snowman19

@GaWx Looks like the Euro is doing well with Nino 1+2 so far….it showed the peak and drop this month, followed by the warmup (it’s up to almost +2.7C on OISST). It forecasts it remaining steady from here on out at just below +3.0C through January

Agree. I think it hits +2.0C on the weeklies next month. The CFS is out to lunch, as usual. The BOM would not have issued that new disco if they weren’t very confident. They have been ultra conservative with this Nino event and the IOD. IMO this one goes super trimonthly ONI….this one is coming. As for where the forcing is in DJFM? That’s another matter…..

No, it’s off the international average of models .

@Gawx @griteater @Bluewave @so_whats_happening @40/70 Benchmark @brooklynwx99 @raindancewx @Terpeast @mitchnick The BOM has just declared that an El Niño is underway and that it is coupling with the atmosphere. They have also declared that a coupled +IOD is underway. Here is the new detailed discussion: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ They are expecting a super, trimonthly (NDJ) ONI event, here are the month by month graphs: ENSO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#region=NINO34&tabs=Pacific-Ocean IOD: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Something is up, even though it’s initializing too cool, it’s still getting this event to a very solid trimonthly super El Niño, you would expect it to initialize too warm not the other way around. Also, notice the spike in January with that being the warmest month? The Euro also showed the same spike in January, with it being the warmest month as well. I’m wondering if there is some sort of unusual rally with this Nino, with the peak month occurring later than normal?

Posted about it earlier, but this September’s 500mb pattern is exactly matching the strong El Niño September patterns of 1982, 1991, 1997, 2009, 2015. Carbon copy: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1703773438354092041?s=20

@Gawx The new POAMA is actually initializing September too cool, it still gets the event to trimonthly super, although cooled slightly, no more +3.0C projection for January. Has NDJ at +2.4C, +2.7C, +2.8C: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34

Similarities between this September and the Septembers of other previous strong El Niños since 1980 (1982, 1991, 1997, 2009, 2015): https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1703773438354092041?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The current +IOD is gaining strength rapidly and is well coupled. It seems the models are underestimating its ultimate strength too: https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1703380021354606982?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

We just had over 3 years of non stop La Niña conditions/forcing. The atmosphere just doesn’t completely flip on a dime, unlike the ocean. There is a lag, as there always is

@Gawx Think the weekly update tomorrow has ENSO 3.4 up to +1.7C….Your thoughts?

100% believable that we see big strengthening of this El Niño in October and November for the reasons (STJ, IOD, SOI, OLR) I stated above. The “La Niña lag” from the last 3 years appears to be over and the atmospheric coupling with the already impressive oceanic event can feedback and begin. The seasonal changes are only going to serve to accelerate the coupling, as is climo for this time of the year. I agree with @Brooklynwx99 about this

The atmosphere is starting to respond and couple (-SOI, strong STJ, OLR, +IOD) now and not just the ENSO SSTs/subsurface. It appears the Niña “lag” has worn off and it’s all systems go. STJ: https://x.com/brianbledsoe/status/1703087558098583774?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw OLR: https://x.com/climate_earth20/status/1703105141161721870?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw IOD: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1701593677016203359?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Not arguing with that and not sure why Mitch had a problem with that list of strong El Niños since 1940 since 57-58 and 09-10 were 2 of the 7

I get the argument….find any way possible to say this is going to be a cold and snowy winter. Right now it’s “don’t look at the ONI or SSTs” if the MEI drops significantly it will be “don’t look at the MEI” and “there’s more to it than ENSO, other factors will decide this winter” next. Last year we ignored the MEI and PDO. We play the game of find any way humanely possible to predict a cold and snowy winter for the east coast every fall, as predicable as the rising sun

Here’s a real good tweet thread…the temp, snowfall and precip for all the strong El Niños (Dec - Feb) since 1940…there have been 7 of them: https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1702475030909829138?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

He was comparing it to the last strong +IOD event

Here is what makes me confident that we see a period of strong, rapid strengthening of this El Nino come October. This +IOD event is quickly gaining strength, is exceeding the latest forecasts and is very likely to become an overperformer, possibly by a lot. In addition, there is very good atmospheric coupling. +IOD constructively interferes with Nino development: https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1702714891210195266?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Per Paul Roundy: “What’s your thoughts on the MEI.v2? It has 09-10 as the best analogue.” Paul Roundy: “Summer throws it off. This event is very different from 09”. Here’s the tweet: https://x.com/paulroundy1/status/1702489522234101828?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/dantejmancini/status/1702483912834904069?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Amy Butler thinks the SSW last winter actually increased and sped up the transport of water vapor into the NH’s stratosphere. I think a few factors will be at play with the stratosphere this coming winter…El Nino, +IOD, high water vapor from Hunga Tonga, solar. Here’s Amy’s tweet: https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1702433306846073309?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Because we really have no analogs for an event like this, all that can be done is an educated guess. The hypothesis is that this will cool the Arctic stratosphere leading to +NAM, cold stratosphere and strong SPV. This is what happened in the southern hemisphere where the effects were felt first, before it propagated into the northern hemisphere (now). The only way to test this theory and also see if it has the same effect as it did in the SH, is wait to see what happens this coming winter

@40/70 Benchmark @griteater Here are the stratospheric experts on Hunga Tonga, huge amounts of water vapor currently in the northern hemisphere’s polar cap: https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1702431321690456472?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1702433306846073309?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1702434768946675734?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Saw that, still quite a bit of time before the normal climatological peak for the OHC (November). Going to be a wait and see for the next 2 months….I’m still confident it gets to +2 or better. October is probably the month we see the big uptick with a substantial DWKW/WWBs

I agree with you. Look at the projected pattern the end of this month, this looks like a classic La Niña to some people?? With a juiced STJ screaming across the CONUS??? Here: https://x.com/empirewx/status/1701940678731645183?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The projected late September pattern looks anything but La Niña like. Raging STJ https://x.com/empirewx/status/1701940678731645183?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw