snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Big jump, back to well over 200. When you combine this with the MJO propagation to the Maritime Continent later this month, my guess is another shutdown of Atlantic TC’s
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@Stormchaserchuck1 @GaWx Any update on September’s QBO number yet?
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@Gawx Here comes another solar spike. Very large sunspot group showing up with major flares. Radio flux and geomag also going up Also, the IOD got more negative (-0.39), all models now showing it on the negative side of neutral going into November, increasing confidence in a weak CP event going into winter: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean
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EWB right smack dab in the middle of 3.4. More support for a central-based/CP event growing: Eastern Region 3:
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In the last 30 years, nothing can compare to those 6 winters (95-96, 02-03, 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15). For the most part, they all tipped their hand by the end of November then it was “bombs away” for months, in most cases right through the beginning of April. The exception being 10-11 which shut off and ended in February. Had it kept going, I have no doubt we would have beaten 95-96
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Agree. I would also add 02-03 to that list
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Big Aleutian ridge/high signal
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The problem I see with 13-14 and I know you have discussed it several times is the PDO configuration (basically +PDO). IMO, the North PAC SSTs have to change big time and very quickly for that to become a viable analog. That PDO configuration lead to the -EPO/-WPO and at times very strongly +PNA. The AO/NAO was wall to wall strongly positive; all PAC/+TNH driven. The MJO forcing was also very different, it was also a cold-neutral/La Nada
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Correct. Weak Niña aside, @bluewave found a pretty strong correlation to weak MJO forcing in phases 4-6 in October. As of now, that is what the models are showing happening. Of course, that can change though
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If @bluewave indicators hold, it definitely doesn’t look promising. Weak CP La Niña and the progged weak MJO 4-6 forcing starting around mid-October…..
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2007 is way better than some of the other ones floating around social media (83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18, 20-21)
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Oh jeez you’re right. Must be a glitch this morning, the bottom one is up to date. Still a very CP signature
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Amazing how fast the subsurface warmed and went to a purely CP signature. There’s actually +5 anomalies just below the eastern ENSO regions now….
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Agree. Once the MJO pushes into the Maritime Continent again (albeit weakly into phases 4-6), we very likely see another lull in the Atlantic with compensatory sinking air over the basin. By then we will be into mid-late October, so starting to get very late for any hyperactivity at that point in time as we get closer to November
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Sorry, I work double shifts to pay off all the loans I took out for that wedding
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One thing is for sure, this La Niña definitely looks like a central-based/CP event now. The only cold subsurface water left is in region 3.4 @40/70 Benchmark
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I’m starting to get a good idea of where we are headed for winter. Going to wait until the beginning of November to make a final guess and write something up here, but safe to say my analogs are not going to be 83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 or 20-21……
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Would not surprise me at all to see a final Atlantic ACE of 90-110 come 11/30
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Strong -PMM developing and quickly….
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I was kind of doubting an official Niña for awhile but the recent cooling and projected cooling/EWBs in region 3.4 coming up, along with the rapidly developing -PMM, -IOD, severely -PDO, the SOI finally going positive (albeit weakly), the MEI coupling and the continued Niña background forcing state (OLR), gives me confidence that we do see an official weak La Niña (ONI)
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The ensembles are showing a huge ridge developing from just east of Japan to the western Aleutians and a big vortex in the GOA at the beginning of October. If correct, we are going to see strong upwelling and cooling of the SSTs in the GOA
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Here comes the next round of SST warming from east of Japan to the western Aleutians. Positive feedback cycle
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Looks very likely now that we see a weak, central-based La Niña (ONI). The RONI is a different story. The MJO is going to traverse back to the Maritime Continent (phases 4-6) next month and we are going to start seeing the enhanced trades/EWBs again and the SOI should rise. The PMM and IOD going negative only lends more support to Niña development…the -PDO goes without saying
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The February, 2008 storm wasn’t even that “big”, just over 6 inches for NYC, biggest storm of that winter at least
