snowman19

Once the DWKW has time to do its dirty work, it’s going to rise further

That one is different from the SAI obviously, which Judah has been pessimistic about

Nino 3.4 at the highest of the event (OISST) at +1.73C, CRW at over +1.8C, also the highest of the event on that https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

I don’t know how the NAM/AO is going to play out. IMO, all the record volcanic water vapor from Hunga Tonga that has infiltrated the stratosphere is going to play some role. I can’t imagine it not. The question is what?? If you follow Judah’s SAI Siberian snowcover buildup (I know you don’t) and I’m totally indifferent, but that looks like it’s not going to be optimistic at all for -AO. Larry Cosgrove follows arctic sea ice and that also looks well below normal too. I think the high solar flux/solar max is definitely going to play a role, as is the -QBO too, so some conflicting signals. Wait and see now I guess

IMO, the Atlantic SSTs/++AMO don’t support -NAO at all. At no point this fall and even late summer has there been any semblance of a “Tripole” in the SSTs, the New Foundland cold pool (staple of a Tripole) is and has been completely non-existent. This is almost certainly related to the ++AMO, which is record breaking right now. Here is what a tripole looks like: https://www.ilsnow.com/videoblog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/tripole.png Here is what we have and have had, nothing even close to a tripole look: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_natl.png Just from an Atlantic SST perspective, this is not supportive of negative NAO this winter whatsoever IMO

The Euro and a couple of others actually did a decent job showing the region 1+2 peak, cooling and leveling off into the +2’s. They have it leveled off in the +2’s through February. It’s hovering right around +2.5C now on OISST https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

@Terpeast Here is some discussion on the possible effects from the ++AMO this winter:

After the temporary Rossby wave flux from TC Tej, the +IOD is poised to strengthen again with the easterly trades/upwelling picking back up around Indonesia and the downwelling resuming further west off Africa

Put the SOI aside. Did you read the rest of my post? Can you address my other points? And the length of this negative SOI run has certainly been very impressive, @GaWx did a write up on it several days ago

@CoastalWx IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now, Average SOI for last 90 days -10.61 we have this… No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing. 2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies 3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 4. WWBs

He comes across as a dick for sure but he does have a point, this is a massive DWKW and very strong ongoing WWB that is going to result in very substantial warming, strengthening and further coupling of this El Niño event over the next month+

@Bluewave

New downwelling kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. And we have Nino/++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies 3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño 4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru 5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation All of these are consistent with El Niño, and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

I never bought into the SAI after the epic failures over the years TBH I consider it as reliable as arctic sea ice but some do see the value. I’m indifferent

He said nothing about El Niño coupling lol he said only his SAI is acting like a Niña. He flat out admits that he knows little about the intricacies of El Niño. And the Nino has coupled and is strengthening. Not rehashing my post from 2 days ago again

Once the flux from TC Tej wears off the +IOD is going to strengthen again. I firmly believe we top 2019 and 1994 and make a run at topping 1997 too @so_whats_happening @GaWx

IMO it’s a NDJ peak and I still say it’s +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly average. I think the big warming push is just about to start

You might not want to look at the SAI this year. Yesterday, Judah said it looks really bad, bottom feeder and there’s only 5 days left to go. Larry Cosgrove said arctic sea ice is abysmal too

Very pronounced low frequency (El Nino) forcing and coupling present:

Temporary flux from Typhoon Tej. It caused cooling further west in the IO. Extremely unlikely that it peaked and further strengthening will start again once the Typhoon effects wear off. A very well coupled +IOD system is already in place

IMO we see rapid warming in the coming weeks in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. I think we hit +2.0C in early November in 3.4 and we approach or reach +3.0C in region 1+2, we may approach +3.0C in region 3 as well