snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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You ain’t kidding. November is starting to look like a dry as a bone torch-a-rama @Bluewave
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Tomorrow will be the latest in the season I can ever remember having to use my A/C. The earliest was just after St. Patrick’s Day, 2012 when it hit 90 degrees
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The ensembles look like a torch and a continuation of the drought for November
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@GaWx Just looking at the anomalies, the QBO is clearly still strengthening. Last month’s number was +12 and I believe the strongest westerly/positive QBO on record at 30mb was over +15. Wondering if we may rival or top that?
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Just saw 2 raindrops. Now the sun is back out
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November is starting to look like a huge torch month, not only torch, very dry/drought continuing
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November is starting to look more and more like a torch and not only a torch, continued very dry/drought as well. Also on a side note, just eyeballing the QBO anomalies, it’s definitely still strengthening positive
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We are completely blowing the 01-02 drought out of the water
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The models are nothing more than showers for Friday and Monday/Tuesday. Would not be surprised to see them dry out more. I honestly cannot remember a period that was this dry for this long in my life
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Probably his worst bust ever. And he refused to give it up. Months and months of him insisting that the east was about to plunge into an arctic tundra. “Vodka cold is coming!” If there ever was a winter that was toast in November that was the one. November was an epic dry torch, that set the tone for the next 4 months and it was game over. Right through the end of March
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With how things have been going since late August, would anyone actually be surprised if this modeled “rain event” for early November verifies as nothing more than some showers?
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I’ll leave that one to @GaWx He’s done a bunch of research into it
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It sure has…over 250 and climbing. There’s a chance we go over 300
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So we are going to end up with a perfectly normal October SAI. Not that it mattered anyway. We spoke about it before but 14-15 rendered the entire high SAI = -AO and -NAO argument bogus. A record high SAI in 2014 and one of the most positive AO and NAO winters on record
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@Gawx
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We have left the record dry fall of 2001 in the dust
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Dry as a bone the next 2 days with super low dews. Inevitably some moron will toss a cigarette out of their car and start a huge brush fire. Never fails
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You were right, didn’t take long for the +AMO look to come back. And the dry period since this fall has been astounding, when you compare it to other dry -PDO’s:
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Thoughts on the +EPO/Bering Sea vortex?
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Typical Nina/-IOD forcing developing @Bluewave
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If the overnight ensemble runs are correct about the upper level pattern at the beginning of November, whatever tropical development happens will have no way of making it up the coast. Strong westerlies all the way into the Deep South. Any TC development would get shunted right OTS. Not much of a surprise though as that is typical of November
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I think we see the anomalous dry conditions continue right through the end of November and it ends up another record dry month. I don’t believe the GFS fantasy of a tropical cyclone coming up the coast for one second. Besides not fitting November climo, the models show the normal seasonal progression of the westerlies well south by the beginning of the month. A dry feedback loop is firmly in place now
