snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Obviously
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That’s true, however, the claims of a full scale regime shift of the PAC and Atlantic that some in the Twitter crowd are making right now are ludicrous. A pattern change projected by the models the last few days of this month into the beginning of December doesn’t = full scale PAC and Atlantic regime shift. Those don’t happen within 2 weeks
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I don’t know if what we’re seeing is related to a temporary and transient flux in the longwave pattern due to the sudden, unexpected (and very strong) WWB altering the Rossby wave train and subsequently causing a +AAM spike or the start of something bigger. It’s going to take more than a pattern shift from 10/28 into the 1st week of December to figure that out. We are going to have to wait until we are into December to see what or if anything changes. The wild claims on twitter that the PDO is about to go positive is absurd. The PDO is still extremely negative, just not the record breaking -3 anymore. And the WPAC warm pool is still there. While I’m open to anything at this point, I’m definitely not ready to completely abandon my winter forecast or say that the PAC or Atlantic is having a full scale shift This is not about to magically flip to a +PDO:
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WxTwitter has decided that the early December is “locking in” for the winter. The hype is off the charts. I think some people may end up looking really stupid….. @MJO812”locking in for the winter”. Really dangerous making definite proclamations like that. Sets them up to look really ridiculous
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Agree. The maps spreading all over twitter right now showing accumulating snow into NYC are completely laughable. People don’t know how to look at soundings, only the pretty 10:1 ratio snow maps. NWS Upton is not expecting any accumulating snow whatsoever within 35 miles northwest of NYC
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@mitchnick Here’s phases 6-7, Neutral, December:
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My guess is that the tail end of November into the start of December is “hangover” from the big WWB event we just saw. Once that wears off, the question becomes, are we then at the mercy of the MJO? Because if we do in fact see an MJO 3-7 pass with amplitude in December, we are going to go into a mild pattern on the east coast. All 5 of those phases are warm here. One of the 1st signs I would look for is the SE ridge/WAR suddenly getting stronger on modeling. But again, maybe we see some strange mismatch this year? The only way to know for sure is to wait and see like you said. And based on the RONI, we are in a La Niña despite what the old, traditional ONI may be “saying”. The warm tropics are clearly skewing the old indexes
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Region 1+2 in an El Niño….yea, looks like an east-based La Niña to me lol Anyway, as you know, because of AGW, the RONI may be a better measure of what ENSO is really doing right now and FWIW the models are still showing a strong EWB in region 3.4 coming up RONI: And as far as the MJO/tropical forcing, if the models are correct with a robust wave going from phases 3-7 in December, then we should expect changes in the long range pattern. Unless, there’s some total mismatch like you had alluded to possibly being the case. Here are the composites for MJO phases 3-7 in December with a -ENSO, they are all warm in the east:
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I woke up and expected the 6z NAM to be juiced to hell and showing 6 inches of rain but surprisingly it’s the driest out of every model lol
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As long as it matches with the month and ENSO state. So you would want Phase 6, Dec, -ENSO
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On the flip side of the coin…..There are also others here, who, over the last 10 years have found every way from Sunday to predict cold and snowy winters. Every year, without fail, no matter what the evidence, you just look at the name and you know they’ve found a new excuse to go cold and snowy. So it really does go both ways
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DT also presented some good evidence a few years ago that very strong +QBO’s (which we have) lead to a raging PAC jet
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If this is indeed a temporary, transient flux from the WWB then we should see the long range models start changing the PAC within the next week or so Edit: @bluewave @GaWx You can see the new ensembles starting to trend stronger with the SE ridge/WAR as we get closer in time. Alan Huffman’s analysis appears to be correct
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The ensembles have definitely cut back QPF area wide since yesterday morning but are still more than we have seen in months. The GEFS is less than an inch, GEPS is around an inch, EPS is just over an inch and the NWS blend of models is around an inch
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If I’m wrong I’m wrong and I’ve been wrong many times before and if you’re wrong I would never insult you, troll you or make fun of you. I don’t play that game
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Dancing naked holding hands? Really disgusting and uncalled for. Classy.
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Those snow maps are completely bogus. Junk. Sell them like they are on fire. The soundings and that midlevel setup aren’t snow anywhere in this area but maybe the mountains of northern New England. Just be grateful it’s actually going to rain
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If that’s where the MJO forcing/wave is indeed going to be and going to be that strong, then expect the long range models for early December to change in the next several days. And either Joe Bastardi’s new favorite model (the CFS) is going to score a big coup with the projected huge EWB and rapid Nina strengthening it has for December or it’s totally out to lunch
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There is a town north of me in Orange County called Greenwood Lake. They have an out of control wild fire that looks like something from out west. It’s insane up there
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IF (and it’s a big if) the models can keep this new idea of the closed cutoff upper low and secondary surface development then this week would be the best chance at over .50 of rain we’ve had since mid-August. With the way things have gone since then, I would view these new solutions with caution This is the NWS blend of models: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nbm&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2024111706&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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The record drought and warmth since August aside for a minute. Here is another warning sign for winter:
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This still looks like nothing more than FROPA with GOM influx completely cut off. I expect the drying trend to continue. Take the under on this one
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The record drought and warmth since late August being 2 big warning signs….This right here is a BIG red flag. Warning bells going off, but it will be ignored by some
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The tropical forcing progression in December is going to be completely unsupportive of an east coast trough. Does it change in January? Going to have to wait and see
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Yes I agree. December is starting to look like a very warm month. MJO forcing in warm phases (-IOD, -PDO, -ENSO = +EPO/-PNA, neutral WPO) and the SPV is about to go on steroids (+NAO/+AO). The entire subseasonal picture looks warm to very warm, PAC side, Atlantic side, arctic side. Question becomes does it change come January?
