snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Strongest WWB/DWKW of this event. We are very likely 8+ weeks away from the El Niño peak….
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A few things, this WWB/DWKW is major and this Nino is not peaking/peaked right now, the peak doesn’t likely happen until late December or January, more warming is coming and substantial warming at that Further this +IOD is still very much alive and very well coupled, very strong atmospheric response
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Yes I do and I don’t think it peaks until late December or January
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CPC just updated the official weekly readings, Nino 3.4 over +1.8C…. Nino 1+2: +2.2C Nino 3: +2.1C Nino 3.4: +1.8C Nino 4: +1.4C And this is BEFORE the DWKW/WWB warming currently in progress has yet to take effect. This one is going super. It’s coming https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
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I don’t like to speak in absolutes about weather but this El Nino/+IOD is going to run the entire show this winter, I have no doubt. All the talk of a weak atmospheric response is folly IMO
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New Euro run still shows a super El Niño
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Where is all the cold though? The SE is “cool/cold” from solar irradiance, clouds, precip from the roaring STJ overhead
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Better hope we get something from the El Niño this winter because it looks like we go right back into yet another La Niña once this event is all said and done
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Ben Noll always uses OISST not CRW. With weeks and weeks of warming (WWBs/DWKWs) yet to go, it’s obvious at this point that it’s going to exceed +2.0C. @roardog He used the CRW SST map yes, but he uses OFFICIAL readings (OISST). The last OISST on cyclonicwx was in the verge of going above +1.8C. Nice troll
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Closing in on +1.9C and more warming in the coming weeks, AND the DWKW has yet to be realized….
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Substantial strengthening….
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High confidence we hit +2.0C by mid-month. My guess stands, +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly ONI
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FWIW
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Agreed.
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Unfortunately the Modoki index is going to be on life support. The WPAC has begun cooling significantly and the warmth in 1+2 moved as far west as it’s going to, it moved into the middle of region 3.4 and has stopped there. Also, found this interesting:
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Agreed. I think we definitely top +2.0C in Nino 3.4 within the next 2 weeks, most likely before mid-month we are topping +2.0C. My question is can we sustain +2C for a trimonthly super ONI of +2.1C - +2.3C? I still think yes. Like you said, the WPAC finally, at long last is substantially cooling
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Something is wrong. Look at the run initialization date…October 31, 2024
