snowman19

@bluewave

IMO it peaks late December/January. I don’t think an ONI of +2.1C - +2.3C is far fetched, especially given what is going on right now with the WWB, DWKW, push eastward of the warm water pool east of the dateline. Given the increase in warm water volume and sea level anomalies since the tail end of October, a rather big jump in warming is well within the realm of possibilities over the next month or so

Given the huge eastward push of the warm pool from the very strong WWB and the robust DWKW activity, consistent with high-end strong/super Nino’s, a +2.3C reading would not surprise me at all. All we can do is watch from here on out

We are a stone’s throw away from +2C right now (+1.97C). My guess is within the next week we are over that on the dailies

The warm pool is now continuing to push east of the dateline, WPAC cooling. I have no doubt this goes super ONI probably not by much, my guesstimate stands….(+2.1C - +2.3C Nino 3.4).

Following the Nino script….here comes the raging STJ

You won’t hear that from me, I fully expect the bottom to drop out in February. So far, this Nino is following the strong El Niño/+IOD “script” to a tee….I expect mid-late December to go up substantially, probably a drop early January then the mid-late January thaw, February drop then rise again for early-mid March @griteater My forecast stands….its going super

Right on time, here it comes:

The warm pool has moved east of the dateline now. I’m at a loss for words that people actually think this Nino already peaked and is weakening, you have a massive WWB and DWKW continuing. Someone/someones are going to botch this Nino forecast very, very badly. The camps on this are worlds and I mean worlds apart

The WCS 3.4 data is matching up perfectly with the NWS CPC data. It was also +1.8C on the Monday update. That is definitely the official OISST measurement, the CPC isn’t going to publish bogus info

As of yesterday on WCS the region 3.4 OISST warmed to +1.88C, warmed +0.2 in the last week. This WWB event according to Paul is massive and the DWKW is record breaking. There is also very substantial warming of the WPAC. The trade winds look not only to die but a trade wind reversal appears to be in the works:

Interesting , shows an area of +3C anomalies in regions 3.4 and 3….

From the latest BOM update: “The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. The IOD index is +1.55 °C for the week ending 5 November 2023. The weekly IOD index values for this event have been the second-highest since records for the Bureau SST dataset began in 2001, with the highest values occurring in the strong positive IOD event of 2019. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the week ending 5 November show warmer than average waters in much of the western half of the tropical Indian Ocean, as well as south of 15°S. Conversely, the eastern pole of the IOD was cooler than average, with a notable area of cooler waters extending off the coast of Java. This shows a clear gradient between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean that is typical of a positive IOD. Compared to last fortnight, the extent of the cooling has reduced but the strength of the cooling close to the Java coastline has increased. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the positive IOD event is likely to continue into December. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia. When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia.” http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

A few mets have opined that the -PDO/-PMM (extremely unusual) have muddied the MEI and we are also coming off a multi year La Niña cycle. We haven’t seen an event develop like this in a very long time, the MEI is biased towards more present events. I believe Paul mentioned that this Nino is similar to one we had back in the late 1800’s

If the past is any indicator, this drop at the end of November into early December fits the strong Nino/+IOD script. We will probably see a substantial rise mid-late December

The WWB causing an uptick in +AAM and the lack of any coherent MJO signal is indicative of a strong and strengthening El Nino standing wave/low frequency forcing taking over the tropics: