snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Closing in on +1.9C and more warming in the coming weeks, AND the DWKW has yet to be realized….
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Substantial strengthening….
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High confidence we hit +2.0C by mid-month. My guess stands, +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly ONI
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FWIW
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Agreed.
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Unfortunately the Modoki index is going to be on life support. The WPAC has begun cooling significantly and the warmth in 1+2 moved as far west as it’s going to, it moved into the middle of region 3.4 and has stopped there. Also, found this interesting:
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Agreed. I think we definitely top +2.0C in Nino 3.4 within the next 2 weeks, most likely before mid-month we are topping +2.0C. My question is can we sustain +2C for a trimonthly super ONI of +2.1C - +2.3C? I still think yes. Like you said, the WPAC finally, at long last is substantially cooling
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Something is wrong. Look at the run initialization date…October 31, 2024
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If that’s the case that we can’t get cold water anymore, then how did we just have a 3 year solid La Niña, -PDO with cold water in the GOA and off the west coast and a very strong -PMM with cold waters off of Baja??
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Nino 3.4 about to eclipse +1.8C on OISST with more warming to come: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/sst_graph_nino34.png
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To me, that looks nothing like a classic tripole. For reference…. Tripole: https://www.ilsnow.com/videoblog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/tripole.png
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Nino 1+2 has stagnated above +2C for months now. It’s very likely to continue for another few months, the models have it remaining stagnated, holding above +2C right through February. While it definitely has peaked and is not going to +3C again, it’s unlikely to drop below +2C for any length of time into February. In fact, it’s going through some warming again right now https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png
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Didn’t you hate the CFS because it was showing a torch winter with no blocking?
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Zero chance of this Nino ever becoming a Modoki. Another wishcast fantasy fail from JB. Bust-a-Rama:
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Nino 3.4 is at the warmest daily reading on OISST since this event started back in March (+1.74C) https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png
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Here’s some good +IOD/El Nino info going back over 50+ years:
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I know there’s different opinions on it but the Hunga Tonga water vapor in the stratosphere…..I honestly cannot imagine it having no effects at all this winter. No one can say for sure what they will be, but I find it extremely hard to believe that a record volcanic water vapor saturated stratosphere will have zero impact on the SPV and the state of the NAM
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The +AMO aside, what do you make of the total lack of a tripole signature? We have had +AMO with a tripole signature in the past, however, this fall, it’s been totally non existent. The research has shown a strong correlation with the New Foundland cold pool/tripole and subsequent -NAO. We have had a strong New Foundland to Europe warm pool thus far
