snowman19

The warm pool has moved east of the dateline now. I’m at a loss for words that people actually think this Nino already peaked and is weakening, you have a massive WWB and DWKW continuing. Someone/someones are going to botch this Nino forecast very, very badly. The camps on this are worlds and I mean worlds apart

The WCS 3.4 data is matching up perfectly with the NWS CPC data. It was also +1.8C on the Monday update. That is definitely the official OISST measurement, the CPC isn’t going to publish bogus info

As of yesterday on WCS the region 3.4 OISST warmed to +1.88C, warmed +0.2 in the last week. This WWB event according to Paul is massive and the DWKW is record breaking. There is also very substantial warming of the WPAC. The trade winds look not only to die but a trade wind reversal appears to be in the works:

Interesting , shows an area of +3C anomalies in regions 3.4 and 3….

From the latest BOM update: “The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. The IOD index is +1.55 °C for the week ending 5 November 2023. The weekly IOD index values for this event have been the second-highest since records for the Bureau SST dataset began in 2001, with the highest values occurring in the strong positive IOD event of 2019. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the week ending 5 November show warmer than average waters in much of the western half of the tropical Indian Ocean, as well as south of 15°S. Conversely, the eastern pole of the IOD was cooler than average, with a notable area of cooler waters extending off the coast of Java. This shows a clear gradient between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean that is typical of a positive IOD. Compared to last fortnight, the extent of the cooling has reduced but the strength of the cooling close to the Java coastline has increased. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the positive IOD event is likely to continue into December. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia. When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia.” http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

A few mets have opined that the -PDO/-PMM (extremely unusual) have muddied the MEI and we are also coming off a multi year La Niña cycle. We haven’t seen an event develop like this in a very long time, the MEI is biased towards more present events. I believe Paul mentioned that this Nino is similar to one we had back in the late 1800’s

If the past is any indicator, this drop at the end of November into early December fits the strong Nino/+IOD script. We will probably see a substantial rise mid-late December

The WWB causing an uptick in +AAM and the lack of any coherent MJO signal is indicative of a strong and strengthening El Nino standing wave/low frequency forcing taking over the tropics:

Agreed. This event has obviously NOT peaked and it’s going to strengthen further

The WCS daily update is still +1.8C as 11/13

The new CPC update has it at +1.8C and so does WCS (OISST). Given the ongoing WWB, the trades projected to die off, the DWKW and the SOI at over -30, it’s extremely unlikely this peaked already

Unfortunately, the official reading is +1.8C from the new CPC update less than an hour ago. We go by those numbers. Argue with them if you think it should be lower. :-) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

WCS would absolutely be correct, the other ones are out to lunch. The CPC just updated, Nino 3.4 is +1.8C

It would honestly be unbelievable if we get a high-end strong/super El Niño and don’t see El Nino forcing all winter, I don’t want to say impossible but VERY highly unlikely, very….

IMO January is probably a lot overdone. I don’t think February is though

If it plays out like this, it fits perfectly with the Eric Webb strong El Niño/+IOD composite of a drop the tail end of November/early December. Then it goes way up mid-late December, drop early January, big thaw mid-late January, big drop for February then another big rise to end winter for early-mid March. If this animation doesn’t scream El Niño then I don’t know what does….raging STJ with Nino convection firing on the equator:

If Webb’s progression is accurate, we see a drop at the tail end of this month into the beginning of December, then a big rise mid-late December, a brief drop early January, then a big thaw mid-late January, the bottom falls out for February, then right back up for early-mid March. If we do in fact see a decent 4 weeks in February (i.e.: Feb, 2021), even if it’s only one big storm, I don’t think anyone would be complaining given how bad the last several winters have been….

Pretty good evidence from Eric Webb that February is going to be the real winter month, looks like December is above normal (as expected), drop early January, then according to this mid-late January has a major thaw, then winter drops in come February. March looks like it warms back up above normal if this one follows the past progressions