snowman19

Mike Masco is a weenie met too lol HM dropped off the face of the planet. I hope he’s ok. It’s extremely weird that he’s nowhere to be found. He’d normally be all over a major Nino event like this. Shame @Isotherm doesn’t post here anymore either, another great met

No, wrong. Quite the opposite, high geomag corresponds to +NAO/+AO actually. Tony Pann is a weenie met just like Bastardi, Margavage, Margusity, Steve D and more recently Cosgrove

@Jbenedet The final El Niño strengthening/warming period looks to be roughly 12/10 - 12/31 (late December) when the MJO enters the Pacific, constructively interferes and causes what should be a very substantial WWB and DWKW. It will have an extremely warm subsurface and OHC to work with. Think this is when the trimonthly super ONI is achieved

@Gawx As suspected, Nino region 3.4 warmed back up over +2C on OISST so temporary day to day flux like we thought https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png Also, strong +IOD still in place, looks like it’s going to stay positive until sometime later in January when it reaches neutral:

This is going to be one of the strongest El Niños since 1980. In the top 4 in the last 43+ years actually. This one will go down with the big guns (82-83, 97-98, 15-16). It may get close to 82-83’s strength when all is said and done, but I think it takes 4th place, maybe not by much. 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 23-24, in that order. Just looking at what this El Niño has done to the global heat budget…moved the +30C warm pool east of the dateline through a massive (record) WWB and DWKW, +2C SSTs in Nino regions 1+2, 3, 3.4….if anyone thinks a Nino of this strength would stay “uncoupled” then I don’t know what to say (don’t think anyone here is suggesting that?). That would be completely delusional. No one should make any mistake about it, this Nino will make its presence felt in a HUGE way this winter. It will be the main player, by far and the atmospheric response will be overwhelming and I’d have to agree it will be extreme. This is a real good illustration of just how intense this event is:

@GaWx This is a testament to just how strong this event is:

The final “push”/strengthening next month is the one that gets it to a trimonthly super ONI IMO. I’ve a been thinking a late December/early January peak since October

Looks like one more month to go of El Niño strengthening, big WWB event next month, then it starts to decay come January. Not unexpected:

@Bluewave @Gawx Very likely we see more big warming in December, here’s why:

Yea, besides the projected WWB activity to come and the MJO related assist, I think the feedback process is there and entrenched for further strengthening in December. Also, significant warming ongoing in region 1+2, with the oceanic kelvin wave surfacing off South America. IMO this pushes west https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

Yea, think a NDJ peak may be a possibility. As of today, I have no reason to change my forecast guess

Saw that. Question is, is this a temporary day to day flux like we’ve seen a bunch of times during this event (warming/cooling) or something bigger? Let’s see what it does into the weekend. If it continues to drop steadily into Saturday/Sunday then maybe something is going on. If I had to guess this is transient and it warms back up again given the big synoptic picture of everything right now but I could be wrong. Going to give it to the weekend to see if this drop doesn’t stop and hold or start warming again

As suspected, 3.4, 3 and the OHC have increased. Probably going to need to see a +2.4C reading next month in order for a super trimonthly ONI to verify. An ONI of +1.9C (at least) looks like a given now. Region 1+2 has just started to warm again as the Kelvin wave surfaces, I expect next week’s reading to reflect that. Probably one month left before we know for sure

It’s wait and see now. This latest record WWB already did the dirty work of pushing the warm pool east of the dateline, causing a big DWKW which warmed the subsurface and surface and pushed up the OHC. The follow up WWBs in December don’t have to be massive in order to warm 3.4 further. Minor ones will do. Like I said, IMO a +1.9C ONI is pretty much a given, some more work needed for a super trimonthly but not much. As suspected with the thermocline response, the kelvin wave is starting to surface off SA, region 1+2 has started to rewarm

Right. Like Paul Roundy pointed out, up until the end of November, we had weak WWBs the entire event which reduced the normal wind evaporation cooling as they went by….this lead to a much warmer and expansive warm pool, which this latest massive WWB has pushed east of the dateline. The DWKW was no slouch either. At this point I’d say a trimonthly ONI of AT LEAST +1.9C is almost a certainty and a super peak has become a very real possibility….more so than at any other point in this event. It all depends on what happens with the follow up WWBs and region 3.4 SSTs over the next month

That area of +31C east of the dateline is very significant as is the OHC uptick. Big reservoir of very warm subsurface water available to warm the 3.4 SSTs further as we go into December. Looks like the DWKW/WWB response and rewarming in region 1+2 is starting to happen now as the kelvin wave starts to surface

The fact that he said super is not happening means it definitely is now. The kiss of death has spoken lol Anyway, you and I actually aren’t that far apart in our trimonthly ONI guesses. You think it’s going to be +1.9C. I think it’s going to be around +2.2C. We have another month to watch it, the peak should be in the end of December/early January time frame

The RMM charts are going to be sketchy at best. The El Nino standing wave/low frequency forcing has taken over. This is a clear sign that it is very strong/strengthening and is completely dominating the tropical convective forcing right now. There is some Pacific MJO activity which is constructively interfering with the Nino and serving to strengthen it further (warming and coupling). This is also what is going to help drive the upcoming flip to a +AAM regime starting around the end of the 1st week of next month

Even if the weak SPV forecasts are correct, it would have to get weak and downwell into the lowest part of the stratosphere and couple with the troposphere to produce the desired result. A +AAM regime setting up would definitely support a Nino response on the PAC side

Right. Just like your declaration a couple of weeks ago that the Nino was rapidly weakening and falling apart lol

Huge test coming up….Don S @donsutherland1 mentioned this last night…we are about to see a big +AAM spike (Nino forcing) coming up at the end of the 1st week of December as the Pacific MJO wave constructively interferes with the El Niño…Do we see a “classic” Nino December response thereafter once the AAM flips positive?

Devil’s advocate, it hasn’t happened yet. Given how horrible the models were last winter, why are we so sure there’s actually going to be this huge west-based -NAO December? Could this not completely fall apart? I mean, it appeared out of nowhere, could it not disappear as we get closer? Would anyone actually be shocked if it did? The EPS isn’t anything like what it used to be. It and the other models have been flip flopping around like fish out of water. I’d be real careful saying a -NAO December is a forgone conclusion given the abysmal performance of the ensembles over the last few winters. They are all “consistently showing it” until they are not. A lot of people have gotten burned doing this over and over again @brooklynwx99 I NEVER said throw it out. You completely and totally missed my point. Omg it’s impossible here sometimes