snowman19

@GaWx Pointed this out, but ERSST is running warmer than OISST. IMO it is still very likely we get an official (unrounded) trimonthly super event for NDJ. My guess is +2.1C for the trimonthly average. Also, even on the extreme cold outlier CDAS, regions 3.4 and 3 are warming steadily right now. Would not be surprised to see OISST up over +2.1C today

It’s not the “classic” Niña RNA/SE ridge pattern we saw last year, that said, the tropical forcing definitely supports -PNA mid-late month. Also, our source region cold/record low snowcover/sea ice will continue to be an issue, no, not as bad as December due to the longwave change in early January, but still no true arctic cold in Canada. It will take a lot of sustained cross-polar flow and snow buildup to fix that. The models are overdoing the early January “cold” IMO and will get warmer as we get closer. While I think it cools off in early January, it’s a cool off from the very warm departures to near normal not “cold”

The +IOD is falling apart very rapidly now. As you said the waters in the eastern IO and around Indonesia are warming very quickly, which is going to promote more convection (MJO) there….convection always fires over the warmest SSTs

This WWB has trended more impressive….

Do we actually believe we see sustained -EPO though? Given the long range -EPO mirages we have seen time and again with these models….color me very skeptical, just like the PAC jet “weakening” only to get stronger as we get closer in time. A Nino of this strength does not support sustained -EPO and @Stormchaserchuck1 posted some very convincing evidence that a +EPO December in a Nino leads to the EPO also averaging positive for January in almost all of the past cases

The IO MJO forcing is going to be competing with the forcing from the Nino standing wave. Eric uses Paul Roundy’s plots to show the atmospheric response leading to the RNA, as he said, this is not a “classic” La Niña RNA with a monster SE ridge. I also think the PAC jet is being badly undermodeled by the long range models as we have seen time and again, the very strong El Niño is only lending more credibility to this. The lack of snowcover/ice is another huge issue for cold. My guess is that January ends up warmer than normal with below average snow. I know you disagree and we are in 2 different camps here. I’m standing by this and we will see how this all works out in a month. If I’m wrong, so be it

I’m not buying a cold and snowy January, for a few reasons. Top of my list….the ridiculously low (record low actually) snowcover and arctic sea ice on our side of the pole and the fact that all the arctic cold is locked over in Eurasia. I don’t buy the long range models which are already correcting warmer. And lastly, come the 1st week of January, we are going to see competing forcing….a strong MJO wave moving into the IO and the very strong El Niño standing wave….this leads me to believe we very well may see an RNA pattern develop mid-late month, not on the level of last December’s RNA, but -PNA none the less. I also believe the PAC jet will verify stronger than the models are showing. Got to give credit to @bluewave for always pointing out the models underestimating the PAC jet in the long range. February is an entirely different matter and I’m still thinking that month produces, for now….

If you read the new CPC MJO update, they are expecting the MJO forcing to re-emerge in the IO (due to the +IOD weakening) in January. So competing forcing between that and the El Niño standing wave. The MJO remains active, with the enhanced convective phase now over the Pacific, where it is constructively interfering with the El Niño base state. • A strong westerly wind burst event is developing over the equatorial Pacific near the Date Line in response to the MJO-related enhancement. • The atmospheric response to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has strengthened after being disrupted by the MJO in early December. • Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the signal propagating quickly across the Western Hemisphere during Week-1, returning to the Indian Ocean by Week-2. This evolution is on the fast end of the MJO spectrum, and may also reflect a further weakening of the IOD event. • The MJO may contribute to Pacific TC development during Week-1, with Indian Ocean development on both sides of the Equator becoming more favorable during Weeks 2-3. • Pacific MJO events are associated with a pattern change towards increased troughing over the CONUS during the Weeks 2-3 period; however, given the placement of the strong WWB near the Date Line, conditions consistent with the ongoing El Niño response seem to be most likely. Link to disco: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

More evidence that this Nino is about to warm and strengthen further….Per the new CPC MJO update, a strong WWB is developing, MJO constructively interfering with El Niño: • The MJO remains active, with the enhanced convective phase now over the Pacific, where it is constructively interfering with the El Niño base state. • A strong westerly wind burst event is developing over the equatorial Pacific near the Date Line in response to the MJO-related enhancement. • The atmospheric response to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has strengthened after being disrupted by the MJO in early December. • Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the signal propagating quickly across the Western Hemisphere during Week-1, returning to the Indian Ocean by Week-2. This evolution is on the fast end of the MJO spectrum, and may also reflect a further weakening of the IOD event. • The MJO may contribute to Pacific TC development during Week-1, with Indian Ocean development on both sides of the Equator becoming more favorable during Weeks 2-3. • Pacific MJO events are associated with a pattern change towards increased troughing over the CONUS during the Weeks 2-3 period; however, given the placement of the strong WWB near the Date Line, conditions consistent with the ongoing El Niño response seem to be most likely. @bluewave They expect MJO forcing to go to the IO in January, so competing forcing with the Nino standing wave. Surprise surprise! Link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

Snowcover on our side of the pole would be bad for late November let alone late December. This is abysmal too:

Still enough warmth in the tank to see a final big spike in temps in regions 3.4 and 3 going into early January with this MJO induced WWB. Still hovering above +2.0C @40/70 Benchmark Try pressing the “translate to English” option, not that you should really need it if you look at the charts he’s showing

We are in a never ending loop, relentless. The WPAC is ridiculously warm for a strong/super El Niño and now we are losing the +IOD. So the forcing progression into January leads to this

He’s the kiss of death. He had a big winter last year too

This MJO associated WWB is almost certainly going to warm and strengthen the El Nino further, it actually looks rather healthy now. @bluewave The never ending saga. As is normal in December, the +IOD has really started to weaken this month and will probably be neutral come late January and of course the WPAC is warming right back up again @Gawx The POAMA has finally come back to reality. The new run is showing January at +2.1C now after the outlandish +3.0C readings it had a few months ago. IMO this is definitely possible given the current conditions (WWB/MJO). I think it starts decaying around mid-January

Extremely likely now that this El Niño peaks as a “low-end” trimonthly super event for NDJ. As per @Gawx the official ERSST that NOAA uses has been running even warmer than the OISST. We probably see something like a +2.1C for the trimonthly average

Did I say it wasn’t going to snow?

No argument from me about stormy (all strong/super El Niños are) and a changing pattern. Here is my issue, it is going to take SUSTAINED cross-polar flow to get arctic cold into Canada. All of the arctic air is on the other side of the pole in Eurasia, that’s not debatable, record low snowcover and record low sea ice on our side of the pole too, also fact, not my opinion. If anyone thinks we are getting arctic cold by the start of January, they are going to be very sorely mistaken. Do we cool down? Sure. I think a seasonal cool down at best into the start of January, not “cold” by any means until Canada changes in a very big way

Bingo!!

Weekly update: Nino 3.4: +2.0C Nino 3: +2.1C Nino 4: +1.4C Nino 1+2: +1.5C

Definitely a slam dunk if the long range 6z op GFS is showing it!!!!

Textbook equatorial “Nino convection” with a strong STJ extending from it. I think it’s safe to say that this event has coupled now

If that proves correct then we are in real big trouble this winter. A +EPO is going to flood our source region with PAC air. You also said you are getting a signal for a largely +NAO…another real bad sign….not that a -NAO/-AO would help anyway in the face of a possible +EPO winter

Yes, we are seeing MJO constructive interference with the El Niño now. On the flip side, the associated WWB/DWKW is causing more warming and strengthening of this Nino event. There is still plenty of OHC warmth and subsurface warmth to work with. Both Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 are warming rapidly now. 3.4 is over +2.1C already