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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    @Bluewave Here comes the next jet extension just after mid-month
  2. snowman19
    And don’t use 10:1 ratio maps for a storm like this, use total positive snow depth maps. The 10:1 maps are going to be severely overdone
  3. snowman19
    When you figure that southern branch storms correct their surface low tracks further west/north within the final 78 hours, this has bad news written all over it. Marginal airmass, warm SSTs along the coast still, weakening confluence, boundary level flow coming from the east, surface low tracking close, trough in the west, midlevel lows closing off too close for comfort. Plus, as @bluewave said before, the SE ridge pump is always underestimated in setups like this, as is sneaky warm noses. One you get thunderstorms blowing up in the south, which is guaranteed too happen, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is only going to serve to pump the SE ridge even further. I’ll take the under on this storm, not just for the city and the coast but north and west of the city too. This is an I-84 north special IMO
  4. snowman19
    That is not correct at all. Strong/super El Niño = raging strong/extended PAC jet and +EPO with an east displaced Aleutian Low
  5. snowman19
    What I don’t buy is a sustained -EPO. IMO it flips back positive earlier than anyone is expecting. The models have been notorious for over predicting -EPO’s in the long range for a few years now. An El Niño this strong is not going to allow for sustained -EPO nor will it allow a favorable PAC jet for very long
  6. snowman19
    If the ERSST continues its trend of running warmer than OISST, I would have to say that a trimonthly (unrounded) super peak for NDJ would be an extremely likely result
  7. snowman19
    Will be interesting to see what the 0z op and ensemble runs do tonight but southern branch systems almost always trend further north and west when you get to within 78 hours of start time, sometimes significantly so, which is why you don’t like to see them tracking close at this range. That said, I guess you cannot take suppression totally off the table yet. As far as the follow up storm, that appears to be a pure lakes cutter right now and probably very heavy rain the middle of next week
  8. snowman19
    Not going to lie, that run was kinda shocking. That was way suppressed and OTS, last thing I expected. It also backed way off on the Wednesday night event, not that it was supposed to be much of anything anyway. It’s not like we can say the Euro has a suppressed bias like the GFS either. The disturbing thing is that the 0Z ICON did the same thing only it was even more suppressed than the Euro. Hopefully not the beginning of a trend
  9. snowman19
    Possibly, yes. Then the question becomes the official ERSST, which has been running warmer than the OISST. CRW is over +2.2C FWIW….
  10. snowman19
    @GaWx Thinking tomorrow’s 3.4 weekly update is +2.1C
  11. snowman19
    Agree. The risk with the 7th is inland runner, not OTS/south IMO, risk with the 10th, way far out there though, is cutter then where does it redevelop (if it does)
  12. snowman19
    The only thing that saves it is that gigantic 50/50 low. The pattern out west is trash. Pray the 50/50 is real, without it, it’s an inland runner
  13. snowman19
    Not even remotely close
  14. snowman19
    Let’s see what it does to the weekly number on Monday
  15. snowman19
    One thing is for sure, the folks who were saying that this El Niño already peaked are going to be dead wrong
  16. snowman19
    Awesome call!!!
  17. snowman19
    It’s insane that we have a super El Niño (over +2.2C and still warming) in place, with it peaking into early January and have that pattern showing up mid-late month. Shocking really. Kudos to @bluewave for picking up on it
  18. snowman19
    Looks like the models that showed a final peak in January were correct. The slow decay should start by mid-January
  19. snowman19
    IMO the bigger question is how long can you sustain a -EPO and non hostile PAC jet with an El Niño this strong? If that early-mid month EPO goes bye bye and the jet starts raging, the PAC floodgates open up and our source region goes to hell again. A -NAO/-AO won’t matter in that case because you will be trapping PAC garbage underneath the blocking
  20. snowman19
    You need to move to Fort Kent lol
  21. snowman19
    With one exception….97-98 was actually colder. But in terms of sensible weather, 97-98 is starting to look better and better
  22. snowman19
    IMO early January trends to I-84 north events, I doubt anything at all south of there. The airmass is total garbage
  23. snowman19
    There is nothing to stop the IO and Maritime Continent MJO phases anymore either…the +IOD is rapidly weakening and should be neutral come mid-January
  24. snowman19
    Big difference is that early January, 2016 actually had true arctic air on our side of the pole and a good source region and the PAC actually cooperated, albeit briefly
  25. snowman19
    IMO this winter has a little over 3 weeks to get its act together and put up or shut up if it’s really going to get cold and snowy or it’s not going to happen
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