snowman19

We are in a never ending loop, relentless. The WPAC is ridiculously warm for a strong/super El Niño and now we are losing the +IOD. So the forcing progression into January leads to this

He’s the kiss of death. He had a big winter last year too

This MJO associated WWB is almost certainly going to warm and strengthen the El Nino further, it actually looks rather healthy now. @bluewave The never ending saga. As is normal in December, the +IOD has really started to weaken this month and will probably be neutral come late January and of course the WPAC is warming right back up again @Gawx The POAMA has finally come back to reality. The new run is showing January at +2.1C now after the outlandish +3.0C readings it had a few months ago. IMO this is definitely possible given the current conditions (WWB/MJO). I think it starts decaying around mid-January

Extremely likely now that this El Niño peaks as a “low-end” trimonthly super event for NDJ. As per @Gawx the official ERSST that NOAA uses has been running even warmer than the OISST. We probably see something like a +2.1C for the trimonthly average

Did I say it wasn’t going to snow?

No argument from me about stormy (all strong/super El Niños are) and a changing pattern. Here is my issue, it is going to take SUSTAINED cross-polar flow to get arctic cold into Canada. All of the arctic air is on the other side of the pole in Eurasia, that’s not debatable, record low snowcover and record low sea ice on our side of the pole too, also fact, not my opinion. If anyone thinks we are getting arctic cold by the start of January, they are going to be very sorely mistaken. Do we cool down? Sure. I think a seasonal cool down at best into the start of January, not “cold” by any means until Canada changes in a very big way

Bingo!!

Weekly update: Nino 3.4: +2.0C Nino 3: +2.1C Nino 4: +1.4C Nino 1+2: +1.5C

Definitely a slam dunk if the long range 6z op GFS is showing it!!!!

Textbook equatorial “Nino convection” with a strong STJ extending from it. I think it’s safe to say that this event has coupled now

If that proves correct then we are in real big trouble this winter. A +EPO is going to flood our source region with PAC air. You also said you are getting a signal for a largely +NAO…another real bad sign….not that a -NAO/-AO would help anyway in the face of a possible +EPO winter

Yes, we are seeing MJO constructive interference with the El Niño now. On the flip side, the associated WWB/DWKW is causing more warming and strengthening of this Nino event. There is still plenty of OHC warmth and subsurface warmth to work with. Both Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 are warming rapidly now. 3.4 is over +2.1C already

Here comes the late December MJO constructive interference/WWB we spoke of at the beginning of this month. While not as impressive as the last WWB/DWKW, this would certainly result in more warming and strengthening in the coming weeks given the OHC and the subsurface warmth it still has to work with @bluewave

Besides the record low snowcover on our side of the pole, there is also record low arctic sea ice. Bare ground, open waters….it’s going to be a real challenge to get true arctic air here until this changes in a big way @Bluewave

The current equatorial SOI that @griteater posted the other day, shows that this event is extremely robust and a top tier El Niño, right up there with 72-73, 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16

This isn’t helping either. And make no mistake about it, this Niño is not done strengthening yet. It’s going to warm further. @Bluewave

This is a HUGE problem for cold

The trough is positively tilted as all hell. God speed

If this doesn’t scream “El Nino” then I don’t know what does

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure

That aside, even on the models suddenly showing “something”, look at how positively tilted the trough is on all of them. Good luck with that one