Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,785

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Yea. The 6z Euro soundings show midlevel issues until you get into Orange and Passaic counties. Is it correct? Who knows but it’s been consistent in showing this since last night. It basically has nothing at all along and south of 287. It cut back totals even more than 0z in Rockland and Bergen
  2. snowman19
    If the new 6z op Euro is correct that’s what it going to happen, it has warm nose mixing issues all the way up into Rockland/Bergen counties. It cut snow totals even more than 0z
  3. snowman19
    Agree. The favorable period looks to be 1/15-1/21 then hostile forcing takes over and we see another round of unfavorable PAC/PAC jet extension
  4. snowman19
    It looks good now, but let’s see if that actually holds. IMO we are 15 days from put up or shut up time. If we have nothing come 1/20 and an actual sustained (not a one week, transient) change to colder/snowier isn’t actually happening or definitely, 100% imminent, not “Omg! The long range day 15-30 EPS and the weeklies look amazing! Historic! Just wait!” Then it’s time to think about calling this one a ratter
  5. snowman19
    Agreed and been saying that. Those 10:1 maps are severely overdone. Very marginal airmass in the boundary layer, midlevel warm nose issues (globals are even picking up on that and they’re underdoing it as they always do at this range, look to the mesos on Saturday for those details), the almost certain final correction NW tomorrow…southern stream system, inevitable thunderstorm blow ups in the south pumping the SE ridge last minute, cyclone crashing into the west coast, take the under for this one. I see no reason to change my guess from last night….you are going to have to be 40+ miles NW of the city for this one
  6. snowman19
    Becoming more confident that this is going to be an I-84 north event. Expect further corrections NW on tomorrow’s guidance. IMO there will be little if any snow with this until you get 40+ miles northwest of the city. The airmass is marginal as all heck. Also think there is going to be major midlevel warm nose issues in the metro area….watch the mesos in the last 24 hours, some areas may not even see snow and start as sleet. 10:1 snow maps are going to be laughably inaccurate
  7. snowman19
    The pattern out west is not supportive of suppression
  8. snowman19
    IMO this was never going to be a suppressed storm
  9. snowman19
    The Euro has always done way better with southern branch cyclones. The GFS on the other hand is really horrible and is always wayyy too far SE, then it does huge last minute corrections NW. Time after time
  10. snowman19
    How many times have we seen this with southern branch storms over the years? They trend NW in the final 2 days, not SE. It is extremely likely to adjust further NW come the Thursday and Friday….even the Saturday morning runs. Also, what is going to happen to the SE ridge once we see thunderstorm complexes blowing up in the south? (hint, it’s not going to get weaker). Again, I would not at all be surprised to see this become an I-84 north snowstorm by “game time”. You also have to factor in warm noses that are certain to be an issue with the midlevel lows and are not going to be evident right now. We also have a very marginal airmass in the NYC metro area
  11. snowman19
    The people using 10:1 ratio maps in a setup like this and thinking that’s actually going to verify are going to be shocked at the actual result. They are going to be grossly inaccurate. This is why the total positive snowfall maps are night and day different
  12. snowman19
    Still going. Super ONI trimonthly for NDJ a near guarantee
  13. snowman19
    @Bluewave Here comes the next jet extension just after mid-month
  14. snowman19
    And don’t use 10:1 ratio maps for a storm like this, use total positive snow depth maps. The 10:1 maps are going to be severely overdone
  15. snowman19
    When you figure that southern branch storms correct their surface low tracks further west/north within the final 78 hours, this has bad news written all over it. Marginal airmass, warm SSTs along the coast still, weakening confluence, boundary level flow coming from the east, surface low tracking close, trough in the west, midlevel lows closing off too close for comfort. Plus, as @bluewave said before, the SE ridge pump is always underestimated in setups like this, as is sneaky warm noses. One you get thunderstorms blowing up in the south, which is guaranteed too happen, the latent and sensible heat release aloft is only going to serve to pump the SE ridge even further. I’ll take the under on this storm, not just for the city and the coast but north and west of the city too. This is an I-84 north special IMO
  16. snowman19
    That is not correct at all. Strong/super El Niño = raging strong/extended PAC jet and +EPO with an east displaced Aleutian Low
  17. snowman19
    What I don’t buy is a sustained -EPO. IMO it flips back positive earlier than anyone is expecting. The models have been notorious for over predicting -EPO’s in the long range for a few years now. An El Niño this strong is not going to allow for sustained -EPO nor will it allow a favorable PAC jet for very long
  18. snowman19
    If the ERSST continues its trend of running warmer than OISST, I would have to say that a trimonthly (unrounded) super peak for NDJ would be an extremely likely result
  19. snowman19
    Will be interesting to see what the 0z op and ensemble runs do tonight but southern branch systems almost always trend further north and west when you get to within 78 hours of start time, sometimes significantly so, which is why you don’t like to see them tracking close at this range. That said, I guess you cannot take suppression totally off the table yet. As far as the follow up storm, that appears to be a pure lakes cutter right now and probably very heavy rain the middle of next week
  20. snowman19
    Not going to lie, that run was kinda shocking. That was way suppressed and OTS, last thing I expected. It also backed way off on the Wednesday night event, not that it was supposed to be much of anything anyway. It’s not like we can say the Euro has a suppressed bias like the GFS either. The disturbing thing is that the 0Z ICON did the same thing only it was even more suppressed than the Euro. Hopefully not the beginning of a trend
  21. snowman19
    Possibly, yes. Then the question becomes the official ERSST, which has been running warmer than the OISST. CRW is over +2.2C FWIW….
  22. snowman19
    @GaWx Thinking tomorrow’s 3.4 weekly update is +2.1C
  23. snowman19
    Agree. The risk with the 7th is inland runner, not OTS/south IMO, risk with the 10th, way far out there though, is cutter then where does it redevelop (if it does)
  24. snowman19
    The only thing that saves it is that gigantic 50/50 low. The pattern out west is trash. Pray the 50/50 is real, without it, it’s an inland runner
  25. snowman19
    Not even remotely close
×
×
  • Create New...