snowman19

Did you actually read my post? On 2/7, there isn’t 2 months of winter left. Smh

If we don’t see a very big improvement to an actual good pattern by 2/7 or at least one which is definitely imminent and sustainable (not long range model fantasy) we are probably done. If you look back on past events, strong El Niño March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal, especially early-mid March. Eric Webb’s chart showed this very strong tendency of past events. By late March, we will be fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day

Where do we start on how hostile the end of the month looks for a snowstorm here? AO positive, NAO positive, EPO positive as can be with a huge low over Alaska, WPO positive, MJO in bad phases….the only “plus” is the temporary positive PNA, no arctic cold and you have a juiced PAC jet extension into the west coast which is going to make the flow extremely progressive and deamplify the PNA in short order. Yea, that is not screaming big snowstorm here to me

Best of luck getting an east coast snowstorm with that disaster of a pattern the end of the month. It’s going to take a lot more than a temporary positive PNA to unf*** that cluster

Strong Nino March’s are notorious for being warmer than normal

Here we are on 1/20…..how much snow has NYC had since November 1st, total?

Good luck

Lol at his post. We aren’t just magically turning arctic cold again like flipping a light switch after that huge AK vortex and PAC jet extension floods all of Canada and the CONUS with Pacific maritime air. In 2 weeks we are already into February

Back in Jan/Feb of 1998, we spent the overwhelming amount of time in MJO phase 8 and we all know how well that went for us

It’s not a true Norlun, those occur over New England. A Norlun is a special type of inverted trough: https://norcast.tv/ghost-of-ophelia-coming-back-friday/ https://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html#:~:text=It%20was%20noted%20by%20operational,strong%2C%20localized%20bands%20of%20precipitation.

If Dr. Simon Lee is correct and we go into February with a +NAO/+AO due to the latest unfavorable stratospheric and SPV developments we are in big trouble. You will be at the mercy of strong ++ENSO/El Nino induced PAC jet extensions, MJO waves propogating over phases 4-6 with the WPAC warm pool convection and the -PDO. You are not going to sustain -EPO with a Nino this strong and +PNA does no good when you have +EPO/+WPO and no arctic or Atlantic high latitude blocking over the top

That’s about all it did good on, midlevel warm noses almost always get more aggressive at “game time” like that one was. The ensembles actually did a better job with actual snowfall totals, they had my area at 2.5 inches for 2 days and that was correct

I think they are being generous even saying 3 inches for this. 3 inches is the absolute ceiling for this in our area and if it does happen, I think it’s closer to central NJ. Definitely not widespread here. All of the good lifting and surface convergence is south of us with the inverted trough and the good upper dynamics/diffluence with the jet streak and upper low is also south of here. I believe we are going to have bigger dry air and subsidence issues than people are thinking right now, especially given we are north of the IVT, that is going to probably eat up a decent amount of QPF and it may be a virga fest for awhile at the start

The inverted trough is going to set up south of the area. It’s going to be hard to get enough strong forcing north of that to get more than 1-2 inches here. The best dynamics from the upper low and jet streak look to be south of the metro area, also, the 1005mb surface low way off shore isn’t exactly awe inspiring. And we’re also going to have dry air and subsidence issues to overcome the further north you get from the inverted trough. If the upper trough wasn’t so positively tilted, this probably would have been a major coastal snowstorm

The NAM is an obvious, clear outlier as always. Total trash model. Anyway, this is a 1-2 inch snow event for the area iMO. I don’t think the 3 inch amounts happen until you get into central NJ on south. On the bright side, at least it’s going to snow

I’m starting to think my idea of a good February is about to possibly go into the shitter. Like you said, assuming no -AO/-NAO, we are at the mercy of unfavorable MJO forcing traversing phases 4-6 with the WPAC warm pool, -PDO and a possible GOA/AK vortex (+EPO/+WPO) with PAC jet extensions from the strong +ENSO. +PNA does little good along with a +EPO

If Simon Lee is correct about the NAO and AO going predominantly positive into February, you better pray for sustained -EPO (a real tough proposition with a strong Nino) or it’s definitely game over, even with a +PNA. +EPO = the PAC floodgates into Canada and the CONUS will be wide open with no arctic or Atlantic blocking over the top

The new op Euro and EPS are unimpressed

Sloatsburg….Got around 2 inches of snow and it changed to sleet, graupel and freezing rain even up here. That warm nose was no joke. The Sunday run of the ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) were actually extremely accurate with snowfall totals

If Simon Lee is correct about the NAM/AO and NAO we would definitely need a cooperative PAC (PNA, EPO, WPO) and hope the western ridge isn’t too far west or we would get cutter and inland runner happy. It’s obvious at this point the PDO isn’t going to cooperate….question is ENSO….how long do you sustain a -EPO with an El Niño this strong?

The ensembles (EPS, GEPS, GEFS) are showing another 2-3 inch event Fri/Sat right now. If that’s what actually happens, I don’t think there will be any complaints. We’d be talking possibly 6 inches all together in less than one week in NYC. It’s been years….

Good forecast from the NWS….2-3 inches area wide. We have reached consensus

Why are you using the HRRR at this range?