snowman19

Agreed. I’m giving it until 1/20. If there’s nothing absolutely imminent as far as real cold and a workable PAC at that point (not fantasy cold and snow on the long range models at day 15), then I’m going full ratter and calling my cold/snowy February guess a bust. I don’t care if we get a -NAO/-AO if the PAC is garbage. The *possible* major SSW and split fail and still abysmal snow and ice cover in the source region aside, this isn’t helping either, I don’t see how we magically go to a cooperative PAC/PAC jet with an El Niño this strong: @NittanyWx Thoughts? @bluewave

Just like you and a few others warned, there’s no true cold air, major source region issues….

I don’t think it’s substantial warming, but probably enough to get above +2.1C on the weeklies within the next 2 weeks, then a slow decline

It’s about to peak, probably within the next 2 weeks. That DWKW/WWB/-SOI is going to cause one final round of warming in 3.4 and 3 then it’s over. You can already see the subsurface cold starting to buildup in the WPAC

There have been huge red flags for the last 2 months….the record low snow and ice cover, all the arctic air locked on the other side of the pole in Eurasia and an El Niño with region 3.4 SSTs of over +2C in place since November. There is a load of work that needs to be done in our source region. It’s ugly right now

The El Nino winters that had turnarounds after a completely snowless November/December didn’t do so until either the tail end, last week of January or the beginning of February. If we get to 1/20 and there isn’t a sustained change imminent with actual legit cold (not -NAO/-AO trapping PAC air with a +EPO and screaming fast PAC jet with split-flow blasting into the west coast) then we can start thinking of a 97-98 type redux

You bring up a very good point….does the +EPO and raging fast PAC jet/split-flow give up with an El Niño this strong? This one is all but guaranteed to go down in history with the strongest events of the last 50+ years (72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16). Even if we do see a -NAO/-AO, will it really matter with a crap Pacific? Or will it just trap PAC air underneath the high-latitude blocking?

New ENSO update: Region 3.4: +2.0C Region 3: +2.1C Region 1+2: +1.6C Region 4: +1.4C

Did you actually read my post?? That would classify as “a few” smh

If you look at all the official El Niño winters going all the way back to 1940, that had less than an inch of snow, total on 1/1, only a few got to 20 inches or more for the rest of the season. It’s ugly

He’s been calling for a historic SSWE since November, 2022. Eventually he will get it right. Just keep forecasting (wishcasting) the wrong idea over and over again until the inevitable happens, then claim victory. Margavage, Bastardi, Masco, Margusity, Pann, Steve D, DT and over the last 2 years Cosgrove are the worst of the worst. All they ever do is forecast severe cold and snow and “Woof!” “Alert!” even when it’s blatantly obvious that it’s not coming

That very fast split-flow is going to get stronger….the El Niño is about to peak within the next 2-3 weeks, the SOI has been crashing in the -20’s and -30’s and the WWB is causing regions 3.4 and 3 to warm further, SSTs in those regions have been at “super” (over +2.0C) levels for over a month now @donsutherland1

Yea. The models are probably rushing the RNA, they usually do rush changes, it most likely happens closer to mid-month. There is very good evidence for a mid through late month mild period then possibly a good wintry February. I still think February is good. If you look back at strong/super Ninos, the “good” period for snow/cold doesn’t start until the tail end of January or beginning of February

The very fast split flow aside, we still have the already mentioned source region issues with cold/snow/ice. And the overnight runs of both GEPS and GEFS are developing an RNA pattern by the 8/9th

In other news, the SOI is -36 And CRW, even the CDAS is warming:

Delete your account

Right, “weakening” with a WWB in progress, region 3.4 at over +2.0C and the SOI nose diving to -36 lol https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

When we saw all the arctic air displaced to the other side of the pole in Eurasia, that was a dead giveaway that there were going to be major snow and ice cover issues in our source region. This isn’t just simply low snowcover and ice cover it’s record breaking low. I agree 100%. Without snowcover and ice, the air masses are going to be passing over bare ground and open waters and modifying. Extremely likely that the models are way overdoing the surface/boundary layer cold and will end up correcting warmer as we get closer in time. And the models are definitely going to struggle with the very fast split-flow

It’s the worst since 1980, sea ice is equally as bad. Our source region is going to continue to be a huge problem as is true cold air as @NittanyWx has cautioned over and over

Early January cools down, then we very likely go mild again, RNA, mid-late month given the forcing progression IMO. Do we get “something” early January? Your guess is as good as mine. I still think February probably produces as of right now

The early January cool down is fitting the “script” of past strong/super Nino events to a tee. There is very good evidence (forcing) that come mid-late January we go RNA and it gets mild again. The big question is February. If this one continues as past events have, that will be the wintry month of the winter. Wait and see time now. So far the timeline is fitting perfectly ever since late November. See this:

The SOI nosedived today. -30. Huge drops like this during Ninos typically precede rather dramatic warming spikes @bluewave https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/