snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Very good agreement now (all 3 ensemble suites, EURO, GFS, UKMET, NWS blend of models, FV3, ICON, SREF, RGEM). We’ll say around 2.5 inches of snow as a mean from all of them. The 18z NAM is the clear outlier, but what else is new with that dreadful model. Assuming the CMC drops some at 0z from 12z to match the others if the new RGEM is any clue
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Root for the op EURO/EPS if you want all snow in the NYC metro area. The CMC/NAM/RGEM/ICON/UKMET have midlevel warm nose issues. IMO the EURO suite is going to be the most correct…1-2.5 inches, which would be a nice event considering where we are coming from. I think the GFS adjusts slightly west towards the EURO solution. I think the other models are too amped
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Lack of snow/ice cover, bare ground, wide open Great Lakes is going to modify the cold coming in from the west a lot
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The ICON, RGEM and CMC are all too amped up IMO. The UKMET is a clear outlier. The NAM is total trash, not even worth looking it, it’s already trending towards the EURO/EPS. Nothing has changed in my view, still a 1-2 inch event area wide. The GFS probably comes a bit further west like the EURO the next 2 runs
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After last winter and so far this winter in the NYC metro area……Take the 1-2 inches and run
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IMO nothing supported an amped up coastal hugging/inland running solution for 1/16. Same for 1/20….the risk with that is suppressed and OTS too. The TPV is going to act as a kicker
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You were right about the -PDO and WPAC warm pool months ago. Pretty unbelievable that the west coast is in the freezer during a super El Niño. 72-73 actually turned out to be a much better analog than a lot of people were saying it was going to be
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If I had to guess right now, I’d say a general 1-2 inches total for the area Tues-Wed
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@so_whats_happening Looks like we are seeing the final warming of this event….it probably starts decaying in about a week or so from now
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The Euro is still the best model we have, especially given that it excels during southern branch dominated Ninos. I think that solution is absolutely believable given how fast the southern branch shortwave is moving and the incoming trough acts as a kicker making everything progressive. Everything gets pushed OTS. On the bright side for those who have been wanting cold, it does finally get truly arctic cold on 1/20 after a strong clipper FROPA, which has some snow with it. The Euro brings a piece of the TPV over us. IMO ride the Euro like sea biscuit….
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Typically, the Euro shines during El Niños (southern stream) and the GFS sucks, it does much better in northern branch dominated/Nina winters
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A 1006mb low well off shore doesn’t scream big snowstorm to me especially given where we were yesterday at 12z
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You bring up a real good point, is the “normal” displaced east big GOA vortex just delayed? Hard to believe we have an El Nino this strong and just simply never see a typical strong/super response. Everything about this event has been delayed. (NDJ peak). An event of this strength dramatically alters the global heat budget and is eventually going to feedback. The laws of physics have to kick in at some point I would think, especially given the huge, unprecedented rise in the MEI over the last month, there has to be an atmospheric response in kind
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Barely, nothing at all like yesterday. I thought this was the risk, suppression, OTS, not hug or inland run/cut. Same risk for 1/20 IMO
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I think the -PDO is playing more of a role here than a lot of folks thought initially, as is the WPAC warm pool with MJO waves propagating in the IO and Maritime Continent, which is definitely not the norm for tropical convective forcing with a super El Niño in place
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The GFS loves doing this and the new upgrade did nothing to help the issue. I forget which storm it was (few years ago) but that was the only time I can ever remember the GFS being on its own and scoring a win against the EURO/CMC/UKMET/ICON with showing a possible east coast storm being a miss OTS while the others kept showing hits
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What is your point? Those are snapshots in time. That same blocking pattern and arctic cold happened in January, 2016….remember the historic blizzard? It also went below zero in NYC during that Nino….remember early February, 2016? That same blocking pattern and arctic cold also happened in February, 1983….remember the Megalopolis blizzard? No, it didn’t happen in ‘98 or ‘73 but again, what is the point you are trying to make??
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The EPS and GEPS get very ugly after 1/21. I agree with you that something needs to happen by 1/20. If it doesn’t, to expect some miracle, storybook finish in February would be an extremely tall order. Again, assuming next week’s setup is correct, to get nothing out of that would be quite a shock but I guess stranger things have happened
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Probably haven’t seen a pattern like this since March, 2018. If we don’t get anything from 16/17 or 19/20 it would be shocking, assuming that depicted setup is correct. IMO we do need to get something by 1/21 though, because I do think the pattern gets hostile after that given the MJO wave progression
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I’m not sure what happens in February yet. Going to depend on whether the MJO can propogate in 8-1-2
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Thinking we may see another jet extension late month….El Nino is still at super levels and the models are showing a big ++AAM spike going into late month and early February. The PAC jet may be raging again for awhile. Your thoughts?
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Once again, you have no idea what you’re talking about. This is still going to be an official super El Niño. You lost, admit it. You’re embarrassing yourself right now.
