snowman19

The God awful NAM at the end of its run and at 10:1 ratios. Good luck with that lol

Never said I think it’s going down in flames. I have no idea whether it’s going to be right or not. We’ll know soon though

Enjoy the NYC snowstorm Sun/Mon

Read my frigging post. I didn’t say anyone kicked the can. I said, IF IT (mid-late February) FAILS!!!!!!!!! And IF it does, it’s too late to kick the can at that point. Stop with your attacks everytime you think someone dares to say anything but NYC is going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with feet upon feet of snow

If you live anywhere south of New England, you better pray that the weeklies are right about 2/15 and beyond because that’s put up or shut up time, last shot. You can’t kick the can anymore at that point. Too little, too late. If it fails, good luck punting mid-late February and hoping some storybook miracle happens in March, game over time then

I think the good period is something like 2/15-2/29 then that’s all she wrote (especially south of New England) come early March. Past strong Nino analogs strongly support a substantial warmup early-mid March and this supports that idea as well:

Like you said, God awful setup. Not even worth listing all the negatives. There’s going to be a lot of disapppointed people here, north and west of NYC included. Nothing is good about this storm if you want snow and I’m not saying that because I’m trolling or being a mean person or trying to take away people’s snow. Word to the wise DO NOT use 10:1 ratio snowmaps with this event. They are going to be so grossly inaccurate it’s not going to be funny. Use the positive snow depth change maps only, if they aren’t available on Pivotal, use Kuchera. We will be lucky to see 5:1 ratios, even north and west of NYC

Barely anything: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2024012500&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

I can buy a better pattern post 2/15 for a couple of weeks. All the way to mid-March? Color me very, very skeptical. Early-mid March torches in strong El Niños. It’s an extremely strong signal actually looking back on past events, as strong a tendency as December torching during strong Ninos in fact

I agree. The pattern is absolutely awful but I guess stranger things have happened. Could very well be the op Euro being too amped, given that the EPS isn’t as aggressive, also the UKMET, which is normally way too amped at this range is well east of the op Euro. The GEFS and GEPS also aren’t that impressive. Wait and see now

Real good question, the models are showing it getting in phase 8 President’s Day weekend but is it real or just another false alarm like we’ve seen the past few years? You’re right about the furnace SSTs in phase 7, does it stall out there? We won’t know for sure until we get into February

I guess you missed Walt’s post about the Euro right above this. Still a nothing event for snow in the NYC metro

I have a feeling if this change is going to be real, the models are rushing it and it probably happens post Valentine’s Day

If you assume the models are correct and are rushing the pattern (as they almost always do) the actual change probably happens closer to mid-February/ 2/15, again, assuming they are correct

Whether or not we see a “turnaround” at mid-February remains to be seen but the clock will really be ticking at that point. I see no reason to believe that March will be cold and snowy just based on history. If you look back on past strong El Niños, early-mid March turned warmer than normal. A very strong tendency for that in fact

Read Judah Cohen’s blog. The SPV is about to go on roids and the stratosphere gets ice cold by the start of February. We are in big trouble

And that model is playing right to its usual bias of suppression and too far east at this range. I’m sure everyone is shocked

Besides the glaring antecedent cold air issues, the setup is absolutely horrible, the trough orientation, NAO, AO, EPO, WPO, MJO, PAC jet, NO 50/50 low, the only thing it has going for it is a temporary +PNA spike that gets crashed into by the raging PAC jet extension, which deamplifys it and makes the pattern extremely progressive. Hard sell on a snowstorm anywhere near the NYC metro area 1/28-1/30

He’s saying late February and March actually. If we follow the same pattern progression as December/January it would take until after mid-February to go cold again. That said, this is quite the change from what he was saying. He had expected all of February to be a slam dunk cold and snowy pattern, then a big warmup early-mid March. Now he’s saying *possibly* a flip to colder late February and March as the forcing/MJO goes back into the IO @Allsnow Sorry *likely*

The new 12z EPS, GEFS, GEPS look completely unimpressive for 1/28-1/30

I agree. Cold air is going to be a big problem as is a whole plethora of other factors

The other thing that is hostile is how the trough has a strong positive tilt. That alone supports a well out to sea solution. I see no way that the end of the month becomes a major coastal snowstorm despite what some operational runs may show

No need for me to say much my man. It’s dropping fast, yes, but it looks to level off shortly. It’s going to be very close. I still stand by my prediction that it goes down as an official unrounded ERSST/ONI trimonthly super El Nino. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong, so be it. I’ll take the hit if need be lol Anyway, it’s semantics now, there is going to be no difference on the overall synoptic longwave pattern whether this Nino is an official +1.9C trimonthly ONI or a +2.0C or +2.1C trimonthly ONI. We would be talking about a difference of 0.1 or 0.2. But anyway, I’m very curious to see the final result