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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    @bluewave The signal on the ensembles for an extremely warm last few days of February and especially early March is astounding. I haven’t seen a signal this strong since probably March, 2012
  2. snowman19
    I got around 8 inches
  3. snowman19
    Past strong/super El Niños did get less hostile after mid-March. Early-mid March strongly favors a hostile, warmer than normal pattern though, looking back at history. Problem is that post mid-March, minus some very anomalous event, you are really fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day and it gets worse with each passing day at that point. The clock will really be ticking
  4. snowman19
    Hope you enjoyed
  5. snowman19
    The setup next week is God awful
  6. snowman19
    Here comes the last minute north trend. Shocker!! @ag3 There will be WWA’s hoisted later this afternoon, probably all the way up into the NW suburbs. Good God the models have been awful with these last 2 events
  7. snowman19
    The next “threat” to watch become all rain for NYC…..
  8. snowman19
    Good luck
  9. snowman19
    IMO that setup looks absolutely awful for anywhere close to I-95. No cold going into it and no blocking
  10. snowman19
    RGEM and Euro/EPS are 2-3+. WWAs probably go up tonight
  11. snowman19
    Yep. This one is following the strong Nino climo of warmth early-mid March warmup
  12. snowman19
    It most likely will, however there is going to be a limit to how far north it bumps. You want to be south of 287 for this one
  13. snowman19
    Op Euro 10:1 is up to 3” in NYC
  14. snowman19
    Next Fri/Sat looks awful. No cold going into it. No blocking. That has cutter/runner written all over it
  15. snowman19
    I agree. Enjoy whatever we get for Saturday, which my guess is probably a plowable event (maybe something like 3-5 inches?). The final few days of this month and early March looks ugly
  16. snowman19
    If I see an actual good setup, I’ll say it. It’s been years. Best looking setup for an all snow event with high ratios, low level cold and mid/upper dynamics since February, 2021 IMO
  17. snowman19
    I have a feeling Fri night/Sat morning trends north tomorrow, strengthens and drops plowable snow. Finally an event that will actually have high ratios and most likely impressive mid and upper level dynamics and likely an impressive heavy snow band with it. The fact that the RGEM is amped is a red flag it’s dropping over 2 inches at just 10:1 ratios
  18. snowman19
    Support is definitely growing for a warm early March and that would fit strong El Niño climo too…..past events had a warm to very warm early-mid March
  19. snowman19
    Don’t worry. Brooklynwx will be here soon posting 10 different maps showing how an epic, historic, perfect, mind blowing, textbook KU pattern with true arctic cold and massive blocking from the equator to the North Pole is coming for us in March
  20. snowman19
    I got this storm all wrong. Definitely one of the most challenging storms I’ve ever seen since I’ve been a weather hobbyist. Never seen the models this bad, this close in. But I’m more than happy to admit I was wrong. Hope everyone enjoyed the snow. It was impressive and really a big surprise is what has been a complete dud of a winter until today….
  21. snowman19
  22. snowman19
    NYC is very likely fine, north of there? Not so much
  23. snowman19
  24. snowman19
  25. snowman19
    I don’t know what’s going to happen now. I’ll wait to see what 6z and 12z do but I still don’t think 10:1 ratios are going to work regardless. There have obviously been wholesale changes since 12z no denying that
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