snowman19

I don’t see how this becomes anything but an interior, elevated event. I mean if there was arctic air in place and blocking, sure. But as far as some folks on twitter hyping that this is somehow magically going to become an I-95 DC-BAL-PHL-NYC snowstorm? Yea, skeptical hippo here

The only possible way this works out for anyone anywhere near the coast is the total thread-the-needle, perfect scenario I described this morning. This is still an elevated, far interior event IMO. If this was Dec-Jan-Feb…..even the end of November….different story. If we had arctic air in place and high latitude blocking (i.e. March, 2018), totally different story

The good thing is, the stratosphere and troposphere haven’t coupled once since November. We’ve seen how many stratospheric displacements and wave reflections that haven’t coupled now? So why should this one, if it even happens?

And not surprisingly, the EPS snow mean is anemic, even at 10:1 ratios. In order to do what the op EURO showed, for over a week out, since there is no cold, you would need a perfectly placed, bombing low with strong enough UVV’s and very heavy precip rates to dynamically cool the column enough from aloft to get snow. Best of luck with that one

Oh you’re sure huh? Only a troll, like yourself would have said that

This does not look like an I-95 NYC/coastal snowstorm at all, like not even in the ballpark. The antecedent setup looks awful. Teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, +EPO, -PNA, +WPO, no 50/50 low) look awful, and it will be March. This isn’t March, 2018. Also, 850mb temps too warm going into it. This has far interior and elevated written all over it

Not surprisingly, the ensembles are backing way off on the possible snow event for next weekend. None of the teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO, no 50/50 Low) at any level are in favor of a coastal snowstorm….and 850mb temps going into it are going to be way too warm for snow. This is very likely going to be a far interior and elevated snow event. All rain, even for southern New England IMO

Here’s my response to Bluewave’s post about this (SSWE/FW) in the NYC forum: 1 hour ago “You bring up a very good point. Even if this SSWE was to occur, there are zero guarantees that it would even couple. None of the stratospheric displacements and wave reflection events this winter (since November) ever coupled with the troposphere, so why would this one? And even if it did, there is a lag from when this is projected to occur, that would bring us into the final week of March or the start of April before the impacts would be felt. Too little, too late. We will be into astronomical spring at that point and all that would do is piss off 90% of the members here when there’s a coastal storm and it’s in the 40’s and raining”

You bring up a very good point. Even if this SSWE was to occur, there are zero guarantees that it would even couple. None of the stratospheric displacements and wave reflection events this winter (since November) ever coupled with the troposphere, so why would this one? And even if it did, there is a lag from when this is projected to occur, that would bring us into the final week of March or the start of April before the impacts would be felt. Too little, too late. We will be into astronomical spring at that point and all that would do is piss off 90% of the members here when there’s a coastal storm and it’s in the 40’s and raining

The EURO-AI already completely lost it

Always at day 10+ isn’t it?

Did you know? NYC is the new Fort Kent, Maine. Snows till Memorial Day there

I also doubt another Nina, however I can see a cold-neutral/La Nada. As of right now, I don’t think we see a Nino, but it’s extremely early obviously

Yet another post day 10 east coast “snowstorm signal” that’s going to fall apart as we get closer in time? Color me shocked!!

March, 2012 was an off the charts torch a rama. The NYC metro hit 90 degrees a couple of days after St. Patrick’s Day that year

This is the first time since probably early November that the weeklies are warm throughout the entire run

@Allsnow @Bluewave

Yea. I think by the end of the 2nd week of March it’s over. Potential is there for temps to go way above normal by mid-March

The warm signal is actually increasing as we move closer in time. This is a big change from what we’ve seen since the end of November, when the warm signal would fall apart or get weaker as we got closer. By the Ides, we may very well see temps we haven’t experienced since late October

Keep posting digital snow maps and embarrassing yourself

I mean at this point, wouldn’t a SSWE in mid-late March basically just be masquerading as a yearly final warming? Spring solar radiation induced final warmings typically occur between mid-late March or in April, give or take anyway…..

“After next week”. So we’re still chasing day 10+ fantasy snowstorms/digital snow on the models for March after the utter dumpster fire debacle doing that this entire winter….since November to be exact? It’s been an epic bust, a huge failure with these models for months on end….. ‘The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result’

Way drier than normal since December, not a surprise that we’re still in a major drought. If this doesn’t change in a big way in March, make no mistake about it, we’re in big trouble (wildfires, water restrictions) this spring. Met spring starts Saturday and astronomical spring starts on 3/20….

This winter is very reminiscent of 2007-08 for snowfall, not temps of course. Obviously March withstanding, it’s been a much colder version of that winter. The NYC metro area saw a very similar dud of a winter for snowfall through the end of February back then too, very small events from December through the end of February then that was all she wrote. Going to have to see what happens in March, but if there’s a similar March result, I think this has been a very good 07-08 match, for snowfall only, not temps

You misread me. I’m referring to the one that didn’t happen this February. Remember all the hypesters saying it was going to be exactly like 2018?