snowman19

Just to add, the arctic air staying locked in Eurasia ended up being one of the biggest red flags….that has been a staple in some of our worst winters of all time

This winter will be most remembered for long range cold and snow fantasies on the weeklies, on the 11-15 day ensembles and failed SSW attempts. Looking back on it, there were red flags all over the place back in November….the east-leaning super El Niño, the ++IOD, the blazing hot WPAC SSTs, strong -PDO, cold GOA, roaring PAC jet/jet extensions, the MJO wave trains, arctic cold locked on the other side of the globe in Eurasia, the record low snow and ice cover, very high solar activity, *possible* Hunga Tonga volcanic effects on the stratosphere, ++AMO; no semblance of a “tripole” in the Atlantic SSTs, AGW (big factor). The only thing we had going for us was the -QBO, which was not anywhere near enough of a factor to override the other bad stuff. There were also proven studies from Joe D’Aleo that a -QBO/El Nino combo leads to below normal snowfall along the east coast, I-95 corridor

@bluewave So much for that mid-late March “pattern change”. The PAC is not going to change at all, +WPO/+EPO as expected. Another mirage in the never ending series of long range mirages since November…

The PAC ain’t changing…. +WPO/+EPO FTW. So much for that plunge into an arctic tundra with mountains of snow mid-late March some were hyping on twitter….

The PAC pattern stays God awful as far as the eye can see. ++EPO/++WPO and nothing but Pacific maritime air in Canada and the CONUS right through mid-March and beyond. Even if a -NAO/-AO develop, it won’t help, just traps PAC air underneath

Yea because it’s flooded with PAC air and all the arctic is over in Eurasia. The blocks are just going to trap that air because the PAC stays in a garbage pattern. BIG problem. Marginal cold doesn’t cut it come mid-late March anymore. It’s time to declare this one dead. Let it go

I can’t wait for the next can kick….late March and early April for the “cold” and snow. I have no doubt that one is coming…..

Serious question, where is all the arctic cold going to come from since it’s all on the other side of the hemisphere in Eurasia? Marginal cold won’t cut it anymore come mid-late March like it does in Dec-Jan-Feb at our latitude. Once you get to 3/15 and beyond it’s game over south of New England minus some freak/very anomalous event

The 1st 2 weeks of March look very warm and delightful on the ensembles. It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!

Now that we have reached the tail end, last few days of the month, the CFS for March becomes believable and it has continued to trend warmer and warmer with every run right up to today

Should have said on twitter, meant to put that in there. But since you mentioned it, it’s voodoo, how many times this winter will people fall for it? Been failing all winter

The usual suspects *on twitter are still riding the voodoo SSW/weeklies deep winter comes back mid-late March like sea biscuit I see lol

So much for that fantasy GFS anafront. It finally folded to FROPA like the other guidance has had for days

Right, it’s not going to get warm ROTFLMFAOOO. March looks arctic cold and snowy. And the 300+ hour op GFS?! Lol! Let it go. It’s over Johnny. The fat lady has sung, stick a fork in it, say goodnight and goodbye. Done. Bring down the curtain. Adios. A former winter. It’s dead Jim. In the cemetery. RIP Winter 23-24

Op GFS lol It’s over dude. JB just called it quits. It’s warm as far as the eye can see

The ensembles are a full on torch now for March

I’m sure no one is going to believe this, but the new EPS and GEFS folded on the “better” PAC and Atlantic in the long range. The GEPS never really bought into it and the weeklies kicked the can down the road to late March for the fantasy “good” look the other day. The SSW is falling by the way side too. This one is destined to be a ratter right to the bitter end….

For some reason, I don’t think that fantasy GFS anafront is going to verify. Call me crazy…..

The wildlife at least thinks it’s over. The birds are all out singing early in the morning now. Sounded like mid-March here today

Larry Cosgrove has finally given up in his new blog. He was going for a big cold/snowy winter in the east. Said he thinks it’s over https://clearskyweather.com/2024/02/23/the-weather-pattern-is-looking-distinctly-springlike-except-if-you-live-in-the-west-or-in-canada/

The weeklies are wretched. God awful, horrible, worst I’ve ever seen in all my years as a weather hobbyist. This fail/bust was one for the ages. If the weeklies said the sky was blue I wouldn’t believe them

What a moron he is

Guess the early March SSW is going to go down in flames….again. Doesn’t look like it’s going to downwell into the lower stratosphere and couple with the troposphere. Surprise, surprise….another hyped fail incoming. Time to declare this winter dead