snowman19

I don’t think “is there going to be a La Niña” is a question anymore. The question is whether the official ONI (trimonthly) ends up weak or moderate. Moderate is my guess right now. The RONI may hit strong levels

@40/70 Benchmark More from Joe D’Aleo and solar effects during winter: https://www.weatherbell.com/newsletter-10-11-2011-f

Absolutely agree. Other than this one possibly being a moderate event, it’s awful. That one was entirely east-based, the QBO, PDO, solar, AMO etc., etc. are all real bad matches

It’s funny you mentioned that 2017 is not an analog…just saw a tweet saying 2017 is an analog for this winter lol Not really sure what some people actually look at when they make their “analog” lists

Oh yea. There was warming for sure at that point but not at the uber level it’s at now

October, 2017 did have the amplified MJO 4-6. HOWEVER, there were other big red flag clues that it was going to be a decent winter…You had a -QBO, a moderate east-based La Niña, a neutral PDO, a solar minimum, AGW wasn’t out of control at that point, the AMO wasn’t super positive yet, the IOD wasn’t overpowering and you had a non volcanic stratosphere. It all culminated in the record SSWE in mid-February which resulted SPV annihilation and massive AO/NAO blocking in March

This has refreshed my recollection of what HM said about this. Now that you mentioned ozone and ultraviolet I do remember him saying something about that with regard to solar and the tropical season in the Atlantic, although I forget the exact details he mentioned back then

I wish I could remember what HM said years ago about the solar/Atlantic TC correlation. There does seem like there may be a correlation between low solar and high ACE, but like you and @40/70 Benchmark said, it’s not an earth shattering one. Should be interesting to see what this high solar season produces

JB decided back in March that this winter is going to be a full on ice age with 20 feet of snow up and down the east coast. Done deal in his mind and he’s going to keep posting it over and over. And if he’s wrong, he won’t care, no shame, he will act like it never happened and just wash, rinse, repeat next year. He gets all the subscription money, likes, follows and retweets he wants from his clueless east coast weenie base and he knows they will never stop. Laughing all the way to the bank. He’s doing the equivalent of giving a crack addict crack and it works like a charm for him year after year

I know many years ago HM had mentioned something about high and low solar states and their effect on the tropical season. Cannot remember what he said about it TBH. If there’s any truth to that study I posted (high solar=less Atlantic TC’s), we should see some evidence of it this year given the ridiculous ++AMO

This is the first time I’ve seen this study but it shows some research that says high solar states may cut down on the number of TC’s in the Atlantic. Guess we will find out soon….

If anything, for what it’s worth the models are showing straight east-west tracks and not recurves. They have been showing this for a few months now and still are. FL may be screwed

Total collapse of the +IOD. Neutral now. You can also see the very beginnings of a -IOD signature starting to develop. Big fail for the models that were showing a stout +IOD this summer back in March and April. This only lends more support to a healthy La Niña event forming

The 14-15 winter was ++PDO driven. It wasn’t just positive, it was record positive, it fed back and lead to the relentless -EPO/+PNA/-WPO that winter. Totally PAC driven winter

While the strong -PDO and accompanying -PNA cycle is definitely playing a major role, I also think the ridiculously positive AMO is magnifying and feeding back into the SE ridge. The “stuck” MJO 4-7 may also be playing a role too

Agree. I can absolutely see the RONI going strong while the ONI is only moderate with this event

Neutral/La Nada is extremely unlikely this year, besides the point though. That aside, when was the last time, in the last 10 years that DT hasn’t put out a cold and snowy in the East forecast going into the season, only to do a complete 180 and retract it mid-winter, say it was wrong, then go on to attack and lambaste anyone who disagrees with with him, calling them idiots, morons, cursing at them like a sailor, wishing diseases on them and going on profanity filled rants?

That relentless, resilient heat wave in the WPAC around the maritime tells me at this real early stage that we are very likely to see MJO waves favoring phases 4-7 once again this coming winter, especially given the developing Niña. Wash, rinse, repeat

Which is exactly why DT saying that a neutral winter with a -PDO along with the other background factors we have this year would be good for winter is truly perplexing

DT lol The guy who wishes cancer on people and hasn’t gotten a winter forecast right in the last 10 years, then completely jumps ship and bails on his own forecast in the middle of winter and visciously attacks anyone who disagrees with him. He’s a reprehensible person and real lousy at winter forecasts

After this past winter with the epic fail of the models for February, the horrible MJO projections, I take them with a huge grain of salt. Even last year we had models that failed to predict the actual trimonthly strength of the Nino, both too warm and too cold. Looking at real time observations and antecedent conditions, surface and subsurface temps, PDO, PMM, trade winds, IOD, tropical instability waves, past ENSO transitions, RONI, etc., this leads me to still believe we see at least a moderate La Niña event despite what the models may be showing in their month to month runs. I see no reason to change that guess right now

Just law of averages, eventually this rut is going to break, however, if I’m a betting man, this coming winter isn’t going to be the one that’s going to do it

Before my time, but it seems like we are into the throws of a 1979-1993 type of rut with bad winters. Only difference between now and then is that 13+ year period was actually cold, just had way below average snow. This one is an all out torch with way below average snow

As of right now, I see these being the main drivers going into winter: -PDO, La Niña, +AMO, solar, +QBO, AGW, any *possible* volcanic effects on the stratosphere TBD. With the IOD being neutral, I don’t see it being as big of a player as it has been the last few years. That said, if the IOD does go negative this fall (and I think it will), that will only favor the MJO in phases 4-7 even more, as if it needs any help staying in those phases semi permanently anyway. -IOD/Nina favors Maritime Continent and eastern IO forcing