snowman19

That very fast split-flow is going to get stronger….the El Niño is about to peak within the next 2-3 weeks, the SOI has been crashing in the -20’s and -30’s and the WWB is causing regions 3.4 and 3 to warm further, SSTs in those regions have been at “super” (over +2.0C) levels for over a month now @donsutherland1

Yea. The models are probably rushing the RNA, they usually do rush changes, it most likely happens closer to mid-month. There is very good evidence for a mid through late month mild period then possibly a good wintry February. I still think February is good. If you look back at strong/super Ninos, the “good” period for snow/cold doesn’t start until the tail end of January or beginning of February

The very fast split flow aside, we still have the already mentioned source region issues with cold/snow/ice. And the overnight runs of both GEPS and GEFS are developing an RNA pattern by the 8/9th

In other news, the SOI is -36 And CRW, even the CDAS is warming:

Delete your account

Right, “weakening” with a WWB in progress, region 3.4 at over +2.0C and the SOI nose diving to -36 lol https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

When we saw all the arctic air displaced to the other side of the pole in Eurasia, that was a dead giveaway that there were going to be major snow and ice cover issues in our source region. This isn’t just simply low snowcover and ice cover it’s record breaking low. I agree 100%. Without snowcover and ice, the air masses are going to be passing over bare ground and open waters and modifying. Extremely likely that the models are way overdoing the surface/boundary layer cold and will end up correcting warmer as we get closer in time. And the models are definitely going to struggle with the very fast split-flow

It’s the worst since 1980, sea ice is equally as bad. Our source region is going to continue to be a huge problem as is true cold air as @NittanyWx has cautioned over and over

Early January cools down, then we very likely go mild again, RNA, mid-late month given the forcing progression IMO. Do we get “something” early January? Your guess is as good as mine. I still think February probably produces as of right now

The early January cool down is fitting the “script” of past strong/super Nino events to a tee. There is very good evidence (forcing) that come mid-late January we go RNA and it gets mild again. The big question is February. If this one continues as past events have, that will be the wintry month of the winter. Wait and see time now. So far the timeline is fitting perfectly ever since late November. See this:

The SOI nosedived today. -30. Huge drops like this during Ninos typically precede rather dramatic warming spikes @bluewave https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

@GaWx Pointed this out, but ERSST is running warmer than OISST. IMO it is still very likely we get an official (unrounded) trimonthly super event for NDJ. My guess is +2.1C for the trimonthly average. Also, even on the extreme cold outlier CDAS, regions 3.4 and 3 are warming steadily right now. Would not be surprised to see OISST up over +2.1C today

It’s not the “classic” Niña RNA/SE ridge pattern we saw last year, that said, the tropical forcing definitely supports -PNA mid-late month. Also, our source region cold/record low snowcover/sea ice will continue to be an issue, no, not as bad as December due to the longwave change in early January, but still no true arctic cold in Canada. It will take a lot of sustained cross-polar flow and snow buildup to fix that. The models are overdoing the early January “cold” IMO and will get warmer as we get closer. While I think it cools off in early January, it’s a cool off from the very warm departures to near normal not “cold”

The +IOD is falling apart very rapidly now. As you said the waters in the eastern IO and around Indonesia are warming very quickly, which is going to promote more convection (MJO) there….convection always fires over the warmest SSTs

This WWB has trended more impressive….

Do we actually believe we see sustained -EPO though? Given the long range -EPO mirages we have seen time and again with these models….color me very skeptical, just like the PAC jet “weakening” only to get stronger as we get closer in time. A Nino of this strength does not support sustained -EPO and @Stormchaserchuck1 posted some very convincing evidence that a +EPO December in a Nino leads to the EPO also averaging positive for January in almost all of the past cases

The IO MJO forcing is going to be competing with the forcing from the Nino standing wave. Eric uses Paul Roundy’s plots to show the atmospheric response leading to the RNA, as he said, this is not a “classic” La Niña RNA with a monster SE ridge. I also think the PAC jet is being badly undermodeled by the long range models as we have seen time and again, the very strong El Niño is only lending more credibility to this. The lack of snowcover/ice is another huge issue for cold. My guess is that January ends up warmer than normal with below average snow. I know you disagree and we are in 2 different camps here. I’m standing by this and we will see how this all works out in a month. If I’m wrong, so be it

I’m not buying a cold and snowy January, for a few reasons. Top of my list….the ridiculously low (record low actually) snowcover and arctic sea ice on our side of the pole and the fact that all the arctic cold is locked over in Eurasia. I don’t buy the long range models which are already correcting warmer. And lastly, come the 1st week of January, we are going to see competing forcing….a strong MJO wave moving into the IO and the very strong El Niño standing wave….this leads me to believe we very well may see an RNA pattern develop mid-late month, not on the level of last December’s RNA, but -PNA none the less. I also believe the PAC jet will verify stronger than the models are showing. Got to give credit to @bluewave for always pointing out the models underestimating the PAC jet in the long range. February is an entirely different matter and I’m still thinking that month produces, for now….

If you read the new CPC MJO update, they are expecting the MJO forcing to re-emerge in the IO (due to the +IOD weakening) in January. So competing forcing between that and the El Niño standing wave. The MJO remains active, with the enhanced convective phase now over the Pacific, where it is constructively interfering with the El Niño base state. • A strong westerly wind burst event is developing over the equatorial Pacific near the Date Line in response to the MJO-related enhancement. • The atmospheric response to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has strengthened after being disrupted by the MJO in early December. • Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the signal propagating quickly across the Western Hemisphere during Week-1, returning to the Indian Ocean by Week-2. This evolution is on the fast end of the MJO spectrum, and may also reflect a further weakening of the IOD event. • The MJO may contribute to Pacific TC development during Week-1, with Indian Ocean development on both sides of the Equator becoming more favorable during Weeks 2-3. • Pacific MJO events are associated with a pattern change towards increased troughing over the CONUS during the Weeks 2-3 period; however, given the placement of the strong WWB near the Date Line, conditions consistent with the ongoing El Niño response seem to be most likely. Link to disco: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

More evidence that this Nino is about to warm and strengthen further….Per the new CPC MJO update, a strong WWB is developing, MJO constructively interfering with El Niño: • The MJO remains active, with the enhanced convective phase now over the Pacific, where it is constructively interfering with the El Niño base state. • A strong westerly wind burst event is developing over the equatorial Pacific near the Date Line in response to the MJO-related enhancement. • The atmospheric response to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has strengthened after being disrupted by the MJO in early December. • Dynamical model MJO index forecasts show the signal propagating quickly across the Western Hemisphere during Week-1, returning to the Indian Ocean by Week-2. This evolution is on the fast end of the MJO spectrum, and may also reflect a further weakening of the IOD event. • The MJO may contribute to Pacific TC development during Week-1, with Indian Ocean development on both sides of the Equator becoming more favorable during Weeks 2-3. • Pacific MJO events are associated with a pattern change towards increased troughing over the CONUS during the Weeks 2-3 period; however, given the placement of the strong WWB near the Date Line, conditions consistent with the ongoing El Niño response seem to be most likely. @bluewave They expect MJO forcing to go to the IO in January, so competing forcing with the Nino standing wave. Surprise surprise! Link: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

Snowcover on our side of the pole would be bad for late November let alone late December. This is abysmal too:

Still enough warmth in the tank to see a final big spike in temps in regions 3.4 and 3 going into early January with this MJO induced WWB. Still hovering above +2.0C @40/70 Benchmark Try pressing the “translate to English” option, not that you should really need it if you look at the charts he’s showing