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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. None, clueless. You’re really, really bad at this. Stop, just stop. This is going to be an official trimonthly super El Niño. The ONI is for NDJ going to be over +2.0C (super). You lose, game over, give it up. You are making yourself look delusional and even more ridiculous
  2. snowman19
    That map is for 1/18, not one single person on here said the pattern was going to turn mild until after 1/20
  3. snowman19
    IMO the risk next week is suppressed/sheared not cut. But we’ll see, and very good support for a strong MJO wave propagation 4-7. The question then becomes do we see 8-1 come February? I think it gets mild to very mild for the CONUS after 1/20 through 1/31 then the tropical forcing questions begin….
  4. snowman19
    I guess it’s possible we are in a 1979-1993 type of rut. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard. Other than that it was a God awful period for east coast snowstorms
  5. snowman19
    The post 1/20 CONUS thaw is starting to look real. Growing support. If we don’t end up getting anything before that, it may have to wait until February
  6. snowman19
    I’m expecting one on Sat, 3/16….the day of my wedding lol
  7. snowman19
    The one I like is “it’s impossible for that storm to cut because there’s heavy snowpack!” If a shortwave amps in the right place you can have 4 feet of snow and 10 inches of ice in the path it wants to take and it will still cut right over it
  8. snowman19
    You’re not kidding. The other unbelievable anomaly is a very strong MJO wave going 4-5-6 during one of the strongest Nino’s in the last 44 years….
  9. snowman19
    Yes, very good call from months ago! I think the strong -PDO background state is also playing a role as well
  10. snowman19
    Good January call so far. This storm was hilarious, the usual suspects hyped it into a NYC snowstorm for days and days…when I gave my opinion last weekend and during the week that it wasn’t, I got attacked and trolled lol
  11. snowman19
    Storm total just over 4 inches in Sloatsburg. 34 degrees, sun just came out
  12. snowman19
    It’s really hard to believe we are about to see a high amplitude MJO wave go through phases 4-5-6 with a super El Niño in place. But when you look at the SSTs in those regions, which are a total inferno, it makes sense. The atmosphere is always going to fire convection over the warmest SSTs and want to keep it there through positive feedback. I for one did not expect this because of the very strong Nino. At this point I guess no one would be shocked if the wave stalls in phase 7. The WPAC warm pool is like the movie Groundhog Day the last several years….no matter what the ENSO or PDO state
  13. snowman19
    The new 12z RGEM is almost identical to the 6z Euro, midlevel mixing issues south of Orange/Passaic, nothing at all along and south of 287: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024010612&fh=45&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps
  14. snowman19
    Yea. The 6z Euro soundings show midlevel issues until you get into Orange and Passaic counties. Is it correct? Who knows but it’s been consistent in showing this since last night. It basically has nothing at all along and south of 287. It cut back totals even more than 0z in Rockland and Bergen
  15. snowman19
    If the new 6z op Euro is correct that’s what it going to happen, it has warm nose mixing issues all the way up into Rockland/Bergen counties. It cut snow totals even more than 0z
  16. snowman19
    Agree. The favorable period looks to be 1/15-1/21 then hostile forcing takes over and we see another round of unfavorable PAC/PAC jet extension
  17. snowman19
    It looks good now, but let’s see if that actually holds. IMO we are 15 days from put up or shut up time. If we have nothing come 1/20 and an actual sustained (not a one week, transient) change to colder/snowier isn’t actually happening or definitely, 100% imminent, not “Omg! The long range day 15-30 EPS and the weeklies look amazing! Historic! Just wait!” Then it’s time to think about calling this one a ratter
  18. snowman19
    Agreed and been saying that. Those 10:1 maps are severely overdone. Very marginal airmass in the boundary layer, midlevel warm nose issues (globals are even picking up on that and they’re underdoing it as they always do at this range, look to the mesos on Saturday for those details), the almost certain final correction NW tomorrow…southern stream system, inevitable thunderstorm blow ups in the south pumping the SE ridge last minute, cyclone crashing into the west coast, take the under for this one. I see no reason to change my guess from last night….you are going to have to be 40+ miles NW of the city for this one
  19. snowman19
    Becoming more confident that this is going to be an I-84 north event. Expect further corrections NW on tomorrow’s guidance. IMO there will be little if any snow with this until you get 40+ miles northwest of the city. The airmass is marginal as all heck. Also think there is going to be major midlevel warm nose issues in the metro area….watch the mesos in the last 24 hours, some areas may not even see snow and start as sleet. 10:1 snow maps are going to be laughably inaccurate
  20. snowman19
    The pattern out west is not supportive of suppression
  21. snowman19
    IMO this was never going to be a suppressed storm
  22. snowman19
    The Euro has always done way better with southern branch cyclones. The GFS on the other hand is really horrible and is always wayyy too far SE, then it does huge last minute corrections NW. Time after time
  23. snowman19
    How many times have we seen this with southern branch storms over the years? They trend NW in the final 2 days, not SE. It is extremely likely to adjust further NW come the Thursday and Friday….even the Saturday morning runs. Also, what is going to happen to the SE ridge once we see thunderstorm complexes blowing up in the south? (hint, it’s not going to get weaker). Again, I would not at all be surprised to see this become an I-84 north snowstorm by “game time”. You also have to factor in warm noses that are certain to be an issue with the midlevel lows and are not going to be evident right now. We also have a very marginal airmass in the NYC metro area
  24. snowman19
    The people using 10:1 ratio maps in a setup like this and thinking that’s actually going to verify are going to be shocked at the actual result. They are going to be grossly inaccurate. This is why the total positive snowfall maps are night and day different
  25. snowman19
    Still going. Super ONI trimonthly for NDJ a near guarantee
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