snowman19

Here comes the late December MJO constructive interference/WWB we spoke of at the beginning of this month. While not as impressive as the last WWB/DWKW, this would certainly result in more warming and strengthening in the coming weeks given the OHC and the subsurface warmth it still has to work with @bluewave

Besides the record low snowcover on our side of the pole, there is also record low arctic sea ice. Bare ground, open waters….it’s going to be a real challenge to get true arctic air here until this changes in a big way @Bluewave

The current equatorial SOI that @griteater posted the other day, shows that this event is extremely robust and a top tier El Niño, right up there with 72-73, 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16

This isn’t helping either. And make no mistake about it, this Niño is not done strengthening yet. It’s going to warm further. @Bluewave

This is a HUGE problem for cold

The trough is positively tilted as all hell. God speed

If this doesn’t scream “El Nino” then I don’t know what does

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure

That aside, even on the models suddenly showing “something”, look at how positively tilted the trough is on all of them. Good luck with that one

It’s the same pattern #StoplisteningtoJoeBastardi

At this point a -PDO winter is all but guaranteed. A historic first (strong -PDO) for a Nino this strong

Well if that happens then my February idea I discussed with you back in early November in the ENSO thread is dead wrong. As we showed with 97-98 MJO phase 8 even at the end of December and January could make no difference with a very strong El Niño in place ——-raging jet promotion

OISST finally updated on Cyclonicwx last night…stagnated at +2.0C in 3.4 still

I’m seeing Nino standing wave forcing. The thing is, once the MJO propagates east, it’s going to constructively interfere with the El Niño, promote tropical westerlies and strengthening. It may be unintended consequences. We are starting with a stagnated base of +2.0C in 3.4. So it warms how much from there? I do think we see the decaying process start around mid-January and any strengthening before then may cause more jet extension/raging jet into January. As Griteater showed yesterday with the equatorial SOI, this is a very robust event, you don’t want a roided up STJ blasting into the west coast or our good February idea is in trouble. A lot to watch CPC MJO discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

An example of +AAM being too much of a good thing is 97-98 (before I get attacked, no I’m not saying this is like 97-98) but that winter was very strong Nino/+AAM/MJO phase 8. Phase 8 did us no good that winter…..even in January

Yep. Absolutely no cold air anywhere close, all southern stream driven, rain all the way to Montreal

A strong +GLAAM/El Nino would support a very “Nino-like” atmosphere. If the MJO is active, you would have to look up the 500mb pattern composite for the month, the MJO phase, +AAM and +ENSO to see what the typical atmospheric response (500mb) to those variables would be Edit: @40/70 Benchmark This pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994. If this does turn into a PAC firehose jet pattern then my guess that February is a good month for cold and snow goes right into the crapper. Going to have to see what January does but if we get into mid-late January and there’s a raging PAC jet pumping away, then we are in serious trouble and I don’t think a -NAO/-AO would be of much help at that point IF that’s the case IMO

@Gawx Looks like a trimonthly ONI of at least +1.9C is a guarantee at this point. I’d give it till the New Year to see if there’s anymore warming….Probably around mid-January this event starts decaying

The polar jet is finally taking a break after the last 3 years

Yep. It is going to take a sustained, substantial PAC jet retraction, a big improvement in the EPO region and sustained cross-polar flow to seed Canada with arctic cold and snowcover. The process isn’t just going to happen overnight given the already large deficiency we are seeing

As long as there is a massive vortex in the EPO region, Canada and the CONUS are going to get flooded with PAC air, cutting off cross-polar flow, equivalent to a big Chinook across North America. It won’t matter what the AO/NAO do in that case, they will just trap PAC air underneath the high latitude blocking