snowman19

I don’t think anyone is arguing that it’s not going to get cold the 1st 2 weeks of March, I’ve yet to see anyone say it’s not. It’s the period beginning at the end of the 2nd week of next month that looks to really transition us into spring fast as we approach the Ides. Also, as a caveat, I think most on here realize that March “cold” isn’t the same as December, January, February….even late November cold. Normal highs are rising quickly and you have climo, length of day and sun angle all working against winter at that point. In March, we have the equivalent of a September sun overhead

Maybe it’ll actually happen this time unlike the phantom, hyped 2018 major SSW/SPV split for mid-February. Even if one was to happen in mid-March, way too little, too late for winter. With the lag, we will be into astronomical spring by the time any of it has any effect. Besides that, it’s right around the time we normally have a “final warming” from the increased solar radiation as we move into spring. Color me unimpressed. As far as Joe D’Aleo, if it happens, it would seem he was definitely onto something, yes

The extended ensembles ie GEFS-extended

Do you believe the pattern actually goes full on spring (+EPO/+WPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO) by the end of the 2nd week of March or is this another false alarm? It seems to have good multi ensemble support this time…..

Different year, same ending with him. He does this every single March for subscription money, attention, likes, views, follows and retweets. It’s like the movie Groundhog Day. He’s The Boy Who Cried Wolf, zero credibility anymore

From what I’ve read on twitter, he’s supposedly hyping record breaking arctic cold, delayed/“faux” spring and major blizzards/super storms up the east coast in March on the paid Wxbell site. Not surprising at all, he does this every single March

After the utter dumpster fire debacle with the models for yesterday, (and more times than I can count this winter for that matter), why would anyone take what the models are showing at day 9 seriously?

Good point. The northeast coast is still in the midst of a major drought. Nothing has changed since the end of November. It’s scary because we risk water restrictions and wildfires again if this doesn’t change in a really big way come spring

March…let’s discuss….

It was March, 2018 and that was anomalous as hell. A record breaking, historic SSWE mid-February caused a SPV split and resulted in a severely negative NAO/AO that month. The massive blocking lasted into April

Agree. Once you get to 3/15 that’s pretty much all she wrote, even for southern New England, minus some freak, highly anomalous event. At that point you have sun angle, climo and length of day all working very strongly against you

@donsutherland1 Any guess on when Joe Bastardi is going to post his yearly “March Madness is coming, delayed spring” tweets out and say March, 1888, March, 1958, March, 1993 and March, 2018 are the analogs?

I think any 1” or more amounts will be reserved for the eastern end of Long Island. But yea, I guess we get a consolidation prize of a dusting/coating to half an inch tomorrow afternoon/night

I know you didn’t. Wasn’t talking about you

Exactly. The model depicted PAC pattern isn’t changing one iota. It’s the exact same pattern we have had literally all winter long, since the end of November. An exact replica, carbon copy. Good luck with big snow threats in March since nothing is changing. More of the same. Just because it’s a different month, doesn’t mean we get a different result, this PAC pattern has been a complete failure for the last 4 months. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result….

When do you think we will know for sure if there’s going to be a snowstorm or not? Thursday at 6z or 12z?

Wow! The 12K NAM is too amped. Color me shocked! That model is as useful as tits on a bull

Hey Chief, here’s the 3K NAM, even at Kuchera ratios. Nothing, zilch, nada. Something is obviously wrong with what the 12K just showed. ZERO support from ANY other model (even its ensembles/SREFS). But let’s go ahead and ride the 12K NAM. It’s obviously an extreme outlier 3K: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

The 3K high res NAM shows absolutely nothing of the sort. Not even close in fact. Given the 12K NAM’s horrid performance over the last few storms color me very skeptical. 3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=56&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

The only models showing anything more than snow showers with the ULL passage is the 12K NAM and SREFS. The 3K high res NAM isn’t as aggressive as the 12K NAM and the SREFS. The newest SREFS run actually cut back from last night. Other than that, every other model (mesos and globals) is snow showers, well under an inch. To me this is nothing more than that, maybe the eastern end of Long Island (twin forks) sees an inch or two?

Great post about the NBM. NBM has a very bad lag and it’s not done adjusting to the new model consensus we just had, the next update will have even less snow. This one is over IMO. Today at 12z was my benchmark for declaring it dead after all the model runs completed. We are now inside of 3 days and have complete consensus on a total non event. NAM (12K, 3K), RGEM, GFS, ICON, UKMET, CMC, EURO, EURO-AIFS, GFS-GraphCast and the ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) are all in the same agreement

Full on NAM cave job. And the RGEM and ICON follow with zip zero now too. This was an absolutely horrifying bad, bad, bad performance from the NAM, ICON, CMC/GEPS, RGEM, UKMET and the EURO/EPS. The GFS/GEFS, GFS-GraphCast and EURO-AIFS schooled them. Completely embarrassing

Yep. Very good Multi-ensemble agreement with the EPS, GEPS and GEFS for the beginning of March