snowman19

Agreed. This event has obviously NOT peaked and it’s going to strengthen further

The WCS daily update is still +1.8C as 11/13

The new CPC update has it at +1.8C and so does WCS (OISST). Given the ongoing WWB, the trades projected to die off, the DWKW and the SOI at over -30, it’s extremely unlikely this peaked already

Unfortunately, the official reading is +1.8C from the new CPC update less than an hour ago. We go by those numbers. Argue with them if you think it should be lower. :-) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

WCS would absolutely be correct, the other ones are out to lunch. The CPC just updated, Nino 3.4 is +1.8C

It would honestly be unbelievable if we get a high-end strong/super El Niño and don’t see El Nino forcing all winter, I don’t want to say impossible but VERY highly unlikely, very….

IMO January is probably a lot overdone. I don’t think February is though

If it plays out like this, it fits perfectly with the Eric Webb strong El Niño/+IOD composite of a drop the tail end of November/early December. Then it goes way up mid-late December, drop early January, big thaw mid-late January, big drop for February then another big rise to end winter for early-mid March. If this animation doesn’t scream El Niño then I don’t know what does….raging STJ with Nino convection firing on the equator:

If Webb’s progression is accurate, we see a drop at the tail end of this month into the beginning of December, then a big rise mid-late December, a brief drop early January, then a big thaw mid-late January, the bottom falls out for February, then right back up for early-mid March. If we do in fact see a decent 4 weeks in February (i.e.: Feb, 2021), even if it’s only one big storm, I don’t think anyone would be complaining given how bad the last several winters have been….

Pretty good evidence from Eric Webb that February is going to be the real winter month, looks like December is above normal (as expected), drop early January, then according to this mid-late January has a major thaw, then winter drops in come February. March looks like it warms back up above normal if this one follows the past progressions

I have seen several times this event where CRW has been much cooler in region 1+2 than OISST, same story in region 3. That is definitely the correct OISST value on WCS that @Gawx posted. In addition, the SOI is now down into the -20’s

100%. That is not an MJO, there is no coherent MJO activity in fact. The ++IOD and the low frequency forcing from the El Niño standing wave have taken over and are running the show now, proof that the Nino is strengthening further

It’s continuing to warm, would not surprise me if it’s over +1.9C now

Before making definite declarations that there isn’t going to be a major warmup, I’d direct you to Paul’s posts this morning. No, this WWB/DWKW event is not like the previous ones, which he describes in detail. This event is extremely unique has had an evolution we haven’t seen in a very, very long time. Also, look at what’s going on with the sea level anomalies, the subsurface and the warm water volume right now. I’d be very careful saying this thing is not going to strengthen anymore. IMO this event is going to burn a bunch of people really bad trying to use recent climo to diagnose this Nino. It has not peaked IMO

Like you said, if this actually is Hunga Tonga induced, good luck proving that right now, that will take months of strat experts looking at before any such conclusion would be made. I guess maybe the high solar flux/solar max could somehow be playing a role? Is there a +IOD connection? Could the unusual evolution of this El Niño (see Paul Roundy’s detailed twitter post from this morning) be playing a role? Has it altered atmospheric circulations enough to cause it? Lots of questions that won’t be answered probably until this winter is all said and done

Besides Hunga Tonga, I wonder if the ++IOD is also playing a role (i.e. 2019)

Big question….Is this the work of the stratospheric volcanic water vapor saturation from Hunga Tonga doing its dirty work now that we have gone into the cold months??

This is a really good thread with detailed explanations, take the time to read:

IMO 3.4 going super is inevitable at this point. Big subsurface push. The sea level anomaly and warm water volume are rising very fast and expanding now with the DWKW/WWBs and they have been ever since 10/30. We are on the verge of substantial strengthening/warming at the surface. This one is coming

No doubt in my mind that this warming event is going to be major or that Nino 3.4 will eclipse +2.0C this month, I also think there’s a good chance Nino 3 gets into the high +2C’s

You are going to get your push. Our ideas really aren’t that different, I’m just slightly higher with my trimonthly peak ONI estimate at +2.1C - +2.3C. Despite some incredibly bad info on twitter, this Nino event HAS NOT peaked nor is it going to rapidly fall apart. This DWKW and WWB mean business

A very well coupled +IOD/El Nino system in place. With continued Nino strengthening, they are only going to continue constructively interfering with each other

Two points, #1 Expanding upon what @jbenedet just posted, you don’t see a raging STJ in Nina’s or uncoupled Nino events: #2 This WWB is getting stronger: