snowman19

If that’s the case that we can’t get cold water anymore, then how did we just have a 3 year solid La Niña, -PDO with cold water in the GOA and off the west coast and a very strong -PMM with cold waters off of Baja??

Nino 3.4 about to eclipse +1.8C on OISST with more warming to come: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/sst_graph_nino34.png

To me, that looks nothing like a classic tripole. For reference…. Tripole: https://www.ilsnow.com/videoblog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/tripole.png

Nino 1+2 has stagnated above +2C for months now. It’s very likely to continue for another few months, the models have it remaining stagnated, holding above +2C right through February. While it definitely has peaked and is not going to +3C again, it’s unlikely to drop below +2C for any length of time into February. In fact, it’s going through some warming again right now https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

Didn’t you hate the CFS because it was showing a torch winter with no blocking?

Zero chance of this Nino ever becoming a Modoki. Another wishcast fantasy fail from JB. Bust-a-Rama:

Nino 3.4 is at the warmest daily reading on OISST since this event started back in March (+1.74C) https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png

Here’s some good +IOD/El Nino info going back over 50+ years:

I know there’s different opinions on it but the Hunga Tonga water vapor in the stratosphere…..I honestly cannot imagine it having no effects at all this winter. No one can say for sure what they will be, but I find it extremely hard to believe that a record volcanic water vapor saturated stratosphere will have zero impact on the SPV and the state of the NAM

The +AMO aside, what do you make of the total lack of a tripole signature? We have had +AMO with a tripole signature in the past, however, this fall, it’s been totally non existent. The research has shown a strong correlation with the New Foundland cold pool/tripole and subsequent -NAO. We have had a strong New Foundland to Europe warm pool thus far

Once the DWKW has time to do its dirty work, it’s going to rise further

That one is different from the SAI obviously, which Judah has been pessimistic about

Nino 3.4 at the highest of the event (OISST) at +1.73C, CRW at over +1.8C, also the highest of the event on that https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

I don’t know how the NAM/AO is going to play out. IMO, all the record volcanic water vapor from Hunga Tonga that has infiltrated the stratosphere is going to play some role. I can’t imagine it not. The question is what?? If you follow Judah’s SAI Siberian snowcover buildup (I know you don’t) and I’m totally indifferent, but that looks like it’s not going to be optimistic at all for -AO. Larry Cosgrove follows arctic sea ice and that also looks well below normal too. I think the high solar flux/solar max is definitely going to play a role, as is the -QBO too, so some conflicting signals. Wait and see now I guess

IMO, the Atlantic SSTs/++AMO don’t support -NAO at all. At no point this fall and even late summer has there been any semblance of a “Tripole” in the SSTs, the New Foundland cold pool (staple of a Tripole) is and has been completely non-existent. This is almost certainly related to the ++AMO, which is record breaking right now. Here is what a tripole looks like: https://www.ilsnow.com/videoblog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/tripole.png Here is what we have and have had, nothing even close to a tripole look: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_natl.png Just from an Atlantic SST perspective, this is not supportive of negative NAO this winter whatsoever IMO

The Euro and a couple of others actually did a decent job showing the region 1+2 peak, cooling and leveling off into the +2’s. They have it leveled off in the +2’s through February. It’s hovering right around +2.5C now on OISST https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

@Terpeast Here is some discussion on the possible effects from the ++AMO this winter:

After the temporary Rossby wave flux from TC Tej, the +IOD is poised to strengthen again with the easterly trades/upwelling picking back up around Indonesia and the downwelling resuming further west off Africa

Put the SOI aside. Did you read the rest of my post? Can you address my other points? And the length of this negative SOI run has certainly been very impressive, @GaWx did a write up on it several days ago

@CoastalWx IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now, Average SOI for last 90 days -10.61 we have this… No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing. 2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies 3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 4. WWBs