snowman19

The subsurface is rewarming from the DWKW in progress. It’s going to warm even more and people are going to be eating crow when this one goes super. Per my last post: “New downwelling Kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency Nino forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. Convection is dead over the IO and Maritime Continent from Nino/++IOD forced subsidence 2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies 3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño 4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru 5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation All of these are consistent with El Niño and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….”

God speed. IMO it is

I would not be for several reasons: New downwelling Kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency Nino forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening. 1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. Convection is dead over the IO and Maritime Continent from Nino/++IOD forced subsidence 2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies 3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño 4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru 5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation All of these are consistent with El Niño and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

Must be those ever elusive, fake WWBs and +AAM spikes again. We’re just dreaming it, it’s not really happening, figments of our imaginations….. @brooklynwx99 100%. The composite you posted fits El Niño (+ENSO), November, with +AAM and MJO Phase 8 perfectly. Sorry, folks, that’s not a La Niña like response at all

Doesn’t match up at all with this. Not one value above +0 right through March on any model on that chart. Also, region 1+2 is warming again, up to +2.6C. Regardless of what happens in 3.4 this one is not becoming a Modoki https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

Lmfaooo he’s not even a meteorologist. Just a weather hobbyist. I’ll take the actual experts word for it

Lol the WWB just got going. Its not going to have a snap your fingers instant effect

This is a very strong ongoing WWB; spawning TC’s. Almost certain to form a substantial DWKW and result in very impressive ENSO warming in November. The -20’s SOI run continues….

Besides the -QBO, PDO and the fact that there was an El Nino, I never saw ‘09 as a match. This El Nino is not only stronger, it developed as a pure east-based/EP event. ‘09 was a classic, textbook Modoki, start to finish. It was also -IOD, which affects MJO progression, don’t remember what the solar was but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t a solar max year. The AMO wasn’t anywhere near as positive, you had an Atlantic tripole, you didn’t have record amounts of volcanic water vapor in the stratosphere either, AGW wasn’t anywhere near as pronounced as it is now, the STJ is already very strong now, the STJ response is different when there’s a Modoki, you had well above normal Siberian snowcover buildup in October, arctic sea ice was higher, (not that those matter to me, but still)…..

I really don’t think the -PDO is forcing the pattern even though it’s strongly negative. Maybe when it was record strong positive like back during the 14-15 winter, there was some feedback with those insanely warm ++ GOA and west coast SSTs, but other than that, no. Studies have shown that ENSO forces the PDO, not the other way around. The 2 main drivers I see this winter will be the El Niño and ++IOD. I think the MJO will largely be a non factor which is typical with strong ENSO events. When there is activity I expect it to be weak and fast moving and not in “La Niña” phases 3-6, so I guess that’s really a plus. The other secondary factors I see are the Hunga Tonga water vapor…what effects does that ultimately have on the stratosphere?, -QBO, solar (very high solar activity and geomag, approaching a solar max), ++AMO; right now there is no semblance of a “tripole”/New Foundland cold pool in the Atlantic, raging strong STJ, AGW must be factored in too. I can care less what arctic sea ice and Judah’s SAI does as both have proven to be a debacle over the last 15 years, that said, Siberian snowcover development to this point in time has been really horrible, lowest of the last 9 years on his index chart and sea ice is very low, below average…..the people who still follow it, take that for what you will

Massive WWB ongoing, going to trigger another DWKW. The SOI is down to -23

A powerful STJ is definitely not a La Niña hallmark:

I agree. The MJO is and has been dead in phases 3-6 (IO/Maritime Continent), thanks to the subsidence from the strong El Niño standing wave and the ++IOD. The SOI is also -22. You also have a massive WWB ongoing and ENSO warming. I don’t see where there’s La Niña forcing @roardog Look at this…..Where is the “La Niña forcing”???:

SOI down to -22 https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Now it definitely will be. You are the kiss of death

Our lines in the sand are drawn then. I think we go trimonthly super ONI and you think it stays strong. The time for speculation is almost over and we will soon see where it goes without guessing anymore. One of us will be right…

Have you seen an OISST update for Nino 3.4 anywhere? It’s stuck on 10/17 on cyclonicwx. Just read a tweet saying it’s up over +1.83C on OISST but I can’t confirm that. It did jump well over +1.7C on CRW

Like you said, you can find studies that will say that the earth is flat, up is down and down is up, black is white and white is black. All the studies I’ve seen suggest that arctic/polar stratospheric water vapor (Hunga Tonga) results in a cold stratosphere and a strong SPV, I’m sure you can find studies that will completely contradict that and say it causes the weakest SPV in history and an inferno stratosphere See here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103855

We are going into a very solid period of Nino strengthening….

The +IOD continues to strengthen. I’m confident it beats the ‘19 peak come November. The models don’t return it to completely neutral until February

The Nino is not going to +3.0C lol but +2.1C - +2.3C for a NDJ trimonthly average? I can absolutely see that. I think this one peaks in December, although some models are showing a January peak. Regardless, they all have a slow demise into February and March. None of them show it rapidly falling apart

@GaWx ENSO/IOD/MJO forcing this winter: