snowman19

Very rapid cooling of the SSTs north of Australia right now. The +IOD should peak come the beginning of November but it is not projected to go completely back to neutral until February

Here comes the coupling:

Your recent posts discussing Nino development this month

Paul Roundy: “As is often the case in El Niño events during Northern Fall, a subseasonal westerly event transitions the east Pacific from easterly anomalies to westerly anomalies. This signal will strengthen the east Pacific nature of this event.” @so_whats_happening

It definitely got weaker with the arctic/polar (AO/NAO) blocking like ORH_wxman mentioned already. I agree that the threat with a strong/super Nino is an east-displaced Aleutian Low (+EPO, +WPO) and there is also the threat of the -QBO, El Niño inducing -PNA as per D’Aleo’s research that I mentioned earlier

CDAS lol. Modoki index: -0.24. Nothing even remotely close to a Modoki. Total wishcast. And the Euro got stronger with the peak since last run. Showing a super El Niño: https://www.twitter.com/atmospheric_g2/status/1709923014744101071?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This also fits with the Joe D’Aleo studies and research showing -QBO/El Nino (“Nino-East he called it) resulting in -PNA winters

Very high solar flux right now, way exceeding previous expectations. This may play a role in the state of stratosphere as well… https://www.twitter.com/rynelancer/status/1709642809492316649?s=20

The IOD is all the way up to +2.1 on the new update. Also, a very clear MJO phase 8/1 signal still showing up on VP and OLR, projecting weak on the chart due to IO and MC suppression from the Nino and IOD. This is probably the initiating event that gets this Nino really taking off. EPAC tropical activity starting to really pick up too…another sign of deeper coupling

He’s also using 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 and 14-15 as his “analogs”. That’s called “let me find the coldest and snowiest El Niño/borderline El Niño winters for the east coast in the last 70 years and say they are all great “analogs” for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from east coast weenies who don’t know my little yearly games any better”. “Migrating Modoki!!”. Its the same concept of saying 95-96 and 10-11 are great “analogs” every time there’s a La Niña. Different night, same ending for him…..

Given how insanely negative the PDO is right now, it may take until March or April before it goes completely positive but it should be on the rise during the winter with the El Niño forcing on the mid latitudes

I read a study years ago that showed the exact opposite…..ENSO forces the PDO not the other way around. If that’s correct, the PDO should go up very dramatically by spring

From World Climate Service: September ENSO/IOD index update (ERSSTv5): • Niño3.4 +1.6 (4th highest) • Niño1+2 +2.5 (second only to 1997) • Niño4 +1.1 (record highest) • Modoki Index -0.24 (*not at all Modoki-like yet*) • ENSO Longitude Index: now 5th highest since 1950 • IOD +2.1 (4th highest) And a couple more September SST indices AMO +0.9 (highest on record by far) PDO -1.7 (3rd most negative since 1950 - astonishing to see during El Niño) My add: Nino region 3 was the warmest on record in September Links: https://www.twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1709286540432621601?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://www.twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1709291978796552683?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November back in 2015….that’s not happening. I do still think this one gets over +2C but definitely not that warm

Yes I do. We aren’t going to see a 12/15 style torch a rama. I do however think this winter overall will average warmer than normal

I think it depends in large part on what the stratosphere does (Hunga Tonga being a wild card). I too see a heightened chance of a KU event with a roaring STJ. We will obviously need to time the polar blocking and cold over the top. As far as overall temps, I think it matches 72-73, 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16….although I very seriously doubt a 15 style December torch because I don’t think we see Niña like forcing this time around. I don’t like guesstimating snowfall because as you know, one storm could make an entire season and it’s way too fickle. I do think the forcing moves east come December, the question is how far east?

@brooklynwx99 @GaWx @griteater @40/70 Benchmark The El Niño juiced STJ is already showing up. No need to worry about a SE ridge/WAR and Niña like pattern this time around. This one is coming, it’s going to strongly couple and it’s going to behave like a canonical El Niño. I’m more confident than ever. The Nino and +IOD are going to work in tandem to suppress the IO/Maritime Continent convection and the MJO ph 3-6 nonsense this time around. We are already seeing the signs “this is definitely an El-Niño-cool-season pattern showing up in about a week: strong subtropical jet, low heights along the Gulf Coast, etc.” https://www.twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1708971583035916532?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This isn’t 12-13 and it’s coming right back. I don’t think you’ll have any doubt come the end of this month

A sign of Nino coupling taking place

Major suppression and subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent (courtesy of strong El Niño/+IOD). We will have weak, fast moving Pacific MJO waves, 8-1 constructively interfering with El Niño

Region 3.4 climbing on OISST

That had zero to do with Paul Roundy, zippo. In fact, the research on the QBO/El Nino I mentioned was done by Joe D’Aleo, one of the biggest cold/snow misers there is

I haven’t made a final decision on anything, those are just my preliminary thoughts. I’m waiting until the end of November to see where we are at. Too many things can change. If we are going to see big high latitude -AO/-NAO blocking, we should start seeing signs of that in the arctic stratosphere this month and next month. Back in 2010, the signs really started to show themselves in October and especially November. HM sounded the alarms in November that year, that the stratosphere and troposphere were “talking” and major polar blocking was coming. I honestly don’t care how this winter ends up working out as long as it doesn’t snow on Saturday, March 16th because I’m getting married that day lol

This El Niño developed, configured and evolved in a completely different manner than 2009, it’s also stronger, but let’s put that aside. I see *possible* issues with going cold and snowy this year and I will save my judgement until late November. 1) East-based El Niño, has been, still is and the models continue to show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than 3.4 and 4 at least through January. I see little to no chance whatsoever of this becoming a Modoki 2) IMO this event goes trimonthly super in the ONI sense, my guess stands at +2.1C - +2.3C. I believe it couples in a very big way this month. The SOI is very clearly deep in El Niño mode and has been. 3) Record +IOD event (most likely surpassing 94, 97, 19). 4) Historic amounts of water vapor in the NH arctic stratosphere from Hunga Tonga, unknown effects on stratospheric temps and the SPV, NAM/AO, we have to watch this month and next month very closely to see if it gets ice cold 5) Severely -PDO, may favor +EPO (as does strong/super El Niño with an east displaced Aleutian Low) and may favor -PNA 6) ++AMO has lead to an overall winter +NAO in recent years 7) Very high solar activity/flux; can go either way, don’t really see it as a big plus TBH 8) AGW increasing 9) An almost guaranteed raging STJ on roids blasting across the CONUS 10) Research and studies by Joe D’Aleo showing that -QBO/El Nino leads to both -PNA/RNA and lower than average snowfall winters from DC to Boston…See here: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf I can give a hoot less what Siberian snowcover buildup does this month and what Judah’s “SAI” shows, that has proven to be a debacle over the last 15+ years. I can also care less about arctic sea ice…another debacle

The only one who thinks 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 and 14-15 are actually analogs is Joe Bastardi. It’s called let’s find the all time coldest and snowiest El Niño winters/borderline El Niño winter (14-15) in history for the east coast and say they are all “analogs” just like he always does. Pathetic. Those years are so far from analogs right now it’s not even funny. Like not even in the ballpark of being analogs and it’s laughable to suggest they are