snowman19

We are in agreement on pretty much everything. Let’s see what happens over the next 5 months, but as it all stands right now, it looks very ugly for winter. Unless there are some major, large scale synoptic changes all around (from PAC to ATL to tropics to arctic to stratosphere to solar) between now and November, I think we may be in real big trouble. That said, seasonal snowfall is always the biggest wildcard, cliche, but it only takes one big luck storm to skew the entire season…..

Lol I mean the PAC is almost always the main driver with everything moving west-east unless you have a winter of anomalous, predominate strong NAO/AO blocking

@Gawx These heatdomes just serving to further increase the already boiling SSTs in the western Atlantic (+AMO), feeding back into the seemingly never ending cycle of amplifying the SE ridge/WAR during winter

It’s clear at this point, the Euro is a warm outlier

@so_whats_happening Any MEI updates? I imagine unlike last year, this La Niña should actually get a normal MEI response with the PDO/PMM both being negative

I agree. I think moderate on the ONI is a very good bet, possibly strong on the RONI

Obviously way early and many months away from seeing if this actually has an effect on the Atlantic tropical season, but could this “Atlantic Niña” and the high solar cycle be flies in the ointment for a hyperactive season?

Getting back to this, twitter is pure comedy sometimes, the land of make believe. The amount of tweets claiming that this Niña is developing just like 2010, 1995, 2017, 2013 is laughable. Besides 2013 not even being an official Niña (cold-neutral), the others were east-based events that either stayed east-based or migrated west later in winter (2011). Literally no model is showing this event as east-based, nor did they ever, at any point in time since the spring. It’s called “let me find the coldest and snowiest Nina’s for the east coast and say that this one is developing just like those did”. So much bad info, wishcasting and delusion on social media. It does meteorology a huge disservice and honestly makes a mockery of it. Same cast of characters, different year….

It’s probably going to be closer to basin wide if anything, but definitely not east-based, as no models are showing or have shown such a scenario in their previous runs

It did, however, we were not going into a La Niña back then

From back in 2021….but this -PDO/-PMM correlation for the summer pattern still applies now, especially with the -ENSO developing:

The fact that the -IOD developed much sooner than I had expected just adds to my confidence that we see at least a moderate La Niña event (going to constructively interfere). Negative IOD/Nina supports Maritime Continent and eastern IO forcing (MJO 4-6)

Agree with this. Really the entire 15 year period from 2000-2015 featured above normal snow all averaged out, also several cold winters. People can’t possibly have expected it to continue indefinitely, it was bound to end at some point….

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL104000

@40/70 Benchmark @bluewave Besides the obvious -PDO, look how strongly negative the PMM has become….if this continues, it would support a very weak/basically non existent STJ this winter…..

The 95-96 and 93-94 winters made that decade. If it wasn’t for those 2 winters, the 90’s would have been just as horrid as the 80’s, which only had the Megalopolis blizzard in ‘83

I don’t think “is there going to be a La Niña” is a question anymore. The question is whether the official ONI (trimonthly) ends up weak or moderate. Moderate is my guess right now. The RONI may hit strong levels

@40/70 Benchmark More from Joe D’Aleo and solar effects during winter: https://www.weatherbell.com/newsletter-10-11-2011-f

Absolutely agree. Other than this one possibly being a moderate event, it’s awful. That one was entirely east-based, the QBO, PDO, solar, AMO etc., etc. are all real bad matches

It’s funny you mentioned that 2017 is not an analog…just saw a tweet saying 2017 is an analog for this winter lol Not really sure what some people actually look at when they make their “analog” lists

Oh yea. There was warming for sure at that point but not at the uber level it’s at now

October, 2017 did have the amplified MJO 4-6. HOWEVER, there were other big red flag clues that it was going to be a decent winter…You had a -QBO, a moderate east-based La Niña, a neutral PDO, a solar minimum, AGW wasn’t out of control at that point, the AMO wasn’t super positive yet, the IOD wasn’t overpowering and you had a non volcanic stratosphere. It all culminated in the record SSWE in mid-February which resulted SPV annihilation and massive AO/NAO blocking in March

This has refreshed my recollection of what HM said about this. Now that you mentioned ozone and ultraviolet I do remember him saying something about that with regard to solar and the tropical season in the Atlantic, although I forget the exact details he mentioned back then

I wish I could remember what HM said years ago about the solar/Atlantic TC correlation. There does seem like there may be a correlation between low solar and high ACE, but like you and @40/70 Benchmark said, it’s not an earth shattering one. Should be interesting to see what this high solar season produces