snowman19

I don’t follow his logic, if it caused the stratosphere to cool during winter in the Southern Hemisphere, why would it cause the stratosphere in the northern hemisphere to warm? The stratosphere is the stratosphere and water vapor in the stratosphere has been scientifically proven to cool it, doesn’t matter if it’s south of north of the equator. Water vapor from the eruption has already infiltrated the northern hemisphere. He’s also talking about SSWEs, I was honestly confused by that article. Is the author a meteorologist?

The little respect I still had left for JB was lost back in the fall of 2015 when he was trying to hype the super El Niño into a “west-based” super El Niño and was still arguing that it was going to be a cold and snowy winter for the east coast. He had 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs”. He made himself into a total damned fool and so did Judah Cohen who was calling for a very cold/snowy winter because of Siberian snowcover (SAI) that October despite Nino region 3.4 hitting an all time record of +3.1C at the end of November

@40/70 Benchmarkand anyone else interested, here is research regarding +QBO/Niña years: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022JD036691

The high solar flux continues:

Thank you. I’m actually surprised this event is so robust….normally the 3rd Niña in a “triple dip” event is the weakest….that is not the case this year, the MEI is also indicating a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) Niña :

How many low Atlantic ACE/La Niña/volcanic years did you find? Also, what was the QBO, IOD, solar and PDO doing in those years? Thank you

According to this link HM shared, the record amount of water vapor ejected into the stratosphere should cool it and warm the troposphere below: Link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381?campaign=woletoc

I doubt a strong ONI peak too but I think a high-end moderate/borderline strong peak is absolutely possible over the next 4 months given the current trends

No semblance of a tripole nor has there been

Even if you remove the Niña, the other factors are still no good. We have to see where we are at come November. I’d be interested to see what Isotherm says

Still waiting for the super extreme hyper Atlantic hurricane season that JB has been hyping and wishcasting since April…..and still is. Good lord how does anyone still take that guy seriously. He is the worst of the worst

It could very well be AGW related. So far, everything (solar/geomag, Atlantic SSTs, QBO progression, Nina structure) is pointing to another +NAO winter. Maybe we see some sort of flip next winter? Overall, 1979-1993 had an amazingly persistent +NAO

More and more evidence is mounting for a very positive AO winter. This eruption/historic ejection of water vapor is just going to serve to significantly cool all levels of the stratosphere and in turn strengthen the SPV

@40/70 BenchmarkI’m guessing you think +PNA/-WPO driven December? I’m leaning towards that too the more I think about it. I’m not too optimistic for a big -EPO but we’ll see. I can tell you one thing, the 2010-2011 analog some on twitter are throwing out/wishcasting looks real, real bad right now. I honestly would not be surprised to see an overall ++AO/++NAO winter (Dec-Mar). This is just bad:

I have a feeling any good periods are going to have to come from the PAC. What is going on right now with the sun is reminiscent of the late summer/fall high solar flux of 2001. Solar activity has been way overperforming since February and it continues unabated:

Well yes but at least a -WPO would help keep Canada seeded with arctic air so when the EPO dips negative and the PNA goes positive it can bring the arctic down

IMO hope for a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO). I honestly don’t think you are going to sustain +PNA/-EPO with the -PDO and Niña but I could be wrong. Guess we’ll see

I think there is still a weak Niña in March. Once we get into April I think it’s completely over and we’re ENSO neutral and warming. I would expect that we go weak Nino come summer

IMO the reason why this Niña is continuing to strengthen is constructive interference with the -IOD. If we had a +IOD right now, I believe it would be destructively interfering with the Niña and it would be nowhere near as strong as it is now. Back in 2016, had it not been for the -IOD event constructively interfering with the developing Niña, I don’t believe we would have ever seen an official Niña that winter

Agree for the most part and not just here, further north as well. Back in 13-14 and 14-15 we had a garbage Atlantic and arctic but the PAC made up for it with a record ++PDO and strong +PNA/-EPO/-WPO. This year, I think we are going to need the AO/NAO for anything sustained. I doubt we will be able to really sustain a good PAC for long because of the Niña Modoki/-PDO/-IOD background states

@40/70 BenchmarkYour initial thoughts seem to be pretty good so far, this winter may have to come down to a favorable PAC at times to get anything. Evidence is mounting (high solar flux/high geomag/solar flares, Atlantic SSTs, Modoki Niña, Volcanic effects, +QBO) that the AO/NAO are possibly going to be downright hostile. From HM, re. Volcano’s effects on the stratosphere:

@40/70 Benchmark

Here you go…..this would seemingly support your initial thoughts that December is cold then Jan and Feb get torchy. Also has the fall pattern in there….

Yes. I should have specified in the MEI sense