snowman19

If you look further, the high ACE years were not only low sunspots but also majority low geomag

This (solar cycle) is exactly what happened back in 01-02. The incoming UV from the high solar flux warms the low and mid latitude’s upper troposphere’s @donsutherland1

I also wonder how much of a factor the warm tropical tropopause in the Atlantic (AGW related) is playing in this…

Now that we are into September, the following look like very good bets going into November, baring some dramatic, unexpected change over the next 2 months: strong -PDO, -PMM, weak -IOD, -ENSO (central based), +QBO (possibly strong?), +AMO/New Foundland warm pool, MJO favoring phases 4-6, high solar flux/high geomag, low arctic sea ice, any minor, unkown impacts on the stratosphere from the Ruang volcanic eruptions back in April @Gawx

All the new model runs look terrible for Atlantic TC development now. We are starting to run out of time for a hyperactive season with very high ACE and a big number of named storms

Just saw the new Nov-Mar 500mb maps and it looks unimpressive, completely void of high latitude NAO/AO blocking and it goes canonical Niña torch Feb/Mar. Aleutian ridge city, negative PNAish and it pumps the SE ridge starting in Jan

No one cares what you think. You contribute nothing. Useless member. Disappear

There’s musings on twitter about the Atlantic tropical season possibly being shunted by the solar max and possible effects from the low latitude/tropical volcanic eruptions back in April. Also some chatter about the AMO/Atlantic “Niña” possibly being a culprit as well

If the QBO becomes strongly positive the PAC jet is going to roar. DT was absolutely right about that correlation. Strong +QBO strengthens and adds westerly momentum in the upper atmosphere to the jet and causes it to rage. 16-17 was a real good recent example. And for once JB might be right about the MJO, assuming he sticks to it and that’s a big assumption but, there is good evidence to suspect a continuation of MJO 4-6. Warmest SSTs still in those phases and cold-ENSO/-IOD. Let’s see if he actually sticks to it, he tends to be stubborn, i.e. insisting that arctic sea ice is going to increase for the last like 5 years @GaWx Looks like the final average sunspot number for August is going to be solidly over 200. Geomag activity/solar flux also averaged well above normal for the month

The more I look at it the more I’m thinking we see a rather strong +NAO/+AO winter. Also, it looks like we are going to see a substantial strengthening of the already very strong -PDO, along with a PMM drop. We have big cooling going on in the Bering Sea. This is a normal precursor to downstream cooling in the GOA/GOA cold pool and subsequent “cold horseshoe” from there, down the west coast of North America to Baja and into the tropics. Given the developing cold ENSO, that will only serve to strengthen this system and drop the PDO and PMM further. Classic look PDO phase maps: https://prfrainfall.com/pacific-decadal-oscillation-

I saw a rumor that he’s going warmer than average with below normal snow on Twitter Wednesday night. Guess it was true. Let’s see if he actually sticks to it come November or reverses and goes cold and snowy. My guess is that he’s cold and snowy by Thanksgiving….

Right. Assuming that’s really what is happening, it would have an effect on next winter. It’s still strongly positive at the moment and I don’t see it having any effect at all on this winter, it’s starting to happen way too late for that and it’s going to be a slow process, again, assuming this is the case

I think we may be in the very early stages of the Atlantic starting to flip to a -AMO. *Maybe*. If that’s indeed what’s happening, it’s going to be a slow evolution over many months. We won’t know for sure until next summer

If we do actually end up seeing an official trimonthly La Niña (I’m not sure we do anymore) there’s no models showing it being east-based. I think we can take an east-based event off the table

Completely different for you guys. You actually want a +NAO so the SE ridge flexes and sends the storms into the lakes

Agree for the most part but I’m not sure we see strong NAO/AO blocking like we did in December ‘22. The more I look at it, the more hostile I think the NAO/NAM are going to be. As far as the other “analogs” going around twitter (i.e. ‘17-‘18 ‘95-‘96 ‘83-‘84 ‘10-‘11 ‘13-‘14 ‘20-‘21) completely asinine and nothing more than wishcasting

That would be them. Just saw the bogus ice age wxbell run for DJFM get posted about an hour ago

Correct. And not everyone thinks this winter is going to suck. The weenie twitter clowns are posting the CFS and saying the “analogs” are 83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 and 20-21. Normal yearly routine for them….

I realize and he’s doing the same thing JB does IMO

That’s fine. Learn from it. Then admit defeat and say “my forecast failed because of XYZ” instead of saying my forecast was right and I had the right idea but….JB loves doing that when when he busts

It’s him finding a way out of his forecast. Just an excuse. He’s been hyping a huge Atlantic hurricane season since the spring. You see this tactic with winter forecasts, they will find anything to say “my forecast would have been right if it wasn’t for the completely unexpected, unseen X that happened, no one could have possibly seen this coming!” @bluewave has shown how strong the large scale Niña like forcing has been for months now. It will not be 100% of the time and that applies to any type of forcing, there will be small scale temporary/transient anomalies and deviations from time to time

Completely agree. Everything I’m seeing globally supports a warmer and drier than normal fall (SON)

Solar and geomag don’t even remotely resemble 10-11, like not even close. Solar/geomag do not match 20-21 either. No models are or have been showing an east-based Niña, so no go on 17-18 and now there is a big question in my mind as to whether we even see an official La Niña

Those analogs are way better than some of the ones getting hyped on Twitter right now (83-84, 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 17-18 and 20-21). All one has to do is check the ENSO state and you know the exact analogs certain people are going to pick before it even happens. Just like when there’s an El Niño, you know 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 and 14-15 are coming. Literally every time without fail….

The ridiculous New Foundland warm pool is definitely a match for 07-08