snowman19

We have seen non stop La Niña like tropical convective forcing from the MJO since 15-16 with very few breaks. This year should be no different. I’m pretty confident we see MJO phases 4-6 (Maritime Continent/eastern IO) highly favored this coming winter given the Niña, -PDO and neutral to negative IOD

We have basically been in a background Niña state for years now. The added effects of AGW just exaggerates everything

Think at least moderate is a good bet. Talked about this with @GaWx the other day, but this may be a case where the RONI is strong but the ONI is only indicating high end moderate. The RONI is way ahead of the ONI right now

We are in agreement on pretty much everything so far. I also really doubt the AO/NAO cooperation for the following reasons: solar, ++AMO, volcanic stratosphere?, +QBO, moderate-strong Niña (possibly quickly transitioning to a Modoki), especially if the IOD goes negative come fall, I think the event goes strong. Unlike last year where the PDO and PMM did not synch with the Nino, this one will have no issue “coupling” (MEI/RONI)

There were multiple reasons why 95-96 happened, high Atlantic ACE aside, it was before AGW really kicked in, it was -QBO, it was +PDO, it was solar minimum/low geomag/low sunspots, the AMO wasn’t severely positive and it was a weak La Niña with a synoptic pattern that was atypical for a Niña, which was due to the PDO IMO

Does the Niña configuration make more of a difference in the WPO response than strength of the event? I.E. East-based vs Modoki?

I’m starting to think you’re right, this may be a case where the RONI shows a solid strong Niña event and the ONI is only like -1.4C or -1.5C trimonthly. One thing I can say with certainly is that there won’t be the MEI disconnect this time around

This +AMO cycle continues to amaze….

Yea, assuming we don’t get NAO/AO help, which seems like a real good bet, I guess pray for a poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO), given the Niña, -PDO/-PMM and an MJO probably favoring Maritime Continent and eastern IO phases 4-6, especially if the IOD goes negative, I doubt we see a favorable PNA or EPO for any extended periods

I know you weren’t. Right now, 95-96 is an absolutely horrific analog and should not even be a thought. It only exists as an analog in JB’s weenie world of make believe. In any given year something unexpected can happen, i.e. 19-20 when pretty much everyone was expecting a cold and snowy winter, then the ++IOD came along and ruined the party

Now that’s interesting. Despite the hype, high Atlantic ACE doesn’t automatically = blocking

The only issues (2) that I have synoptically with 10-11 is the current solar state and the *possible* upcoming Modoki configuration of this La Niña….

Right. The “cold” in that region of the IO he’s showing corresponds to -IOD, which is actually very likely and will only serve to strengthen the Niña along with the -PDO and -PMM. I guess he doesn’t care that it also shows the -PDO and a central based/Modoki Niña, which contradicts a big part of his analogs but that won’t stop him from using them anyway because they fit his cold and snowy east coast winter agenda, which is why he’s wishcasting high Atlantic ACE as a fallback in case that happens

@Gawx Oh the irony. Now he’s posting the CFS showing a strong Modoki La Niña come November AND a -PDO

Very nice. I remember HM’s write up at the end of the 10-11 winter….he said the high latitude AO/NAO blocking was due to the solar cycle. Even though solar activity was rising that winter, it was coming off a solar minimum and had low sunspots and low geomag, which HM said caused the extreme blocking early-mid winter. It was also a very east-based Niña until late January, which I believe also played a big role

Yep. -QBO was a big part of the reason 95-96 played out like it did besides being during a solar minimum, +PDO, weak Niña and well before AGW started to have a huge impact on our climate

Agree with you on the peak. Also agree with you that it likely becomes a Modoki event rather quickly

Atmospherically and oceanically, (-PDO, -PMM, neutral IOD, most likely turning negative), it’s all systems go for this La Niña. It will have no problem coupling. Would not be surprised at all if we see a strong event

Strongly agree. And the earlier “This Niña isn’t going to couple well and strengthen because of the +IOD” argument by some on twitter is very rapidly falling apart like the IOD is

95-96 was a very weak Niña, +PDO and -QBO. 13-14 was cold-neutral/La Nada, 14-15 was ++PDO and a Modoki Niño which lead to extreme +PNA and -EPO blocking. 10-11 was a solar minimum with low geomag and a low number of sunspots, it was also an extremely east-based La Niña until late January when it migrated west and became a Modoki event, then all the high latitude blocking completely disappeared in February and never came back again….not a coincidence. The only reason JB is using them as “analogs” is because they were cold and snowy winters for the east coast

If you can, years that went into a La Niña, solar max, volcanic, +QBO and -PDO. The AMO is so anomalously positive right now, there are no analogs for that

@40/70 Benchmark The +IOD made no sense anyway…

95-96 was not only weak, it was a very atypical Niña because it had a +PDO. That is why Joe Bastardi is wishcasting a +PDO so hard right now….he is dying for any excuse to say it’s an “analog” so he can add it to his already predetermined list of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 for this winter. It’s also the reason why he’s hyping a super high ACE Atlantic tropical season with recurves. Anything to predict another very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast

I agree. I think there is definitely an above normal chance of a strong La Niña. That said, do I think it gets to the levels of 73-74 or 88-89? Probably not, since those 2 are the strongest Nina’s on record