snowman19

Yea and I wonder if this throws a monkey wrench into the rest of this season:

The issue with using 1983-84 is that was a volcanic winter, very volcanic stratosphere. That said and this has been discussed here, does the cumulative VEI 5 Ruang eruptions we had back in April have any effects on the stratosphere? Those were traditional sulfate aerosol eruptions and they reached the stratosphere. Obviously they weren’t a Pinatubo or a 1983. My guess is that they have “some” effect and magnify the La Niña/+QBO/high solar effects on the stratosphere this winter Edit: 83-84 was also a +PDO winter. IMO should not be used as an analog

That’s a very strong signal and it goes right into March too. Also, no semblance at all of “east-based” Niña forcing, not that this event was ever projected to be one anyway

+PDO, -QBO too. Everything about that winter was perfect

Correct and Bluewave mentioned how it was also the very 1st year of the start of the +AMO cycle

Agree and another issue with 95-96 was the IOD. That was an extremely unusual +IOD/Nina. It altered the normal Nina MJO progression and lead to it going phases 8-1-2 largely avoiding 4-6

I know you don’t think it is, but I think solar and geomag alone completely eliminate 10-11 as an analog. And as far as the usual clowns on twitter trying to say 95-96 is an analog, that’s even more laughable, solar, QBO, PDO, PMM, AGW, etc, etc., and on and on, don’t match at all but let’s wishcast it as an analog anyway

I think given the updated MEI, the twitter crowd can stop denying that the atmosphere is solidly into a La Niña state, there’s more to it than SSTs

Pray the Aleutian ridge does something favorable because the more I look at it, the more I’m convinced this is going to be a strong +AO/+NAO winter. IMO if there’s any help that’s where it comes from and right now, I think poleward spikes are going to be transient and not dominant

The MEI is going to couple this year. We’ve been in a Niña background for months

The very strong -PDO and -PMM are definitely playing a role in this Niña. None of the models are showing an east-based event, nor were they ever. If you look at where this trade wind burst is projected to take place, a central-based La Niña definitely has support

The background states contributed to 01-02 yes. But I think there is more than enough evidence to blame high solar flux as the main contributor for that winter. It’s no coincidence that blocky winters are low solar/low sunspots. Also, high geomag is known big factor in +NAO development

Got ya. I’m fairly confident in a warmer than normal fall (SON) and possibly dry. The EURO-UK is showing a rather zonal, dry fall. If I had to guess right now, all 3 months are above average with November the most mild/dry

Take it with a grain of salt obviously, but the new EURO-UKMET super blend seasonal run is suggesting a very flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to a poleward one. Is it right? Flip a coin. And to your point on the high solar flux possibly affecting the NAO, I’d have to agree. Sunspots and geomag are off the charts right now

Good link. The new runs of the NMME and EURO-UK are showing a region 3.4 centered event, so “central-based”? I guess we can call it. This is pretty crazy, despite La Niña, -PDO, IOD changes (models now going for a -IOD this fall), global temps/AGW refuse to drop

We’ll see, I think SON all average above normal, however, I see November as the most above average month and most likely the driest. I think that 3 month period as a whole averages drier than normal with the caveat being any tropical systems in Sept and Oct

@40/70 Benchmark What are your thoughts for the fall? Just musing but based on everything right now synopitcally, I’m thinking warmer than normal for SON with November being the warmest and driest out of the 3 months and possibly drier than normal minus any tropical events of course in Sept and Oct. Not going into any winter thoughts until November….

The waters off Japan are anomalously warm as heck. If that model run is correct, the PDO will be severely negative in November

@Bluewave Besides the central-based La Niña and continuation of the strong +AMO it’s showing come November, look at how severely negative the PDO gets, the WPAC warm pool is crazy on this new run. Also, has the -PMM continuing and the new climate model runs are getting stronger with the -IOD come October

Finally a major (positive) SOI response consistent with a developing -ENSO. Here is the EURO-UKMET super blend SST map for November. As you can see, the event is concentrated in region 3.4:

Just to add, if the models are correct about where the EWB is going to be taking place, it would lend some credibility to the NMME idea of this La Niña being region 3.4 centered