snowman19

Yes. I agree with you, I think the WWB ends up stronger than modeled and it warms 3.4 substantially by the end of December, but in the grand scheme of things, if I turn out to be right or Ray @40/70 Benchmark turns out to be right, it won’t make a damn bit of difference….a +1.9C trimonthly or a +2.1C/+2.2C trimonthly isn’t going to change the atmospheric response, it’s still going to be the exact same. We are talking about a difference of 0.3. Like @Bluewave said, Mother Nature isn’t going to say “let me respond completely differently to a +1.9C and a +2.2C”

Red flags all over the place for late month. If anyone believes that we are going into an arctic cold pattern by then with a look like that they are going to be in for a real huge surprise

Here comes the next period of WWBs and El Nino strengthening/warming:

It’s generally not a good sign for a cold pattern when all of the arctic air is on the other side of the pole in Eurasia, arctic sea ice is low and snowcover on our side of the hemisphere looks like this:

I didn’t doubt it. However, if the MJO behaves as expected this cooling will be short lived

Given the subsurface (from the recent major WWB/DWKW), surface, upcoming constructive interference from the MJO and what looks to be another very substantial WWB coming up, I really don’t think it’s that far fetched at all

@so_whats_happening @bluewaveHere’s the new Euro run, shows a super El Niño. VERY strong signal!

Looks like a very strong WWB coming up, this event has most definitely not peaked yet. Here is an interesting perspective @bluewave might find this interesting too:

IMO the MJO wave is going to slow down dramatically, maybe stall once it interacts/constructively interferes with the El Niño standing wave

@bluewave Are you also expecting the MJO wave to slow down dramatically, maybe stall when it interacts/constructively interferes with the El Nino standing wave?

If the Pacific jet doesn’t slow down big time nothing is going to change. An extended Pacific firehose aimed at western North America definitely doesn't = cold and and snow in the east. I’m also not understanding some of the hype on twitter right now calling for an arctic cold late December. That’s going to be a really good trick considering all of the arctic air is locked on the other side of the pole in Eurasia

This Nino is a top 4 warmest event in region 3.4 since 1950. It’s neck and neck with 82-83 right now with only 97-98 and 15-16 being stronger: More warming to come mid-late December as the MJO moves strongly in phase 7, triggering a very impressive WWB and +AAM spike:

New CPC ENSO weekly update: 1+2: +2.0C 3: +2.0C 3.4: +2.0C 4: +1.7C https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

You are one of the people on the MJO 7, 8, 1, 2 train. If that actually happens then it has to warm more and trigger a WWB. It’s not going through those phases and cooling. You can’t have it both ways

Yep. That STJ signal is only going to get stronger over the next 4 weeks with the MJO wave coupling, big WWB, +AAM flip and strong Nino convection really starting to fire. The OHC is up to +1.65 and the subsurface warming from the DWKW has been extremely impressive. Think we are about to see an imminent major uptick in region 3.4 temps

Still trying to figure out where a certain someone thinks all this frigid arctic cold is going to come from being that it’s all on the complete opposite side of the pole….

Looks like a really strong MJO wave push into phase 7 right around mid-month. That’s when it constructively interferes and the typical El Niño convection should start firing on the equator along and east of the dateline in a big way. The models are showing a beast of a WWB (which should trigger another DWKW) developing around the same time, this almost certainly results in a substantial warming of region 3.4. We go strongly +AAM as well. Good point about the jet…it’s screaming already. The STJ may prove to be a problem this winter, that’s the key element to watch…if we have a raging, firehose STJ blasting into the west coast, it’s going to flood PAC air into the CONUS and Canada and no amount of -AO/-NAO will help that. The arctic/Atlantic blocking would just trap maritime PAC air underneath. It would also prove problematic for +PNA….it would just crash right into the +PNA ridge pops, deamplify them and knock them right back down. Bottom line, if you want a cold pattern, pray that the STJ isn’t raging. Also, looks like all the arctic air is going to be on the other side of the pole in Eurasia going into late month

Proof that we can be mild with PAC air despite -AO/-NAO

Agreed. And if there’s a firehose, roaring STJ blasting into the west coast -AO/-NAO isn’t going to help, they would just trap PAC air underneath the blocks