snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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If I had to guess right now, I’d say a general 1-2 inches total for the area Tues-Wed
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@so_whats_happening Looks like we are seeing the final warming of this event….it probably starts decaying in about a week or so from now
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The Euro is still the best model we have, especially given that it excels during southern branch dominated Ninos. I think that solution is absolutely believable given how fast the southern branch shortwave is moving and the incoming trough acts as a kicker making everything progressive. Everything gets pushed OTS. On the bright side for those who have been wanting cold, it does finally get truly arctic cold on 1/20 after a strong clipper FROPA, which has some snow with it. The Euro brings a piece of the TPV over us. IMO ride the Euro like sea biscuit….
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Typically, the Euro shines during El Niños (southern stream) and the GFS sucks, it does much better in northern branch dominated/Nina winters
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A 1006mb low well off shore doesn’t scream big snowstorm to me especially given where we were yesterday at 12z
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You bring up a real good point, is the “normal” displaced east big GOA vortex just delayed? Hard to believe we have an El Nino this strong and just simply never see a typical strong/super response. Everything about this event has been delayed. (NDJ peak). An event of this strength dramatically alters the global heat budget and is eventually going to feedback. The laws of physics have to kick in at some point I would think, especially given the huge, unprecedented rise in the MEI over the last month, there has to be an atmospheric response in kind
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Barely, nothing at all like yesterday. I thought this was the risk, suppression, OTS, not hug or inland run/cut. Same risk for 1/20 IMO
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I think the -PDO is playing more of a role here than a lot of folks thought initially, as is the WPAC warm pool with MJO waves propagating in the IO and Maritime Continent, which is definitely not the norm for tropical convective forcing with a super El Niño in place
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The GFS loves doing this and the new upgrade did nothing to help the issue. I forget which storm it was (few years ago) but that was the only time I can ever remember the GFS being on its own and scoring a win against the EURO/CMC/UKMET/ICON with showing a possible east coast storm being a miss OTS while the others kept showing hits
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What is your point? Those are snapshots in time. That same blocking pattern and arctic cold happened in January, 2016….remember the historic blizzard? It also went below zero in NYC during that Nino….remember early February, 2016? That same blocking pattern and arctic cold also happened in February, 1983….remember the Megalopolis blizzard? No, it didn’t happen in ‘98 or ‘73 but again, what is the point you are trying to make??
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The EPS and GEPS get very ugly after 1/21. I agree with you that something needs to happen by 1/20. If it doesn’t, to expect some miracle, storybook finish in February would be an extremely tall order. Again, assuming next week’s setup is correct, to get nothing out of that would be quite a shock but I guess stranger things have happened
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Probably haven’t seen a pattern like this since March, 2018. If we don’t get anything from 16/17 or 19/20 it would be shocking, assuming that depicted setup is correct. IMO we do need to get something by 1/21 though, because I do think the pattern gets hostile after that given the MJO wave progression
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I’m not sure what happens in February yet. Going to depend on whether the MJO can propogate in 8-1-2
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Thinking we may see another jet extension late month….El Nino is still at super levels and the models are showing a big ++AAM spike going into late month and early February. The PAC jet may be raging again for awhile. Your thoughts?
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Once again, you have no idea what you’re talking about. This is still going to be an official super El Niño. You lost, admit it. You’re embarrassing yourself right now.
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You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. None, clueless. You’re really, really bad at this. Stop, just stop. This is going to be an official trimonthly super El Niño. The ONI is for NDJ going to be over +2.0C (super). You lose, game over, give it up. You are making yourself look delusional and even more ridiculous
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That map is for 1/18, not one single person on here said the pattern was going to turn mild until after 1/20
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IMO the risk next week is suppressed/sheared not cut. But we’ll see, and very good support for a strong MJO wave propagation 4-7. The question then becomes do we see 8-1 come February? I think it gets mild to very mild for the CONUS after 1/20 through 1/31 then the tropical forcing questions begin….
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I guess it’s possible we are in a 1979-1993 type of rut. The biggest storm of that entire 14 year period was the February, 1983 Megalopolis blizzard. Other than that it was a God awful period for east coast snowstorms
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The post 1/20 CONUS thaw is starting to look real. Growing support. If we don’t end up getting anything before that, it may have to wait until February
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I’m expecting one on Sat, 3/16….the day of my wedding lol
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The one I like is “it’s impossible for that storm to cut because there’s heavy snowpack!” If a shortwave amps in the right place you can have 4 feet of snow and 10 inches of ice in the path it wants to take and it will still cut right over it
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You’re not kidding. The other unbelievable anomaly is a very strong MJO wave going 4-5-6 during one of the strongest Nino’s in the last 44 years….
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Yes, very good call from months ago! I think the strong -PDO background state is also playing a role as well
