snowman19

Just wanted to add that the -PMM supports a weak/muted STJ. This gives your drier winter idea some validity

In a real big turnaround from the +IOD forecasts they had in the spring, the majority of models are now predicting a neutral to slightly negative IOD by October. It’s currently neutral at -0.19. Not unexpected, as +IOD La Niñas are extremely rare. It looks very unlikely that the IOD will play a big role in this upcoming winter @bluewave @40/70 Benchmark @GaWx Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

The last true dry/drought winter we had on the east coast was 01-02. I hate to use the “we are due” argument, but after over 22 years since the last time, one is inevitable sooner or later……

After all the non-stop hype since March from some on twitter, if this Atlantic tropical season ends without a super high ACE, it will be one of the most epic busts in recent memory

New research (November, 2023) on the QBO and ENSO, both Niñas and Niños. It confirms the older research and shows a strong connection between an easterly (or -QBO)/La Niña and a weak stratospheric polar vortex/-AO and a westerly (or +QBO)/La Niña and a strong SPV/+AO. @Stormchaserchuck1 Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-023-07040-x

Given what is going on right now, that assessment would obviously be wrong. Sunspots don’t continue to increase after a peak

The solar experts have estimated that the peak should occur at the tail end of this year/early next year. We won’t know for sure that the peak occurred until after it has already happened

Very impressive subsurface cold (approaching -6C) now in region 3.4. Courtesy of an upwelling Kelvin wave. Extremely likely some of this makes it to the surface with the enhanced easterly trades. Also, very pronounced tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts in the ENSO regions….an indication of rather healthy La Niña development

Absolutely no sign of this solar max cycle peaking yet. We are most likely several months away from the actual peak….solar activity/sunspots/flares/geomag are still increasing and extremely impressive. @GaWx Sunspots look to go over 200:

He stopped talking about it on X about a month ago because he knows he’s going to get ripped apart. He’s been hyping on the paid site to get subscription money from the weenies

No, JB has been incessantly hyping and wishcasting that the PDO is somehow magically going to turn raging positive. That’s why he’s using the asinine analog of 14-15

Anomalous high pressure over the North Pacific = continued record strong -PDO

The expected July strengthening period looks like a go: CPC:

I believe Chuck @Stormchaserchuck1 said the warm pool in that region is an even stronger signal for +NAO

WAR/SE ridge city

Holy hell at that New Foundland warm pool

Yes, from the little I do remember, they were tying recurving hurricanes and tropical storms into -NAO development during the winter. It was all NAO related discussion. Here’s my question…..does high ACE from low latitude East-West tracking tropical systems have the same effect as recurves that gain latitude poleward into the far North Atlantic? I would think that recurves do a way better job of transporting latent and sensible tropical heat energy and momentum into the tropopause of the North Atlantic and subsequently pumping ridges than do low latitude East-West tracking tropical systems @40/70 Benchmark @GaWx @raindancewx @bluewave Thoughts?

That’s what I meant to ask Ray before but it slipped my mind. I vaguely remember the correlation being high ACE with recurves releasing latent and sensible heat energy into the tropopause of the North Atlantic. Not sure if it applied to East-West tracking tropical systems too, I honestly didn’t read into the research I had seen on it years ago, but I do remember that recurves were mentioned

Just using 95-96 as an example, yes, it had the record high Atlantic ACE, but did that directly lead to the massive -NAO/-AO blocking that winter or was it the low solar/geo mag, -QBO, +PDO, weak east-based Niña that would have lead to it regardless, even if it wasn’t high ACE?

Pretty much agree. Pray that high ACE forecast works out, because if that’s a fail, I don’t know we avoid an all out disaster outside of interior northern New England

The CSU high ACE forecast is pretty much the only thing that looks good right now, unless there are very drastic changes in the next 4 months

It’s scary to think how warm the upcoming winter for the CONUS and even parts of Canada would be with a well poleward displaced jet (in combination with AGW) like the Euro is suggesting

If we assume it’s not deep enough with the RNA/-PNA again (possible given the strong -PDO), it doesn’t get much uglier than that…..flat Aleutian ridge, ++AO/++NAO, SE ridge/WAR on steroids

Verbatim, that’s a warmer version of the 88-89 La Niña disaster