snowman19

It will take quite the historic Sept-Nov to live up there some of the 230+ ACE forecasts that were put out back in the spring and early summer (i.e. JB)

It’s nowhere near becoming -AMO right now, not even close. We won’t know if the AMO is truly flipping until next summer

If it was only the solar max/geomag and the *potential* cold-neutral Niña fail ENSO, I’d agree, however, the other major factors all match….strong -PDO, -PMM, -IOD, strong atmospheric Niña background state, MJO 4-6, +QBO, +AMO (but was not nearly as strong back then), non volcanic (although we had the major eruptions back in April, not enough to create a classic volcanic stratosphere but may possibly still augment some of the other stratosphere factors this year?). The differences; AGW wasn’t anywhere near what it is now, arctic sea ice wasn’t record low and the marine heatwaves in the PAC and the Atlantic weren’t there. I see more similarities than differences

Yea, we’ll see, but I think a weaker cold-neutral Walker cell will allow solar to have even more of an influence (01-02). Just posted about it, but there’s a decent chance that this solar max may end up even stronger than that one was

@GaWx It’s starting to look like a good chance that this solar cycle ends up stronger than the 01-02 solar max of Cycle 23….

I noticed that this morning too. The upwelling has not been as impressive as I thought it would given the tropical instability waves we were seeing. Once we get into next week, it’s really “put up or shut up” time for this Niña. I’m starting to think this ends up either as a central-based cold-neutral or a borderline very weak Niña (barely). Either way, a cold-neutral winter is a certainty, but I’m starting to doubt a trimonthly weak Niña event. That said, the strong atmospheric Niña background state/MJO/-PDO isn’t going anywhere and the -IOD is only going to enhance that

“The driving force behind these severe weather outbreak is the enhanced or stronger than normal Pacific jet stream. THAT feature is being enhanced by the record setting extremely positive QBO. As a result the jet stream velocities especially the mid and upper levels are enhanced. As the Pacific jet drives these significant powerful weather systems into the West Coast... They will move across the Plains the Midwest and towards the East Coast over the next two weeks” It’s looking likely that we see a strong +QBO this winter…

@GaWx The strength of the +QBO is important too. DT has always argued that if a QBO gets strongly positive it directly strengthens and adds velocity to the PAC jet. We saw a few examples of this, most recently in the 16-17 winter when the PAC jet was roaring. DT warned that it was going to happen and he ended up being spot on DT: https://www.facebook.com/share/m9tFjr63aZJ2aebL/?mibextid=WC7FNe

The source is Joe D’Aleo/Weatherbell. I have never heard this theory before. All the research I’ve ever seen points to La Niña/high solar/+QBO being hostile

“Extremely” positive maybe not, but right now, I see no reason not to expect a solidly positive NAO winter (DJFM)

Simple, the 1980’s were during the -AMO cycle. 1995 was the first year of the +AMO cycle

If you compare 1995 (classic tripole/New Foundland cold pool, warm SSTs north of there from Greenland and just south of Iceland to Northern Europe) to now, it’s night and day. We now have the New Foundland marine heatwave with the cold SSTs north of there, extending from Greenland and Iceland to Europe. That’s a very strong +NAO signature and supports a roided up Atlantic zonal jet running right along that cold/warm SST temperature differential

Here is a post I found, (16-17 winter) he attributed the roaring PAC jet directly to the strong +QBO: https://www.facebook.com/share/m9tFjr63aZJ2aebL/?mibextid=WC7FNe

I remember distinctly that he said strong positive QBO leads to a raging PAC jet. I’m looking for it now. He had a specific range on numbers

Besides the La Niña, solar/geomag, MJO and -PDO, I think another important factor to watch is the QBO. I remember years ago, DT found good evidence that strong positive QBO’s lead to a raging PAC jet. I forget what his actual ranges were for that though….

Which ones of the high ACE Nina’s were also high solar and geomag, +QBO, -PDO?

This may be the very beginning stages of an eventual flip to a negative AMO. We won’t know for sure until next summer. The transition stage normally starts in the tropical Atlantic first, then moves north, throughout the rest of the Atlantic over time. As of now, the AMO remains strongly positive

One of my analogs, 01-02, had 17 tropical depressions, 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, ACE of 110

2014 was obvious once the PDO went ++. You knew the +PNA/-EPO/-WPO was coming. 13-14, though technically -PDO, the configuration resembled +PDO and it was as textbook a +TNH pattern as you will ever see

IMO the forecasts for 25-30 named storms are probably in peril

IMO 17-18 was another easy one. It already tipped its hand by this point in time and very little changed that fall. The overall synoptic picture never stopped being a very favorable one from August on….

Definitely interesting. My guess is that 10-11 would have been way different had there been high solar flux/high geomag, in fact I feel very confident in that. That article is still informative though, thank you again, good read. Also wonder if the weaker +AMO and lack of a New Foundland warm pool played a role? These are the main factors I’m looking at going into this winter that IMO will be the main drivers and need to be monitored going into November: 1) High Solar/geomag 2) Weak La Niña (looking more likely to be central based), also will be very well coupled as evidenced by the MEI/strong Niña background state 3) -PDO 4) -PMM 5) +QBO (possibly a strong event) 6) ++AMO/New Foundland warm pool 7) -IOD 8) MJO, very likely to see phases 4-6 being dominant again given the SSTs, -IOD/Nina combo 9) Very low arctic sea ice; I believe it’s contributing to the predominant +NAO/+AO we’ve had in recent years 10) Any possible stratospheric effects from the April Ruang eruptions, although likely to be weak effects given they were only a cumulative VEI 5, 11) AGW

Thanks. Never seen that article before

Honestly, I think this winter is going to be a relatively easy one to predict, in fact, I think this is going to be one of the few easy ones, (i.e. 02-03) we’ve seen, without many question marks. The people on twitter who are saying that it’s “going to be a very hard one to predict” are the same people who look for excuses to predict a very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast every year. I’m reserving my final judgment for November because things can change of course and it’s foolish to make a winter forecast right now IMO. That said, I don’t expect very much at all in terms of the main global ‘players’ to change between now and November. I think this winter is already showing its hand pretty clearly