Still very early but there are some signs that the AO/NAO may not cooperate. Again very early but 1) the Atlantic SSTA profile is not suggestive of -NAO, no semblance of a “tripole”, nor has there been this year, 2) possible low ACE Atlantic hurricane season? 3) high solar 4) Modoki Nina/+QBO, when accompanied by high solar you rarely see SSWs and it generally favors a colder stratosphere 5) volcanic stratospheric effects, unknown what effects the record amount of water vapor spewed into the stratosphere will have but we had a major tropical volcanic eruption this year (January) that reached the stratosphere none the less and the first year after an eruption normally results in +AO. This all is definitely not screaming arctic and Atlantic high latitude blocking to me but we’ll see….