snowman19

Op Euro 10:1 is up to 3” in NYC

Next Fri/Sat looks awful. No cold going into it. No blocking. That has cutter/runner written all over it

I agree. Enjoy whatever we get for Saturday, which my guess is probably a plowable event (maybe something like 3-5 inches?). The final few days of this month and early March looks ugly

If I see an actual good setup, I’ll say it. It’s been years. Best looking setup for an all snow event with high ratios, low level cold and mid/upper dynamics since February, 2021 IMO

I have a feeling Fri night/Sat morning trends north tomorrow, strengthens and drops plowable snow. Finally an event that will actually have high ratios and most likely impressive mid and upper level dynamics and likely an impressive heavy snow band with it. The fact that the RGEM is amped is a red flag it’s dropping over 2 inches at just 10:1 ratios

Support is definitely growing for a warm early March and that would fit strong El Niño climo too…..past events had a warm to very warm early-mid March

Don’t worry. Brooklynwx will be here soon posting 10 different maps showing how an epic, historic, perfect, mind blowing, textbook KU pattern with true arctic cold and massive blocking from the equator to the North Pole is coming for us in March

I got this storm all wrong. Definitely one of the most challenging storms I’ve ever seen since I’ve been a weather hobbyist. Never seen the models this bad, this close in. But I’m more than happy to admit I was wrong. Hope everyone enjoyed the snow. It was impressive and really a big surprise is what has been a complete dud of a winter until today….

NYC is very likely fine, north of there? Not so much

I don’t know what’s going to happen now. I’ll wait to see what 6z and 12z do but I still don’t think 10:1 ratios are going to work regardless. There have obviously been wholesale changes since 12z no denying that

After how bad the NAM was with the last storm (way too cold) why are people taking it seriously? The HRRR and GFS were equally as bad, they had areas that got all rain getting snow even as the event started. They even had my area getting a few of inches of snow and I didn’t see so much as a dusting. This is a classic SWFE, they almost always move north in the last 12 hours, not south and models almost always underestimate the mid-level warming in these. Rain to snow events as a general rule tend to underperform, especially with upper 40’s the day before going into it. Surface temps are going to be above freezing and ratios are going to be less than 10:1. I would wait until the 0z runs tonight and the 6z runs tomorrow morning before I spike the football

This thread describes this winter and where we are heading from now into March to a tee. Good read:

It has just begun its coming adjustments north from the ridiculous suppressed solution it had along with the NAM and CMC at 12z. The UKMET was way too suppressed as well

It was way closer to reality than what a lot of the models were showing closer to the city and the city itself

I don’t think it ever becomes a warning south of Orange, Sussex and Putnam counties

When I gave my opinion on this storm, I was accused of trolling, which I wasn’t. This setup has sucked for a week and it still does and I absolutely believe it’s going to trend north even further between now and Monday morning. IMO this is not going to be a major snowstorm south of I-84. Here’s what Earthlight has to say:

11/1-2/9: 2.3 inches of snow, total

That’s not a troll

It will probably be rain up to I84 by 0z Saturday night

Those snow maps are pure satire. NWS Upton is not biting and for good reason: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper levels signal a strong jet tapping into multiple sources of moisture from the Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic Monday into Monday night. Vertical lift apparent from a coupled jet structure depicted with local area close to right rear quad of jet streak to the NE of the area plus left front quad of an approaching jet streak to the SW going into early Tuesday. Mid levels convey a strong shortwave moving across the local region early Tuesday. ECMWF strongest and deepest compared to GFS and Canadian models. Shortwave moves well east of the region Tuesday night. Less amplified mid level shortwaves move across Wednesday and Thursday. Without much in the way of phasing of northern and southern branches of the upper jet with the southerly branch being the more dominant one, there is a limit to how amplified the wave gets. There is not much tilt vertically. This favors a relatively faster and more progressive solution. Also evident, is a lack of a strong high pressure area to lock in colder air. It will difficult to sustain any prolonged snowfall especially if more of the precipitation falls during the day. At the surface, low pressure develops off the mid-Atlantic Monday night and then deepens as it tracks southeast of Long Island. ECMWF much deeper and slower compared to other models. The current forecast takes this low southeast of Long Island going into Monday night with an increase of precipitation. Similar to previous forecast, inland zones have relatively more snow in the forecast compared to the coast. Coastal areas contain mostly rain. Lesser chances of rain and snow accompany the smaller shortwaves Wednesday and Thursday with otherwise mainly dry conditions Tuesday night onward through rest of long term. Daytime temperatures will be higher than normal, well into the 40s on Monday but will decline closer to normal values for the rest of the work week. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off @MJO812 How’s the 12z ICON in Kuchera ratios looking?