snowman19

I would not discount the +IOD either. It’s a huge elephant in the room. It isn’t just very strong, it’s record strong and that is going to dramatically alter the forcing and the global heat budget as we go into winter

I am not concerned at all about the El Niño strengthening and continuing to couple, we have until December for that and I absolutely still think the ONI goes super. It’s still very much “East-lean” with regions 1+2 just under 3.0C and 3 almost +2.2C. We have a very favorable period for growth with the intraseasonal forcing about to come up as we see huge subsidence over the Maritime Continent and Indian Ocean (from the ++IOD), and a healthy MJO wave develops and constructively interferes with El Niño in the Pacific. I don’t think an El Niño pattern will be any question going into late fall and winter. The wildcards as I see them now are 1) The very strong -PDO and 2) The stratosphere - how it reacts to the Hunga Tonga effect/QBO/solar with all that record water vapor, won’t have a clear answer with that until late November. 3) The record strong ++IOD. Here’s a good look at the MJO/El Nino: https://x.com/yellow_evan/status/1706854410260042161?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/metryan96/status/1707022444580536753?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

@Gawx More on the major +IOD taking shape. This one is big….very well may be the strongest on record surpassing 1997, 1994 and 2019 and it is going to constructively interfere with the El Niño and have a huge effect on global weather patterns this winter. The graphic in the 2nd tweet shows how it causes massive subsidence over the IO and maritime continent https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1706725901415874652?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1706725991538999802?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw Wow @40/70 Benchmark is absolutely TRIGGERED by Eric Webb’s tweet

I think it peaks solidly over +2 by the end of October/beginning of November. Very possible it surpasses 2019

Been saying this for months and the fact that clowns on twitter are calling this event a modoki is laughable. Wishcasting and denying reality at its best. Here we are at the end of September and region 1+2 is almost +3.0C again and region 3 is pushing +2.2C

The BOM just updated, still looking to be a super El Niño event for NDJ. Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#overview-section=Summary

Yes, mistakes. This +IOD event is looking like it it’s going to be stronger than ‘94, ‘97 and ‘19. Here: https://x.com/climatenerilie/status/1706207793450258791?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Yesterday you linked Amy Butler’s research showing that -QBO/El Nino is very unlikely to produce SSW’s during the winter. Years ago, Joe D’Aleo did a study on Nino’s and Nina’s and the QBO state. He found that -QBO/El Nino were more likely to lead to -PNA/RNA patterns and that +QBO/El Nino were more likely to lead to +PNA patterns. Here is some of that research, his book on El Niños and La Nina’s also showed this study. Link: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf @brooklynwx99 @40/70 Benchmark

This well coupled (per OLR) +IOD event is very impressive, in the top 3 +IOD’s in strength (actually number 2 now) since 1980 and it’s very quickly catching up to 2019 and has already passed the 1994 event. It will constructively interfere with the El Niño as we go forward. In addition, Nino 3.4 just hit +1.7C on the weeklies, making it a top 3 event since 1980 to this point, only surpassed by 1997 and 2015. Nino 1+2 has warmed back up to +2.8C on the weeklies, making it in the top 2 since 1980, surpassed only by 1997 and Nino 3 is at the top right now at almost +2.2C, followed by 1997. It’s honestly mystifying given these facts that this El Niño and +IOD are getting completely dismissed and minimized by some people who are continuing to suggest that the El Niño is never going to couple and we are going full fledged La Niña this winter

Why are you are only showing this month and comparing it to all 3 months (Sep-Nov) in a row of 2019. It just officially got started the end of August. The OLR is very clearly showing a well coupled +IOD: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1705953345570066931?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

@Gawx Region 3.4 warmed up to +1.7C on the weekly update, regions 1+2 and 3 are warming back up again. 1+2 is up to +2.9C on yesterday’s OISST and region 3 is up to almost +2.2C https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1706315453017043211?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1706329495186129101?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This is huge, the IOD has strengthened all the way up to +1.45C, this is already ahead of where it was in 2019, which was the strongest +IOD on record. It’s late September and we are only 0.7C away from the 2019 event’s peak and it’s still projected to keep warming until November. This event is not only way overperforming but it’s very well coupled and is going to have a huge effect on the global heat budget/longwave pattern: https://x.com/ben_domensino/status/1706195455531720746?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/jnmet/status/1705953345570066931?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Yes, it does, 100%. So does the solar cycle to a certain extent. However, we don’t know what exactly those record amounts of water vapor in the arctic stratosphere are going to do this winter. That could be a huge monkey wrench. We should have some idea by late November. As Griteater said, if it’s ice cold at that point, we have big problems

Of course you would leave out his follow up tweets. Here: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946719530156517?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946718280228963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

@40/70 Benchmark @griteater Thought you guys might find this interesting: "Water vapour from Hunga Tonga has been transported into the northern hemisphere, but reached the arctic vortex edge after it was well-developed (autumn 2022) & was only dispersed through the northern hemisphere after a strong SSW in mid-february 2023. Thus large effects on the arctic polar vortex are expected to manifest starting in the 2023/2024 cool season.” Source: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705919910755315821?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This +IOD is quickly strengthening and catching up to and surpassing the 2019 and 1994 events, in fact, it’s starting to turn out stronger than 2019 was at this point in time. It is also very well coupled. The models grossly underpredicted this one and this is going to play a much, much bigger role than people were expecting this winter. This is only going to serve to constructively interfere with the El Niño development. Given this and the very impressive -SOI run, I fully expect a major strengthening of the Nino in October. @GaWx @bluewave See: https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1702714891210195266?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

3.4 is up to +1.7C and the new BOM/POAMA did not have region 3.4 up to +2.0C for September, in fact it has September too cool at +1.3C as you can see: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34

It’s warming slower, but the CRW and OISST have been very close to one another lately. Given that the CRW is over +1.7C, I expect the OISST to follow suit within the next week. This is also supported by the continued warming in 1+2 and 3, the warming of the PMM and the strongly -SOI

This month’s 500mb pattern has matched past strong El Niño September’s (‘82, ‘91, ‘97, ‘09, ‘15) in the mid latitudes. With region 3.4 now getting to +1.7C, it would be really unprecedented for October to flip to a La Niña pattern, especially given the better coupling that has started. I guess anything is possible but that would be very surprising if it does indeed happen

There was an article from many years ago dealing with this issue, I think 2004? Anyway, it showed that ENSO forces the PDO, not the other way around. So it would fit that the PDO does flip to positive but it may take awhile. I kind of doubt it flips to positive by December being how strongly negative it is at the end of September, but I think by early spring (March?), the El Niño does force it to go positive through wind evaporation feedback cooling that area. On a side note, I mentioned before, the PMM does appear to finally be warming significantly and I think this is what is leading to the region 3.4 warming. A few months ago, Eric Webb showed that the PMM was tied to that ENSO region warming and cooling

The PDO is obviously very negative, however, it appears the PMM is warming up very rapidly toward positive and I believe that is why region 3.4 is continuing to warm. Region 3.4 has just gone over +1.7C (CRW). Since 1980, 3.4 is now the 3rd warmest on record up to this point in time, behind only 1997 and 2015. Region 3 is record breaking warm (warmest since 1980) for this point in time at +2.2C and region 1+2 is the 2nd warmest since 1980 for this point in time, at +2.8C, behind only 1997. In addition, the +IOD is the 3rd strongest on record since 1980, behind only 1994 and 2019. https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1704963909348901136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

@Gawx Region 3.4 warmed to over +1.7C on CRW, region 1+2 warmed up to +2.8C and region 3 warmed to almost +2.2C

This is interesting (credit to Ben Noll). Going back to 1980, up to this point in time, only 1997 and 2015 have been warmer than now in region 3.4. Only 1997 has been warmer in region 1+2, region 3 is also at record warm levels and only 1994 and 2019 have had a stronger +IOD: https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1704963909348901136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw @GaWx

I agree that Canada and the northern half of the CONUS very likely averages warmer than normal (DJFM). The southern part of the lower 48 is going to be average to below due to solar irradiance/cloud cover, precip with what is almost certain to be a raging, firehose STJ screaming overhead all winter long

You’re not going to like NOAA’s brand new winter outlook lol Hot off the presses: https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1704948077667467448?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw