snowman19

Why are you are only showing this month and comparing it to all 3 months (Sep-Nov) in a row of 2019. It just officially got started the end of August. The OLR is very clearly showing a well coupled +IOD: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1705953345570066931?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

@Gawx Region 3.4 warmed up to +1.7C on the weekly update, regions 1+2 and 3 are warming back up again. 1+2 is up to +2.9C on yesterday’s OISST and region 3 is up to almost +2.2C https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1706315453017043211?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1706329495186129101?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This is huge, the IOD has strengthened all the way up to +1.45C, this is already ahead of where it was in 2019, which was the strongest +IOD on record. It’s late September and we are only 0.7C away from the 2019 event’s peak and it’s still projected to keep warming until November. This event is not only way overperforming but it’s very well coupled and is going to have a huge effect on the global heat budget/longwave pattern: https://x.com/ben_domensino/status/1706195455531720746?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/jnmet/status/1705953345570066931?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Yes, it does, 100%. So does the solar cycle to a certain extent. However, we don’t know what exactly those record amounts of water vapor in the arctic stratosphere are going to do this winter. That could be a huge monkey wrench. We should have some idea by late November. As Griteater said, if it’s ice cold at that point, we have big problems

Of course you would leave out his follow up tweets. Here: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946719530156517?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946718280228963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

@40/70 Benchmark @griteater Thought you guys might find this interesting: "Water vapour from Hunga Tonga has been transported into the northern hemisphere, but reached the arctic vortex edge after it was well-developed (autumn 2022) & was only dispersed through the northern hemisphere after a strong SSW in mid-february 2023. Thus large effects on the arctic polar vortex are expected to manifest starting in the 2023/2024 cool season.” Source: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705919910755315821?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This +IOD is quickly strengthening and catching up to and surpassing the 2019 and 1994 events, in fact, it’s starting to turn out stronger than 2019 was at this point in time. It is also very well coupled. The models grossly underpredicted this one and this is going to play a much, much bigger role than people were expecting this winter. This is only going to serve to constructively interfere with the El Niño development. Given this and the very impressive -SOI run, I fully expect a major strengthening of the Nino in October. @GaWx @bluewave See: https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1702714891210195266?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

3.4 is up to +1.7C and the new BOM/POAMA did not have region 3.4 up to +2.0C for September, in fact it has September too cool at +1.3C as you can see: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34

It’s warming slower, but the CRW and OISST have been very close to one another lately. Given that the CRW is over +1.7C, I expect the OISST to follow suit within the next week. This is also supported by the continued warming in 1+2 and 3, the warming of the PMM and the strongly -SOI

This month’s 500mb pattern has matched past strong El Niño September’s (‘82, ‘91, ‘97, ‘09, ‘15) in the mid latitudes. With region 3.4 now getting to +1.7C, it would be really unprecedented for October to flip to a La Niña pattern, especially given the better coupling that has started. I guess anything is possible but that would be very surprising if it does indeed happen

There was an article from many years ago dealing with this issue, I think 2004? Anyway, it showed that ENSO forces the PDO, not the other way around. So it would fit that the PDO does flip to positive but it may take awhile. I kind of doubt it flips to positive by December being how strongly negative it is at the end of September, but I think by early spring (March?), the El Niño does force it to go positive through wind evaporation feedback cooling that area. On a side note, I mentioned before, the PMM does appear to finally be warming significantly and I think this is what is leading to the region 3.4 warming. A few months ago, Eric Webb showed that the PMM was tied to that ENSO region warming and cooling

The PDO is obviously very negative, however, it appears the PMM is warming up very rapidly toward positive and I believe that is why region 3.4 is continuing to warm. Region 3.4 has just gone over +1.7C (CRW). Since 1980, 3.4 is now the 3rd warmest on record up to this point in time, behind only 1997 and 2015. Region 3 is record breaking warm (warmest since 1980) for this point in time at +2.2C and region 1+2 is the 2nd warmest since 1980 for this point in time, at +2.8C, behind only 1997. In addition, the +IOD is the 3rd strongest on record since 1980, behind only 1994 and 2019. https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1704963909348901136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

@Gawx Region 3.4 warmed to over +1.7C on CRW, region 1+2 warmed up to +2.8C and region 3 warmed to almost +2.2C

This is interesting (credit to Ben Noll). Going back to 1980, up to this point in time, only 1997 and 2015 have been warmer than now in region 3.4. Only 1997 has been warmer in region 1+2, region 3 is also at record warm levels and only 1994 and 2019 have had a stronger +IOD: https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1704963909348901136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw @GaWx

I agree that Canada and the northern half of the CONUS very likely averages warmer than normal (DJFM). The southern part of the lower 48 is going to be average to below due to solar irradiance/cloud cover, precip with what is almost certain to be a raging, firehose STJ screaming overhead all winter long

You’re not going to like NOAA’s brand new winter outlook lol Hot off the presses: https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1704948077667467448?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I agree and people can say how weak this El Niño is all they want….fact is Nino 3.4 has risen +2.5C in 10 months, that is pretty incredible: https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1704929580614594969?s=20

The funny part is, while 3.4 has remained steady at over +1.6C, regions 1+2 and 3 are both warming. 1+2 is back up to over +2.8C and 3 is up to almost +2.2C, so the east-based nature of this event continues. 3.4 is extremely likely to warm shortly, as the eastern region warming has lead the way and preceded it so far in this event and there is and has been strong -SOI. I’m still expecting region 3.4 to hit +2.0C on the weeklies next month

I’m sticking with a trimonthly ONI of +2.2C. I think we hit +2.0C on the weeklies by mid-October, but the real “show” is NDJ. Still thinking +2.2C, +2.3C, +2.2C (NDJ) in that order, also think the Euro is correct in keeping regions 1+2 and 3 warmer than 3.4 and 4 through February. Without getting into semantics, I guess we can call it an ‘east-lean’ El Niño. In addition, I think the +IOD ends up being even stronger than forecast and plays a much bigger role this winter than people think

Here is the visual for the IMME (DJF): https://x.com/weather_west/status/1704550674305008106?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://x.com/weather_west/status/1704550676196639178?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I know the Euro showed regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than regions 3.4 and 4 through February

Don’t kill the messenger. Extremely good model agreement that we see a super El Niño, they are also still showing it being east-based. Latest guidance from Eric Fisher: https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1704615564163928441?s=20

We couldn’t sustain +PNA back in 15-16, minus that one lone, perfectly timed historic blizzard in January. And we had a raging ++PDO and a super El Niño over +3.0C in region 3.4 at the end of November. Don’t you remember what was happening that winter? Every time a +PNA ridge popped up it got knocked right back down by that raging STJ on roids crashing into the west coast. The models kept pumping +PNAs and huge coastal snowstorms in the long range only to see the STJ beat them right back down as fast as they popped up

Besides the summer profile, this September’s 500mb pattern over the mid latitudes is matching other strong El Niño September’s (‘82, ‘91, ‘97, ‘09, ‘15) to a tee

That new BOM forecast I posted is not based on the POAMA (BOM) model, if you read it, they are basing it off of the International average of models