snowman19

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103855

Time to start watching the stratosphere closely, this month and especially next month to see what stratospheric temps do. We now have full water vapor saturation of the Northern Hemisphere’s polar/arctic stratosphere

So much for the “huge” drop in region 1+2: CRW: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png OISST: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png Region 3.4 warming right back up: CRW: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png OISST: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png Region 3 is still record warm too at around +2.0C

Here is his write up: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf “Westerly QBO (+QBO) usually in El Niños favors a western ridge and eastern trough” @Gawx

I’m not sure how “Niña-like” this winter’s global longwave pattern is. 2 main reasons: 1) El Niño/+IOD would seemingly support MJO 8-1 waves (weak, fast moving waves due to the Nino standing wave running the show and also +IOD causing convective suppression and subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent) 2) Although we have a record, severely negative PDO right now, the Nino forcing this winter (Nov - Mar) should be causing it to deliberately and steadily rise in the coming 5 months. I think it probably takes until April or so before we see it actually go positive due to the fact that it’s tanked right now and it’s going to take awhile to come back up. That said, as per D’Aleo’s research, there may be more -PNA/RNA than would normally be expected in a Nino due to the -QBO, Nino combo, which he found to be supportive of that outcome…..

There are a few models showing a January peak now, so it’s possible that they are onto something. I’ve been expecting a December peak but it’s possible this one doesn’t follow the normal game plan and peaks later than climo

Very rapid cooling of the SSTs north of Australia right now. The +IOD should peak come the beginning of November but it is not projected to go completely back to neutral until February

Here comes the coupling:

Your recent posts discussing Nino development this month

Paul Roundy: “As is often the case in El Niño events during Northern Fall, a subseasonal westerly event transitions the east Pacific from easterly anomalies to westerly anomalies. This signal will strengthen the east Pacific nature of this event.” @so_whats_happening

It definitely got weaker with the arctic/polar (AO/NAO) blocking like ORH_wxman mentioned already. I agree that the threat with a strong/super Nino is an east-displaced Aleutian Low (+EPO, +WPO) and there is also the threat of the -QBO, El Niño inducing -PNA as per D’Aleo’s research that I mentioned earlier

CDAS lol. Modoki index: -0.24. Nothing even remotely close to a Modoki. Total wishcast. And the Euro got stronger with the peak since last run. Showing a super El Niño: https://www.twitter.com/atmospheric_g2/status/1709923014744101071?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This also fits with the Joe D’Aleo studies and research showing -QBO/El Nino (“Nino-East he called it) resulting in -PNA winters

Very high solar flux right now, way exceeding previous expectations. This may play a role in the state of stratosphere as well… https://www.twitter.com/rynelancer/status/1709642809492316649?s=20

The IOD is all the way up to +2.1 on the new update. Also, a very clear MJO phase 8/1 signal still showing up on VP and OLR, projecting weak on the chart due to IO and MC suppression from the Nino and IOD. This is probably the initiating event that gets this Nino really taking off. EPAC tropical activity starting to really pick up too…another sign of deeper coupling

He’s also using 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 and 14-15 as his “analogs”. That’s called “let me find the coldest and snowiest El Niño/borderline El Niño winters for the east coast in the last 70 years and say they are all great “analogs” for subscription money, likes, follows and retweets from east coast weenies who don’t know my little yearly games any better”. “Migrating Modoki!!”. Its the same concept of saying 95-96 and 10-11 are great “analogs” every time there’s a La Niña. Different night, same ending for him…..

Given how insanely negative the PDO is right now, it may take until March or April before it goes completely positive but it should be on the rise during the winter with the El Niño forcing on the mid latitudes

I read a study years ago that showed the exact opposite…..ENSO forces the PDO not the other way around. If that’s correct, the PDO should go up very dramatically by spring

From World Climate Service: September ENSO/IOD index update (ERSSTv5): • Niño3.4 +1.6 (4th highest) • Niño1+2 +2.5 (second only to 1997) • Niño4 +1.1 (record highest) • Modoki Index -0.24 (*not at all Modoki-like yet*) • ENSO Longitude Index: now 5th highest since 1950 • IOD +2.1 (4th highest) And a couple more September SST indices AMO +0.9 (highest on record by far) PDO -1.7 (3rd most negative since 1950 - astonishing to see during El Niño) My add: Nino region 3 was the warmest on record in September Links: https://www.twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1709286540432621601?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://www.twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1709291978796552683?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November back in 2015….that’s not happening. I do still think this one gets over +2C but definitely not that warm

Yes I do. We aren’t going to see a 12/15 style torch a rama. I do however think this winter overall will average warmer than normal

I think it depends in large part on what the stratosphere does (Hunga Tonga being a wild card). I too see a heightened chance of a KU event with a roaring STJ. We will obviously need to time the polar blocking and cold over the top. As far as overall temps, I think it matches 72-73, 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16….although I very seriously doubt a 15 style December torch because I don’t think we see Niña like forcing this time around. I don’t like guesstimating snowfall because as you know, one storm could make an entire season and it’s way too fickle. I do think the forcing moves east come December, the question is how far east?