Chinook

There may be some increasing rotation on this storm, southeast of the UEX radar

It seems like this is a frustrating situation for the dryline tomorrow

We've gone a long way toward recovering from the drought in eastern Colorado, and some of Kansas and Nebraska. Unfortunately, many other areas of the country have continued with drought, or started getting into drought.

What do you think are the five most recent classic tornado alley tornado days? It might be interesting to hear people's thoughts on this. I figure that a lot of chasers in Oklahoma and Kansas are unhappy that the patterns haven't worked out for Oklahoma and Kansas for quite a while. 3/13/2021 - cluster of tornadoes in the Texas Panhandle 4/22/2020 - cluster of tornadoes in Oklahoma, but it wasn't much of a broad plains outbreak 4/29/2019 - a significant cluster of tornadoes in eastern Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri. I'm fairly sure that the general Plains storm chasers wouldn't have considered this the best day to chase, as Missouri is not the best terrain area. 5/26/2019- cluster of tornadoes in northeastern Oklahoma and in Missouri 5/21/2019 - some tornadoes near Topeka 5/17/2019- a couple of long-lived supercells in Kansas and Nebraska 5/7/2019 - Texas Panhandle tornadoes 5/1/2018 - supercells tracked many miles in Nebraska and Kansas. 5/18/2017 - definitely some tornadoes in Oklahoma and Kansas, but not necessarily all in the best terrain for chasing.

MRMS- computed hail swaths (30mm = 1.2", 50mm = 2")

Measured 74mph wind gust at Fort Smith Airport at 0253z

Isolated 84mph wind gust over by Stamford TX (near KDYX)

Two areas of rotation next to Fort Smith, AR

Possible tornado going over I-45 at Palmer. I don't know if that one is confirmed.

two tornado warnings on the same storm

Not sure if the possible tornado at Celina/ Weston is on the ground or was on the ground, but if so, definitely rain-wrapped. edit TDFW data shows rotation south of Weston about 20 minutes ago.

looks like the rotation near Blum has moved north in to the rain

Tornado warning north of McKinney (Dallas area)

tornado warned storm that may have brought 2" hail to this area

The southern storm near Walnut Springs, TX seems like it could develop rotation.

tornado near Granbury

Some storms are starting to form west of Fort Worth, along the cold front.

The SPC has upgraded the outlook tomorrow somewhat to have enhanced outlook, specifically just a 30% wind risk from areas near Tulsa across AR/MO over to near Louisville KY.

I found a new website that can overlay parameters from several models. As you can see the NAM has over 4000 J/kg of CAPE near the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This NAM forecast is relevant to May 3rd. The NAM and GFS both show a capping layer, perhaps meaning that few storms may form.

It does seem like there will be an extended time of snowy weather above 7000 ft or 8000 ft.

Velocity difference is not too high, but it has the classic hole shape of a tornadic supercell.

This is obviously keeping the chances for a tornado in the south San Antonio metro pretty high. Right now it is a radar-based tornado warning (no confirmation)

I don't know what happened to the velocity scans in the last minute, but it looks strong

As we have said in recent discussions, the recent snows at the low elevations have turned to rains and severe weather watches (as of yesterday) and primarily spring-like weather is in the forecast. So, it must be time to start the summer discussion. Monday's weather may be a very similar rainy pattern compared to yesterday (Tuesday.)

KDFX radar is much closer to that storm, and it is severe warned, not tornado warned now.