Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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The southern storm near Walnut Springs, TX seems like it could develop rotation.
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tornado near Granbury
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Some storms are starting to form west of Fort Worth, along the cold front.
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The SPC has upgraded the outlook tomorrow somewhat to have enhanced outlook, specifically just a 30% wind risk from areas near Tulsa across AR/MO over to near Louisville KY.
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I found a new website that can overlay parameters from several models. As you can see the NAM has over 4000 J/kg of CAPE near the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This NAM forecast is relevant to May 3rd. The NAM and GFS both show a capping layer, perhaps meaning that few storms may form.
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It does seem like there will be an extended time of snowy weather above 7000 ft or 8000 ft.
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Velocity difference is not too high, but it has the classic hole shape of a tornadic supercell.
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This is obviously keeping the chances for a tornado in the south San Antonio metro pretty high. Right now it is a radar-based tornado warning (no confirmation)
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I don't know what happened to the velocity scans in the last minute, but it looks strong
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As we have said in recent discussions, the recent snows at the low elevations have turned to rains and severe weather watches (as of yesterday) and primarily spring-like weather is in the forecast. So, it must be time to start the summer discussion. Monday's weather may be a very similar rainy pattern compared to yesterday (Tuesday.)
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KDFX radar is much closer to that storm, and it is severe warned, not tornado warned now.
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4/28-- (Only) 15% hatched hail probabilities for S Texas, with 5%/15%/15% for some areas near the Red River also HRW-NMMB at 27 hours
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Radar at the time of the Truscott, TX tornado (earlier today)
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And sometimes, tornadoes are right in the middle of a squall line?
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I'm glad this isn't in Loveland, CO
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Here's a very distinctive hook echo and possible tornado
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Finally, we are just a few hours away from this relatively weak severe weather event. Considering all things, there could have been a much better tornado day with this upper level trough, but it doesn't look like a big day today. Here are possible severe thunderstorm tracks from the HRRR today, includes maybe a little more activity than I might have expected for some of TX, OK. (17z HRRR, up to 08z)
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1st severe thunderstorm watch of the year for Colorado (east of I-25)
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The models have been kind of a mess on this one. The NWS digital forecast has 0.50"-0.80" for a large part of the area. The NAM and GFS seem to make a little more sense than before, as they seem to be trying to forecast some convective rainfall blobs, even with the cooler temperatures.
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I think this might be a large tornado heading for Douglas, GA. There's 119 kt gate-to-gate shear.
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There's a chance that there's a TDS at Jennings, FL, but the velocity data is kind of weird, so I don't know
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Enhanced risk for SE TX has completely busted unless there's somehow 80 severe weather reports after midnight
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two possible tornadoes in Louisiana
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Areas of convection will develop in AL, GA, and SC. The MCS that will happen tonight in TX/LA will move east, weaken, and possibly provide some outflow boundaries for later convection. I think the parameters are pretty decent. The SPC currently has 15% wind/ 15% hatched hail/ 5% tornado UPDATE: SPC has upgraded to ENH for parts of Alabama and Georgia, with up to 10% hatched tornado risk.
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Yes, Larimer County had 2-4 drought class improvements in the last 3 months, according to the change chart. Alright! How about this idea: let's not have some huge fire this year.
