Chinook

Tomorrow, there will be something that I expect several times during a La Nina winter: high winds, from a northern jet stream disturbance. Southeast Wyoming and Larimer County (6000-9000 ft) have high wind watches tomorrow.

For those in search of a new radar site- also extra helpful for severe storms. The boxes numbered "3" to "15" on the left are zoom levels. https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

possible synoptic setup of the polar cold front, arctic cold front, warm front, and stationary arctic front on the 23rd

My area got about 0.5" of snow last night, and Denver got around 2". Saturn and Jupiter will be (or were) the closest that they have appeared in our sky in many years.

Totals: Dec 10-12: 0.17" precip, 1.6" snow Dec 12-13: 0.08" precip, 1.0" snow

I definitely made a mistake on that. Congrats to those in Oklahoma and Arkansas getting snow. Here are some snow reports and radar from the region.

My area got about 2" yesterday it could always be worse--- Denver, Colorado , December 1990 high and low temps

I can't remember the last time I saw a winter storm warning for Oklahoma.

It looks like KFTG radar got repaired ahead of schedule.

I guess we are at the point where the NWS digital forecast contains the snowfall total for both storms, since they are so close together in time.

sunset tonight I guess our area will get a second (mostly light) snow event from a northwest-flow shortwave on Saturday night. It may start to come in as early as 18z Saturday.

Tonight's No-Accumualtion Model (NAM) is doing the exact opposite: lots of accumulation for Colorado, New Meixco, ansd southeast Nebraska. I think these values are overdone, to some degree.

The models have struggled with some of the features of the upcoming storm system. At this point, there seems to be some agreement that most of CO/NM will get lighter snows of 1"-4" on the mountains, maybe some for Denver. Along with that, some larger precip values will be in SW New Mexico. The main 500mb shortwave will create a low-impact rain/snow event for the Plains/Midwest. At this time, the whole region is falling behind on snowpack, as some higher elevations of Colorado should be getting 30" per month, but that rate of snow is not happening right now. The Canadian/Euro have some more substantial snow for NE New Mexico over to Texas at some on Friday night/Saturday.

Every single model run seems to be different, at about hour ~126

If you are bored with the weather here, a strong trough in Europe is bringing in a moist southerly cloud band, may produce 200cm to 350cm (138") of snow in Italy.

Storm loops http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_500mb_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_850mb_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_radar_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_satellite_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_NWS_sfc_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_GFS_sfc_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Nov_30_2020_GFS_moisture_loop.html

There is some localized moderate snow or maybe even heavy snow in Kansas and Oklahoma. I guess there is a localized winter storm warning for this.

Maybe the Euro will bring this storm back. I am rooting for you to have your SOI change prediction come true, and I'm rooting for any precipitation in the Southwest whatsoever.

On Wednesday, a 500mb low will develop and slosh around under the blocking scenario. Normally this would be a big storm for us as it would have brought in moisture from the Pacific, but it's kind of a non-event this time.

No matter what happens, I will try to post some 4- or 5-day loops of GFS 500mb plot, GFS surface/precip, NWS surface analysis, possibly GFS 700-400mb moisture, possibly IR satellite pics, possibly regional radar for Ohio.

Once again, the 12z Canadian has a more phased storm and has 7-10" of snow for western Ohio. I am starting to wonder which group will win the model-wars-- progressive vs deeper and more phased. It will have a lot of impact on my family members.

I'm still rooting for the 00z Canadian for NW Ohio. It came back on board with 6-13" across western Ohio, depending on whether you not you show Kuchera ratios or 10:1.

500mb storm spinning over Albuquerque

Sunset on 11/25

Just for kicks, I dare you to find a GEFS plume/map with over 20" for Columbus, OH