Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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stronger rotation now with the possible tornado near Watson AR
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radar image of Mount Enterprise TX possible tornado a few minutes ago
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two storms near each other in AR and TN with large hook echoes, tornado warned
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classic hook echo near Osceola, AR
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higher rotation near Hohenwald TN
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Day-1 convective outlook has 30%/30%/10% around Memphis a part of the convective outlook (06z)
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131 mph base velocity
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tornado warned storm west of Junction TX
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possible tornado at Cranfills Gap TX
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The HRRR shows several storms in the Enhanced area from 23z- 02z, including a chance for severe storms near Dallas.
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Several of the top analogs have a large severe weather event, but not the #1, #3, #4 analog matches. (CIPS 00z NAM analogs, 48 hours)
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some more picks-- Thursday, bike trail Sunday - new snow flakes
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If this is the 75-hour forecast for the STP parameter, then I must say that this might be a situation with several EF1+ tornadoes. As was mentioned before, the NAM and GFS have 70 kt to 80 kt winds at 500mb, with 70 degree dew points in Mississippi.
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My place just had a little bit of slop. CoCoRAHS had 0.3" of QPF with maybe 2" of snow. It stuck to the trees, but other than that, just covered over some of the dirty snowpiles, which will eventually look very very dirty in the coming weeks.
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KFTG radar data is still not getting in to Radarscope, but it is getting in to GRLevel3, and it's questionable about my favorite MRMS web page (middle).
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NWS has a winter weather advisory for Denver, so this might be a little more snowy than I thought for Denver. Northeast New Mexico to the Sangre de Cristo range of Colorado should get 24"+
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NWS Birmingham information from NWS Mobile (preliminary) Full text: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSMOB&e=202103200352
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NWS gridded forecasts show 1-4" for the cities for Sunday night- Monday morning. Edit: this might be a reasonable snowfall for central to western Colorado, which didn't necessarily get a whole lot from the big storm.
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The models have some snow on Sunday for the foothills to the Palmer Divide. GFS is a little nuts with the QPF, but the Euro has about 0.5" for Estes Park to the Palmer Divide. So maybe we will keep up the 100% of average snow water equivalent for the mountains for a week or two. That's not too bad. Related to the last storm... let's see, who do we thank for advance notice of the blizzard ... the GFS.. and Raindance!
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most intense rotation tracks from several hours ago (total of 4 hours)
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TDS showing up now near Billingsley
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According to the SNOTEL maps I look at, the South Platte Basin (CO only) jumped from 87% to 100% and the Arkansas Basin jumped from 89% to 102%
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Front Range snowstorm nowcast/conditions 3/13-15
Chinook replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
loops http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Mar_14_2021_500mb_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Mar_14_2021_GFS_sfc_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Mar_14_2021_radar_loop.html radar loop in fact did not include KFTG radar information for some or all of the loop due to some weird problem that I've never seen before (as was shown on the fact that KFTG radar data was not getting to Radarscope) -
Here are some of my ideas based off the 00z models. Initially, you would think the mid-day threat with the cold front/ almost-dryline situation in AR/LA would be the most impressive. But then I was thinking that the continuation of the convection into the night, may bring many more tornado threats. Late night severe threats are always worse from a human standpoint, as people are sleeping.
