Chinook

radar from 10:05 PM Eastern

Super Typhoon Chanthu, a 135-kt storm headed in ... a totally random direction? The HWRF and official JTWC forecasts have this staying a little southwest of Taiwan, perhaps sparing southwestern Taiwan of the 50-kt winds. That still could be wrong though.

This is a picture from the same hike, on Sep 4th. The forest fire smoke has completely obscured Long's Peak. (Compare to picture posted on Aug 29th)

My place got some very light rain on Wednesday night. Then I got a rain shower at 7:30-8:00 this morning and 6:30-7:00PM. For our afternoon storm we had a quick 0.25" or better with constant thunder in the cloud, but I didn't really see any lightning bolts. Then we had some orange clouds at sunset.

from NWS-WPC storm summaries. web page: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

August will have a mean temp of 72.0 or slightly higher for Fort Collins. Note: 1981-2010 climatology is 70.2F, but 1991-2010 climatology is notably higher at 70.7F. Today is another 91 degrees, at least, and the crud is back, with visibility only 5 miles. I tend to think of it like this: at least our area did not have the very high temps of the northern Plains and Pacific Northwest this summer. Also, our area is not listed as being in drought, except for Washington County, CO.

There was a wind observation at Bayou Gauche had a wind gust of 93mph about a half hour ago. Site: BYGL1, listed as a buoy, but apparently on land.

amongst all the talk of the hurricane, perhaps I will post these pictures of a pleasant foothills hike I did yesterday. Some of the recent days have been much lower on smoke/haze (but not today)

This buoy measured 933.6 mb

this oil rig had 951.5 mb a few hours ago

KMDJ (Mississippi Canyon 311) offshore oil rig- 967.8 mb and 102kt (117mph) wind gusts KMDJ 291150Z AUTO 02083G102KT M1/4SM FG BKN002 OVC019 26/26 A2858 RMK A01 KMDJ 291135Z AUTO 03078G101KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 BKN019 BKN025 26/26 A2877 RMK A01 KMDJ 291115Z AUTO 03074G88KT 1/4SM FG SCT003 BKN019 BKN026 26/26 A2896 RMK A01 KMDJ 291055Z AUTO 04058G74KT 1/2SM BR SCT003 BKN014 BKN020 26/26 A2915 RMK A01 KMDJ 291035Z AUTO 05057G69KT 3/4SM BR BKN013 BKN018 BKN050 26/25 A2925 RMK A01 KMDJ 291015Z AUTO 05055G68KT 3/4SM BR OVC017 26/25 A2935 RMK A01 KMDJ 290955Z AUTO 05051G70KT 1 1/4SM BR SCT014 BKN018 OVC022 26/25 A2940 RMK A01

interesting note: Hurricane Katrina made landfall on Aug 29, 2005 at 11:10z at the Mississippi River delta.(Monday morning). Hurricane Ida will be making landfall on Aug 29 2021, most likely a little west of the Mississippi River delta, on a Sunday. Edit: Katrina also continued made a landfall near Gulfport, MS and Bay St. Louis MS a couple of hours later. I saved this image on GRLevel3 (which was a relatively new program at the time) Time Zone is Eastern

we've got wind gusts to 72mph measured in the Gulf of Mexico (10 meter winds or 30 meter winds?)

Yesterday: a collapsing storm over Cheyenne sent a windy outflow to Ft. Collins and Loveland with some wind gusts up to 40mph and low clouds coming in at sunset. This evening: it was about 90 degrees at my place at 6:30. It's just too warm for this time of year. Some orange clouds at sunset. I saw just a bit of lightning to the southeast, but it was a small storm.

There is a possible tornado at Mason City IA. Unfortunately, this is almost the worst radar coverage in Iowa.

Tonight's 00z convection-allowing models show a general consensus for storms to develop in southern Minnesota and possibly continue eastward quickly. A derecho seems possible. Some severe weather could affect the Twin Cities. Some storms could even develop with 50 kt of deep layer shear, certainly rare in August.

a normal blue sky at sunset without forest fire smoke or significant clouds in the west

my observations: Aug 19-20: 0.43-0.48" some thunder. Denver had a lot of areas of 0.3" to 0.5" but also some notable hail over 1". Aug 20- better visibility, reasonable air quality Aug 21: possibly 0.01, thunder

by my estimation, this has made landfall at about 12:57AM Central Time. It must be a terrible, terrible night for some thousands of people on the coast at or near Tecolutla (near Poza Rica)

Large storms in Nebraska/Kansas using 5000 J/kg of CAPE, with one tornado warning.

1000mb?? Hurricane winds way out on the periphery? Did I miss a memo?

A supercell in the metro area has left a swath of large hail, and there may be a tornado at some point here. (no tornado confirmation that I know of.) edit: eastern supercell on I-76 has intensified to 70 dBz.

If Fort Collins got 3.78" in an hour, there would be 7.56" of water on every street

Hurricane Grace at 0828z, with the eye next to Cozumel and about to move into mainland Mexico

Radar from Belize (maybe?)