Chinook

Denver will probably issue a winter storm watch or winter weather advisory. It seems like they would already have done something like that with the "weather story" graphic from their web page.

my radar loop of the storm (ending this morning) http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_28_30_2022_radar_loop.html

Models are back up to QPF of 0.3" to 0.7" for west of I-25. I believe that it will snow over 3" for my place, perhaps much more, as snow ratios could be above 12:1 or 13:1. I just hope it starts after I get home from work on Tuesday. That would be nice. I'm not sure were Mayjawintastawm used to live, but this may generate some interest. (Magenta color is 30dBz). Wind gusts have been even 60mph to 70mph at Cape Cod.

Talking about Groundhog's Day, how about 2/2/2011. This was the Midwest's Groundhog's Day Storm, which was part of a bigger system that brought some of the coldest air I've seen in Fort Collins, with a -19F outside Fort Collins and -17F at Denver Airport, -38F at Laramie. Our localized Groundhog's day storm 2/2/2012 (I think a significant portion of the snow fell on 2/3/2012) Then, there was our other Groundhog Storm, 2016. That was the one where I saw the 500mb trough on the GEFS ensembles something like 12 or 13 days in advance.

Models generally have more than 0.3" of QPF for Tuesday, with some variations in timing.

My area probably got 1" today, possibly a bit more. Storm reports say 1.5" Fort Collins and Loveland, 2"-3" from Longmont down to Denver, possibly 2-4" south Denver

Looks like GFS/Canadian tonight still have a strongly cooling temperatures and snow for Tuesday (2/1) (as discussed before)

Nothing in reality looks exactly like the GFS 180 hour forecast. Nevertheless, we've certainly had times when you've been sort of right. It seems like we have broken out of the very long dry period. It seems like this sort of upper level trough is supported by ensembles.

Snow reports from Denver are 4" to 5", similar to my area. The snow award goes to some rural area outside of Goodland, with apparently some awesome dynamics

The heavier snow is at Denver right now with 1/2 mile visibility at DEN, Erie, BKF (1/4 mile) APA (1/4 mile) As for me, the storm is done. I am pretty sure I got 4".

Several significant weather features came together for a large storm in the Mid-Atlantic area on January 30, 1966. This was a strong phasing situation, that is, a combination of troughs at 500mb. The western lobe of the polar vortex was over the Great Lakes and then dropped in to the Mid-Atlantic, combining with a southern disturbance, which looks like a smaller bump in the 500mb plot. The southern disturbance carried most of the moisture northward. The large divergence at the jet stream level helped to intensify the surface low coming up from the Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure went east of Washington DC and moved northward to Vermont at about 975 mb. On one of the maps posted below, you can see that a combination of multiple events gave over 30" to central Virginia and Maryland within Jan. 20th- Feb 2nd. Lake effect snow under the polar vortex went nuts later in the storm and gave Oswego NY, 60" to 100" a lot coming on January 31st-February 1st. January 30th official NWS Analysis http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/jan2931_1966_500_loop.gif http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/jan2931_1966_sfc_loop.gif http://greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing/1960s/Jan_29_1966/500mb_speed_loop.html http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/jan2931_1966_850_loop.gif

Hey Mid-Atlantic friends. I found this new model output giving probabilities of precipitation for the GFS Ensembles. Right now, some of the Mid-Atlantic has a 40% chance of 1" of snow and eastern Massachusetts has a 70% chance of 1" of snow. (later model hour than this.) I guess we'll see if this type of ensemble output is helpful in the next 2 days. After that, certainly the operational models will be most helpful.

Models generally have snow for eastern Colorado on Monday night-Tuesday with a 500mb shortwave from the northwest

My area got some freezing drizzle and maybe 0.5" snow or better.

We have a new winter weather advisory for freezing drizzle tonight/tomorrow. I didn't really see that one coming.

Here is my radar loop, focusing in on the times when it snowed in Cleveland http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_16_17_2022_radar_loop.html

Interesting fact: a volcano erupted in Tonga (southwest Pacific Ocean) at 04z (Jan 15.) and sent an atmospheric pressure wave and a tsunami halfway across the world. There was a small (?) tsunami detected in Alaska. Barometers picked up a pressure fluctuation across the USA.

It's almost like somebody photshopped this map such that Joplin has rain. Weird one, huh?

looks like there is some snow on the southwest half of the Denver metro

Seems like there's a decent snow rate at Des Moines right now.

Kinda funny how the NWS watches/warnings are a little sporadic at the moment

GFS Analogs #6, #7 and #12 kind of look like the GFS/Canadian this evening, but, hey, winter of 2002-2003 shows up three times, and ... Snowmageddon, and 12/5/03, the last storm that is in the Kocin-Uccellini (2004)

I'm pretty sure this will get lost if I post it in Mid-Atlantic, New York or other subforums, so here it is. Analogs #6, #7 and #12 kind of look like the GFS/Canadian this evening, but, hey, winter of 2002-2003 shows up three times, and ... Snowmageddon, and 12/5/03, the last storm that is in the Kocin-Uccellini (2004)

My thinking is that the East Coast has had more high-NESIS storms from 2002-03 up to the "Great Snow" of 2015, but possibly including the January 23, 2016 storm. Then, I think things have been somewhat more quiet, particularly for Boston starting 2018-2019. "Great Snow" is somewhat in reference to the colonists' "Great Snow of 1717." My area has stayed cooler than Denver since the weekend, with diminishing snow depth, but not zero.

a little off topic here: Models continue to tease the East Coast with the possibility of a major snowstorm for the big cities. Most recent ECMWF has this offshore, but still nobody knows what will happen!