Chinook

I guess we will call this the Monday-Tuesday storm. Models vary on when the first snow bands will get into Larimer/Boulder counties. Tonight Canada has wind chills below -45F. I believe Environment Canada has some sort of different formula for wind chill, maybe?

NOWdata graph says 24.9" compared to record for 25.9" for January 1st to February 19th or 20th. The WPC prediction for one week (168hr) has up to 1.5" to 2.1"+ QPF for some of the mountains, especially west, like in the San Juans. This is the first time we have seen this for a while

We should get some snow with the arctic air mass on Monday night to possibly Tuesday, and then another, perhaps separate storm on Wednesday.

49mph wind gust and snow

We could back into another a mid-week deep freeze and snow

the new line of cells is producing a tornado

I guess this isn't getting a lot of discussion, but may very well be a dangerous tornado outbreak

My area did get 4.4" on Cocorahs reports, but honestly I couldn't measure barely even 3". Maybe some of it compacted, with the sunshine and all.

I got probably 3"-4", somewhat like expected at this point. The snow rate was probably not 1" per hour at any point.

Here is the GFS for later this week. The snow should start some time in the middle of the day on Wednesday, maybe 2:00PM or later. The models have been showing 0.5" to 0.7" QPF for the foothills up to 10000ft, and somewhat lower, possibly 0.3" QPF for the I-25 corridor. Gee, I'm not quite sure I believe the 31"-40" at the Iowa/Missouri border yet. As for Missouri, the NAM and GFS have a major snow for Kansas City, but the UKMET, Canadian, and Euro take it south of Kansas City. So, pretty interesting disagreement at this point in time. The NAM has kind of a nasty zone of sleet south of Kansas City.

As for me, I didn't get any one day over 0.42" in between August 19th-20th and December 31st-January 1st. The snow storm for this week will most likely be in the range of 06z Wednesday to 06z Thursday, and the models have lower snow amounts all across the board, basically, despite a nice location of the 500mb low. I guess we should still be on the lookout for the snow to be impactful.

Some information on Twitter says there has been more than 6" in some areas around Denver.

Winter weather advisory for Denver today, for 2-5" It looks like the snow bands will come in between 3:00 and 5:00

The models today have some snow for Colorado on Wednesday Feb 16. GEFS ensemble means say a 500mb trough dips down to Flagstaff AZ. If it does happen, it is keeping with the theme of mid-week snow. The GFS in fact says the snow starts at 09z on Wednesday, which is 2:00AM. Obviously, don't expect this to be the exact timing. On visible satellite, you can still see the band of snow cover from January 25th going from Greeley and Loveland towards Goodland Kansas a lot of ensemble members have something for NE Colorado (for now)

It has been a snowy time for me, and a bunch of the country, but not far west.

Here are my long loops of the radar for this storm and the GFS surface/precip images. It took me 83 hours of saving radar images for this. Of course, did use the archive feature, but I really did take 4 days of occasional saving of data. http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Feb_1_to_4_2022_radar_loop1.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Feb_1_to_4_2022_GFS_surface_loop1.html

I think I really got 8.5" to 8.7" and 0.58" of water equivalent. These are the last 2 runs of the NOHRSC analysis.

radar and precip type from every station

My place got a bunch of high-ratio fluff, by my estimation, we went from 2.0" at 8:30PM to 7.7" at 11:00PM. Then, I think the snow packed down and we got a much lower snowfall rate. Storm reports 7-11" for Loveland, 7-12" Fort Collins, somewhere around 8" at my place.

radar and all METAR precip types

first accumulation on pavement: 4:00PM or perhaps a little later 8:30PM, 2" on ground or more, snow rate 0.5"-1" per hour, winds 15mph plus, away from town. Probably 5-10mph in town.

Loveland stayed above 50 degrees for a few hours while some cooler air moved in through every other area. The cold air from central Canada is blasting into the Dakotas tonight with 40mph to 55mph wind gusts. NWS Boulder has made some small adjustments: 6-8" Fort Collins, Greeley, Boulder, Evergreen, Colorado Springs, 4-6" Estes Park, Denver Castle Rock, 3-4" Denver Airport, approximately 4"- most of the plains of Colorado. The 00z GFS and Canadian still have pretty high QPF values with 0.6" to 0.9" for west of I-25, which is effectively higher than the NWS expects. And the joke of the day award goes to the ... NAM, with zero snow for me.

pretty cool to be able to make images of frontogenesis for a major event like this

My place is now getting the downslope winds before the storm. It wasn't windy an hour ago, or really, not windy for a few days. Here is what NWS Boulder posted before. This storm is going to hit my homeland of northwest Ohio pretty bad, I think.