Chinook

For Monday-Wednesday, the ECMWF just doesn't want to predict as much snow for eastern Colorado as does the GFS and others. Maybe that's a sign that there are many details yet to be worked out.

Here is the 1:00AM radar/precip type plot. There was moderate snow with higher reflectivity at Denver, but still rain at Fort Collins-Loveland, and a recent changeover to snow at Cheyenne (6100ft)

there have been reports of 5" at Federal Heights/Northglenn and 6" at Littleton, 10" Parker, 7.3" at DIA

There are just some days when Mayjawintastawm shouldn't look at the GFS to about 120 hours. And this is one of those days.

hourly rainfall: 0.04" at Fort Collins-Loveland. It has been a long time since I've seen that, without it being snow. apparently it rained in Loveland before Christmas when I wasn't there.

There is a winter weather advisory for several areas and a winter storm warning for the Palmer Divide and just west of Denver, including Boulder city, less than 6000ft. Looks like the HRRR says there will be some rain after 6:00PM for the Denver area, with snow later at night. hmm, what's that on the models? A larger 500mb low on next Monday/Tuesday in New Mexico. I wonder if we could get some snow in Denver and severe weather on the Plains.

The 00z NAM/GFS/Canadian really do like the Palmer Divide, Colorado Springs, and most of the foothills above 7000ft. GFS has over 15" above 7000ft west of Denver. Maybe the models have figured out a few more aspects of the storm, maybe not. As for me, I believe I've gotten 39.5" since December 31st and 0.5" before December 31st. (3.10" since Dec 31st and 0.14" from Nov 1st-Dec 30th). Much of the snow that is in the shade has melted. The snow that has been in the shade for all this time is crusty snow that has been there since December 31st. Many individual days were snowy without a complete melt when it was 50-60 degrees, at least for very shady areas or small hills facing away from the sun. It's really nice to see some blue skies and 55 degrees. Unfortunately, we can still say this late winter has still been drought/weak winter for western areas. And, by the way, this is the one-year anniversary of the blizzard, when many of us got 20" of snow, blizzard conditions existed for many areas, and the water content was absolutely impressive, over 3" at my place.

WPC still has quite a bit QPF for Wednesday-Thursday morning/afternoon, around Denver. It is possible that the first precipitation could be in the form of rain. The 500mb trough does not seem too large, but maybe the models see the atmosphere has just enough moisture to give out, in kind of a short time frame.

So, the massive storm on the 18z GFS that we talked about on Monday March 7th was certainly a fantasy storm. However, we will have a quick-moving 500mb trough moving through on Thursday March 17th. Each model shows brief but heavy snow from Denver to Colorado Springs. Edit: 00z GFS has a lot of QPF for Denver area. So this is sure to taunt Mayjawintastawm when it doesn't work out right.

some snow bands to 35-40dBz near Nashville

I think I got 1.5" or possibly more. This whole 16 degrees in the afternoon stuff is 38 degrees below the average of high temperature 54.

I know this isn't near Springfield or Joplin, but hey, I'm a fan of mesoscale snow discussions in Kansas

The Denver cyclone swirl is evident on radar loop and the surface wind directions. As for me, it is sunny and snowy at the same time. Well, sunny enough to see shadows a few minutes ago.

I always wanted to know what lightning looks like, you know, without getting hit. https://twitter.com/spann/status/1501325712158035970

It's true, the 18z GFS is like some of the more El Nino-influenced huge storms we've had in the past. But I guess it doesn't mean it can't happen.

The one day when this discussion thread can boast of 175% of average snowfall, more than other major subforum discussions. Well, I guess there maybe 1 or 2 people in Nashville.

It's pretty likely that our area will have a winter storm watch for Wednesday, then maybe winter weather advisory or worse. Tonight's WPC 72-hr forecast says 0.3" QPF for most of our cities, 0.4" Cheyenne, 0.2" Colorado Spirngs, 0.5"-0.8" over 9000 ft.

It was mostly a pretty boring storm for me. Obviously the GFS was not good, neither was the 0.7" QPF from the NWS. I mean, I think I got 0.09" of rain and 1.0" of snow. The sun completely melted the snow that fell the last two days, and it's not even warm. I think there was 5.0" for parts near or in Denver city. And.... we will get back to very cold and snow for Wednesday and Thursday, for maybe the 6th different Wednesday/Thursday this calendar year. This will also affect Nebraska and Kansas. The pattern coming up this week will be a lot more like a February type pattern, with mostly westerly flow, with a trough contained in the Northwest, rather than a distinctive upper low over the Rockies.

It's possible that a large tornado has been going on near Paris and Clarksville AR. There is not an indicator that this is a confirmed tornado.

It looks like Denver has gotten 2.5" to 4.5" today. There has been a transition to showery snow over the past couple of hours, with possibly a higher snow rate in Denver right now. As for me, I think I could still see some grass.

KGRR airport measured severe wind gust of 51 kt

radar shows weak rotation (hopefully) over Cyclone77

Minneapolis - St Paul has VCTS -FZRA, indicating some lightning with 25 miles of the airport.

Here is another radar frame of a confirmed tornado (I believe) from several hours ago, 545pm eastern time. I sometimes wonder what exactly is happening as the base velocity 1+2 levels pick up various high velocities.

So far, the storm has been only some rain overnight (possible rain/snow mix) and then some snowflakes this afternoon. I got pictures of individual snowflakes. The NWS is calling for much 2-3" and 3-4" for the city areas tonight and tomorrow-- no winter weather advisories now.