Chinook

My area had a few minutes of rain, graupel, and lightning, and even thunder somewhat close by. Then, today turned out to be pretty nice, not too windy like Cheyenne.

TDS about 7 mi from Dodge City

confirmed tornado near Copeland KS

Interesting weather note this evening. The upper level low over the Southwest is bringing in so much wind, the flags are flying at Dodger Stadium, the likes of which I've almost never seen for a southern California baseball game.

location of two confirmed tornado warnings several minutes ago (3:53pm Central), also, prelim. tornado report near Jacksonville IL

This is a 12z HRRR run for tomorrow night. The afternoon-evening SBCAPE should be a narrow area of possibly 500 J/kg to 1500 J/kg in western Kansas and down into the Texas Panhandle. Models show convective development. I wonder if the deep layer shear could be too powerful for supercells, given the limited CAPE. As in, the shear could be so great it disrupts updrafts.

might as well post this. NWS point forecasts for RMNP have 4"-8" at high elevations

confirmed tornado at Johnson, OK (0157z radar showed a TDS)

new confirmed tornado warning east of OKC

new tornado warning extends about 35 miles east to west

tornado that was reported at Cooperton

1st supercell of the day in the process of developing now in SW Oklahoma.

The 15z HRRR has some big updraft helicity tracks right through Norman and other areas!

Believe it or not, this is an oak tree. Many of the cottonwoods haven't changed to bright yellow yet.

NAM-3km cross section through the cold front and directly through the severe thunderstorms. Huge differences in upward motion mess with the isentropic surfaces. You can see a slight reduction of the 0C isotherm going towards the left side of the plot.

one confirmed tornado on a squall line in eastern South Dakota.

NWS-WPC 168-hr precip map expecting up to 1" to 1.5" of QPF for western Colorado, and also including upper Larimer County, and 1.0"-2.0" for Wyoming, so possibly high-impact snowfall for areas up near Casper, WY. And, of course, the first snow storm for Colorado for the season, certainly above 6000-7000 ft for the west and central.

hey, King Euro had some fantasy snow for me, for one run.

This seems intriguing. Perhaps 10/9 might be an interesting day to see what the ensemble averages have for 10/19

mini-rainy season

For my area, it was mainly 4.0 degrees F above average, to possibly 5 degrees above average according to this chart. I believe it was the 2nd warmest September for Fort Collins, and 3rd warmest for Denver. In my opinion, it's an extension of the drought in the north and west this summer. Also, the ridge in the West seems to be a teleconnection with the average trough in the Gulf of Alaska in September.

This is the new thread for discussing events in the Mountain West. Looks like ABQ got 0.40" of rain last night, plus more for the Sandia mountains.

Several areas got about 0.05" of today with a non-thunder rain shower moving across the area. It's not much. The temperature was cooler in to the upper 50's just after the rain. This might be one of the last times to be able to use the NCEP web site for the GEFS ensemble plumes, but they still should be on "weather dot us" web site if you are interested in rainfall/snowfall amounts for this winter. Talking about winter, I will start the Mountain West winter thread on Oct. 1st, just perhaps to avoid confusion. It's obviously not too wintry.

Sheridan was almost 40 degrees warmer than Gallup. Temperatures were up to 96 in North Dakota.