Chinook

I always wanted to know what lightning looks like, you know, without getting hit. https://twitter.com/spann/status/1501325712158035970

It's true, the 18z GFS is like some of the more El Nino-influenced huge storms we've had in the past. But I guess it doesn't mean it can't happen.

The one day when this discussion thread can boast of 175% of average snowfall, more than other major subforum discussions. Well, I guess there maybe 1 or 2 people in Nashville.

It's pretty likely that our area will have a winter storm watch for Wednesday, then maybe winter weather advisory or worse. Tonight's WPC 72-hr forecast says 0.3" QPF for most of our cities, 0.4" Cheyenne, 0.2" Colorado Spirngs, 0.5"-0.8" over 9000 ft.

It was mostly a pretty boring storm for me. Obviously the GFS was not good, neither was the 0.7" QPF from the NWS. I mean, I think I got 0.09" of rain and 1.0" of snow. The sun completely melted the snow that fell the last two days, and it's not even warm. I think there was 5.0" for parts near or in Denver city. And.... we will get back to very cold and snow for Wednesday and Thursday, for maybe the 6th different Wednesday/Thursday this calendar year. This will also affect Nebraska and Kansas. The pattern coming up this week will be a lot more like a February type pattern, with mostly westerly flow, with a trough contained in the Northwest, rather than a distinctive upper low over the Rockies.

It's possible that a large tornado has been going on near Paris and Clarksville AR. There is not an indicator that this is a confirmed tornado.

It looks like Denver has gotten 2.5" to 4.5" today. There has been a transition to showery snow over the past couple of hours, with possibly a higher snow rate in Denver right now. As for me, I think I could still see some grass.

KGRR airport measured severe wind gust of 51 kt

radar shows weak rotation (hopefully) over Cyclone77

Minneapolis - St Paul has VCTS -FZRA, indicating some lightning with 25 miles of the airport.

Here is another radar frame of a confirmed tornado (I believe) from several hours ago, 545pm eastern time. I sometimes wonder what exactly is happening as the base velocity 1+2 levels pick up various high velocities.

So far, the storm has been only some rain overnight (possible rain/snow mix) and then some snowflakes this afternoon. I got pictures of individual snowflakes. The NWS is calling for much 2-3" and 3-4" for the city areas tonight and tomorrow-- no winter weather advisories now.

I'm seeing a 135kt maximum wind difference near Altoona IA

tornado moving northeast of Winterset, several minutes ago (552PM Eastern Time)

Hard to believe such nice 66-degree weather with sun will go away so quickly. Some rain and snow in on the radar out west, with a thunderstorm reported at Delta, CO (above freezing)

WPC predictions for both parts of the storm. The overall storm will be moderately helpful for the Western states. It's possible that not all of the 0.7" will be in the form of snow for Fort Collins.

I hope this isn't too far off topic. We have a La Nina winter, once again. Don't you think it is about time that a La Nina winter would bring about some springtime patterns favorable for greater than average tornadoes? I mean this possibly could be anywhere from the standard tornado alley all the way through "Ohio Valley Alley." The unusual part of this is that, this La Nina winter did bring about tornadoes, in WINTER, on December 10th and 15th. So you could argue that some of the Midwest is way above average for springtime tornadoes if you count December 1st as the beginning of springtime. on to the topic the 18z NAM has this in Iowa

NWS-Cheyenne posted that a few high temperature records were broken or tied yesterday in that area. The first part of the storm, most of Saturday, has a chance some snow with perhaps some rain and snow showers early in the storm, possibly some accumulation below 6000ft The second part of the storm from Sunday to Monday should give us a much better chance of accumulating snow over 3"

This represents Sunday Feb 20th to Saturday Feb 26th, which should be one of the coldest 1-week anomalies between now and next winter. As for the models tonight, the GFS/Canadian/UKMET have a short period of rain/snow for us next weekend, as I believe they are keeping a lot of the upper trough energy to the north. We may have to check back on these things in a couple of days. I think there may be snow at some point down the line.

100 hours below freezing? What is this? It's hard to do this so close to the Spring Equinox, really.

my observations from this annoying storm feb 21-22: 0.5" (0.04") record low maximum temp for Fort Collins feb 22-23: 1.2" (0.12") Loveland storm reports showed 1.5 to 4.0", record low maximum temp at Fort Collins feb 23-34: 1.6", (0.13") feb 24- still, just temperatures in the teens

A storm with everything, even TSSN in Oklahoma (seriously)

It's 2 degrees, with some unexpected light snow at 3:00 and 5:00PM. Just drove home at 8:00 with some very light snow rates and 1/4" on the road. Almost nothing was on the radar at 3:00 and 5:00. I guess that's just what happens at 5 degrees, snow just happens with nothing on radar. I think we have effectively started out storm #2, as the radar does show some 5 dBz - 10dBz snow across the area. We have a rare wind chill advisory, outside of Denver. See NWS-Boulder web page for further information (no winter weather advisory at this time.)

oh, you mean like this hail reported when below freezing?

My area went from maybe 55-60 degrees at 2:00 or 3:00PM yesterday to 12 degrees at 6:30PM tonight with a few snowflakes this evening so far.