Chinook

improvements in West Coast - intermountain West snow basins. 56% to 79% for Upper Colorado River.

In town in Loveland got peak gusts just over 50mph, but there was a peak wind of 79mph next to the foothills. I didn't watch it a lot. It was a crazy day to watch some storm reports across the country, like 463 convective storm reports, hundreds of non-convective wind reports, and spreading wildfires and dust storms. There was a "Fire Warning" for Russell, Kansas. I hope it didn't hurt anybody! As mentioned before the "PEAK GUST 75" at Broomfield-Jeffco does translate to 84mph!

likely TDS close to Jefferson IA

There are already a few isolated hurricane-force wind gusts at KBJC (near Boulder), west Loveland mesonet station, and near Colorado Springs and near Pueblo. KBJC 151745Z 27056G73KT 10SM BKN065 BKN085 07/M14 A2924 RMK PEAK GUST 75 KBJC 151700Z 27035G53KT 10SM BKN065 OVC085 05/M09 A2926 RMK PEAK GUST 70 KBJC 151647Z 32024G41KT 10SM SCT026 BKN065 OVC085 06/M07 A2930 KBJC 151630Z 32024G41KT 10SM SCT026 BKN065 OVC085 06/M07 A2930 KBJC 151547Z 31012G21KT 10SM -RA SCT026 BKN065 OVC085 05/M02 A2933 KBJC 151515Z 28018G35KT 3SM -RA SCT007 BKN012 OVC048 04/00 A2935 KBJC 151445Z 28035G50KT 3/4SM RA OVC012 07/00 A2935

I have finally done it. I have made an animated GIF of the HRRR model cross-section prediction of winds. The high winds, above hurricane force (purple) will develop in and above the mountains next to Boulder and work eastward and downwards. This could give hurricane-force gusts to Boulder, and then weaken, as the high wind sector seems to fade out. As you can see, varying winds above gale-force (green) to 50kt (orange) are just above ground for eastern Colorado

A high wind watch issued for much of the Plains, sections of NM, AZ, UT, and WY. Winds of 30kt to 70kt winds will exist at 1000m (or 3000ft) above ground in eastern Colorado on Wednesday

Mid-Iowa might be the warmest relative to average. Here is some discussion from DMX

3 out of the top 5 analogs have some version of a severe weather event.

Good news. The Canadian, UK, and ECMWF have shifted back to give Larimer/Boulder counties some snow on Thursday night/ Friday. The GFS still pretty much has small stuff for Denver to Cheyenne. I don't know if this trend will continue. The forecast inconsistency is still pretty annoying for the most populated areas right now.

We've got a December tornado warning on the mid-Mississippi River near Cape Girardeau, MO.

--- and that's why I didn't post a snow or QPF map last night quick temp drop at Greeley, Fort Collins, Loveland, not really lined up with any clouds on the satellite map. My place dropped off from the 60's to the 50's very recently. Edit: Fort Collins dropped from 61.8 to 32.4 in 2 hours. Edit: Loveland mesonet station dropped from 65 to 24 in just this afternoon to early evening.

Loveland, Route 34? It really has been a nice time to get outside and do some walking and jogging, and get going in the morning without having to scrape off a ton of frost or snow. But it does look like winter is coming. Tomorrow, shallow cold front will move in to the I-25 area from the east, and it will stay. The 30-degree cold air mass will be in northeast Colorado for Monday. Most likely, there will be a significant storm at the end of the week. The models have some consensus that the upper level trough will drop down from the Pac NW on Thursday to Utah on Friday, with significant snow possible for Nevada, Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. As for the Plains, today's models have variable predictions of QPF for Larimer County, SE Wyoming, and western Nebraska. That, is, of course, the main question. It is 6-7 days away, so I guess we won't know yet. This upcoming storm will obviously bring a significant increase in snow cover over 9000 ft. and here's something you might not want to see

The models are consistent with a low pressure in Colorado on Tuesday. So far, no models are showing much precipitation. Today's models have a large storm for next Fri-Sat, so that is definitely something that could be discussed over the next week. Today's ECMWF has 987mb near Colorado Springs next Friday and snow at Denver.

record breaking in Montana

11/29

Hey, I found something that looks like a moderate snowstorm for Wyoming and the mountains of Colorado.

Of course, it's 70 degrees at a couple of spots around Denver, because it has to be. And it's nice to go outside. After several months of drought in the West, and there's not a cold pattern at all. Upper level trough: minimal. Precipitation: yes, some. Return to warmth: yes.

Today, my area was over 65 degrees after midnight, it cooled down at random times in the morning hours, then got to 70 degrees with scattered clouds/ lenticular clouds. Now it is 50 degrees. I kept looking for a possible lenticular picture, but I have nothing to show for it. I was busy at sunset, which would have been a good time to take a picture. Typical high/low is 53/26. As mentioned by RaindanceWX, the daily SOI value has dropped to a negative value. I have not followed this much, but seems to be correlated with something going on in the subtropical jet stream in several days (10 days?) Maybe hard to get a subtropical something-or-other going during a La Nina. GEFS means show not a whole lot of reason to believe in sustained upper level troughs in the West. Also, not too much QPF by any model in the near future. Well, maybe the 12z Canadian came up with something crazy, but that's about it.

maybe only some very specialized backyard stuff. Otherwise soil moisture is low. I don't think any trees like to do any flowering in November. They could get fooled by weather in March and April, as frost can come after 80 degree temps. Sunset 11/12

Lots happening in the last couple of days. I used the Iowa state local storm report plotter for this, and it appears they have some upgraded software that makes it easy to see multiple snow reports, and distinguish them from rain.

Great post. From my understanding, 11/11/1911 was one of the greatest temperature drops that Missouri has ever seen, accompanied by various tornado reports before the cold front.

Possible tornado Tulsa suburbs, Tulsa Airport Confirmed tornado near I-44/I-244 highways

Models/ensembles now showing some version of a change to colder temperatures around 11/17-11/18.

We're using the GFS, which used to be the parallel-GFS. They were testing out the new computer code, but now it's the operational one. Not sure if there were any bug-fixes which would have made the crazy 30" snowstorms go away. I personally think the models have been all over the place with weather patterns at 7 days+. So good luck trying to find a fantasy snowstorm. There may be some. The two good things about Mountain Standard Time now are: more light at 7:00AM, and the evening models come in 1 hour earlier, so the 00z NAM-12km should be partially done by 7:30PM, 00z GFS, maybe 9:00 and later.