Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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MRMS- computed hail swaths (30mm = 1.2", 50mm = 2")
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Measured 74mph wind gust at Fort Smith Airport at 0253z
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Isolated 84mph wind gust over by Stamford TX (near KDYX)
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Two areas of rotation next to Fort Smith, AR
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Possible tornado going over I-45 at Palmer. I don't know if that one is confirmed.
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two tornado warnings on the same storm
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Not sure if the possible tornado at Celina/ Weston is on the ground or was on the ground, but if so, definitely rain-wrapped. edit TDFW data shows rotation south of Weston about 20 minutes ago.
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looks like the rotation near Blum has moved north in to the rain
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Tornado warning north of McKinney (Dallas area)
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tornado warned storm that may have brought 2" hail to this area
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The southern storm near Walnut Springs, TX seems like it could develop rotation.
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tornado near Granbury
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Some storms are starting to form west of Fort Worth, along the cold front.
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The SPC has upgraded the outlook tomorrow somewhat to have enhanced outlook, specifically just a 30% wind risk from areas near Tulsa across AR/MO over to near Louisville KY.
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I found a new website that can overlay parameters from several models. As you can see the NAM has over 4000 J/kg of CAPE near the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This NAM forecast is relevant to May 3rd. The NAM and GFS both show a capping layer, perhaps meaning that few storms may form.
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It does seem like there will be an extended time of snowy weather above 7000 ft or 8000 ft.
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Velocity difference is not too high, but it has the classic hole shape of a tornadic supercell.
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This is obviously keeping the chances for a tornado in the south San Antonio metro pretty high. Right now it is a radar-based tornado warning (no confirmation)
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I don't know what happened to the velocity scans in the last minute, but it looks strong
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As we have said in recent discussions, the recent snows at the low elevations have turned to rains and severe weather watches (as of yesterday) and primarily spring-like weather is in the forecast. So, it must be time to start the summer discussion. Monday's weather may be a very similar rainy pattern compared to yesterday (Tuesday.)
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KDFX radar is much closer to that storm, and it is severe warned, not tornado warned now.
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4/28-- (Only) 15% hatched hail probabilities for S Texas, with 5%/15%/15% for some areas near the Red River also HRW-NMMB at 27 hours
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Radar at the time of the Truscott, TX tornado (earlier today)
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And sometimes, tornadoes are right in the middle of a squall line?
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I'm glad this isn't in Loveland, CO
