Chinook

new tornado warning extends about 35 miles east to west

tornado that was reported at Cooperton

1st supercell of the day in the process of developing now in SW Oklahoma.

The 15z HRRR has some big updraft helicity tracks right through Norman and other areas!

Believe it or not, this is an oak tree. Many of the cottonwoods haven't changed to bright yellow yet.

NAM-3km cross section through the cold front and directly through the severe thunderstorms. Huge differences in upward motion mess with the isentropic surfaces. You can see a slight reduction of the 0C isotherm going towards the left side of the plot.

one confirmed tornado on a squall line in eastern South Dakota.

NWS-WPC 168-hr precip map expecting up to 1" to 1.5" of QPF for western Colorado, and also including upper Larimer County, and 1.0"-2.0" for Wyoming, so possibly high-impact snowfall for areas up near Casper, WY. And, of course, the first snow storm for Colorado for the season, certainly above 6000-7000 ft for the west and central.

hey, King Euro had some fantasy snow for me, for one run.

This seems intriguing. Perhaps 10/9 might be an interesting day to see what the ensemble averages have for 10/19

mini-rainy season

For my area, it was mainly 4.0 degrees F above average, to possibly 5 degrees above average according to this chart. I believe it was the 2nd warmest September for Fort Collins, and 3rd warmest for Denver. In my opinion, it's an extension of the drought in the north and west this summer. Also, the ridge in the West seems to be a teleconnection with the average trough in the Gulf of Alaska in September.

This is the new thread for discussing events in the Mountain West. Looks like ABQ got 0.40" of rain last night, plus more for the Sandia mountains.

Several areas got about 0.05" of today with a non-thunder rain shower moving across the area. It's not much. The temperature was cooler in to the upper 50's just after the rain. This might be one of the last times to be able to use the NCEP web site for the GEFS ensemble plumes, but they still should be on "weather dot us" web site if you are interested in rainfall/snowfall amounts for this winter. Talking about winter, I will start the Mountain West winter thread on Oct. 1st, just perhaps to avoid confusion. It's obviously not too wintry.

Sheridan was almost 40 degrees warmer than Gallup. Temperatures were up to 96 in North Dakota.

Some rain and thunderstorms will affect the southwestern US on Monday through Thursday. For northern Colorado, there should be a chance for rain on Wednesday with a cold front. There is a chance that another upper low could bring heavy rain to New Mexico and Texas after that. The GEFS averages say that Denver will be above average for almost every 5-day period out to 15 days.

sunset

Updated dashboard on College of Dupage weather web site. Looks like they could have Canadian GEM-GDPS at some time in the future.

measured rainfall near Toledo 9/20-9/21: trace to 0.08" (0.01 at KTOL) 9/21-9/22 (as of 12z) about 1" to 3.94" (2.78" at KTOL) 9/22-9/23 (as of 0056z) 1.08" at KTOL KTOL total: 3.87 this is a very high 3-day rainfall total for any one spot in NW Ohio

sep 1: light rain (trace) sep 1-2: low visibility again sep 3: morning rain shower 0.01 to 0.12" evening thunderstorm. constant thunder in clouds, total: 0.34" sep 9: high temp of 95-97 (record) sep 10: high temp of 95-98 (record) sep 11: high temp of 96 at fort collins (record) sep 13-14: nighttime thunderstorms of 0.03" with 0.10"-0.48" in Fort Collins and 0.08" in Loveland sep 16: high temp of 90-93 sep 17: high temp of 71 sep 18-19: high temps in the 80's sep 20: sprinkles overnight (trace), high temp of 66-70, clear sky, light snow on mountains, north wind of 20 mph

Larimer County got some unexpected thunderstorms last night, with around 0.10" to 0.48" for Fort Collins

3 Records in a row for Fort Collins A couple of rain showers came in today. There was brief thunder, and the pavement got wet, but not for too long. The view of the mountains is now much more clear.

St. John's observation, wind gusts of 78 knots or 89.7mph METAR: CYYT 110424Z 18044G78KT 2SM R16/5000VP6000FT/D RA BR OVC003 19/19 RMK SF8 PRESFR DENSITY ALT 2200FT

We've had 7 straight days of some forest fire smoke, and yesterday Fort Collins broke a record at 96 degrees. Today: I believe Fort Collins broke a record with 98 degrees. Denver was 96, and then 99 today.

Cape Race observation: 41 knots gusting to 58 knots METAR: CWRA 110300Z AUTO 16041G58KT 19/19 RMK AO1 5PAST HR M PK WND 15058/0253 P0014 T01940191 50057