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Chinook

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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    Today is already somewhat active with a few warnings near Evansville/Louisville and a couple in Minnesota and Missouri. SPC dropped the 10% risk for tornadoes up north and replaced it with 5%
  2. Chinook
    possibly useless fact: CIPS analog #5 (today's 12z run) has 5/31/98, which was a derecho from Wisconsin to Michigan, with severe weather reports in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and Massachusetts on 6/1/98.
  3. Chinook
    Precipitation and snow amounts nearest to me in the last few years. Annual means January to December, not some weird combo water year months or anything like that. 2012-2013: incomplete winter data, but 39.5" snow for just April-May WINTER 2013-2014 : 50.8" WINTER 2014-2015 : 38.6" WINTER 2015-2016 74.4" WINTER 2016-2017 snow 38.3" with snow-water equivalent 5.33" 2017 annual precipitation (Fort Collins): 18.05" WINTER 2017-2018: 39.9" (Fort Collins) 2018 annual precipitation (Fort Collins): 15.06" WINTER 2018-2019 44" (Loveland) 2019 annual precipitation (Loveland): 14.23" WINTER 2019-2020: 79.9" (Loveland) 2020 annual precipitation (Loveland): 13.15" WINTER 2020-2021 snow 78.8" (Loveland) 2021 annual precipitation (Loveland) 14.37" JAN 2022 18.8" snow 1.50" precipitation FEB 2022 17.6" snow 1.24" precipitation MAR 2022 0.88" precipitation, 3.1" of snow APR 2022: 0.11" rain, no snow WINTER 2021-2022: 39.5" (Loveland) (or more?)
  4. Chinook
    5110 ft. I hope my place gets the expected value of 1" -2" of snow or less. See NWS- Boulder briefing (PDF) under the heading "SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING." I kind of wish we had something like 70% chance of rain and 70 degrees, seriously. My place got thunder/lightning and 0.03" of rain on Yesterday (Tuesday). I think maybe up to 0.10" in Fort Collins. There were few other areas that got much. I saw a shower of snow hitting the top of Long's Peak, so that was cool.
  5. Chinook
    I don't think I've ever used GRLevel2 to make a 2D vertical slice of base velocity quite like this. This is at 0323z when the bowing squall line was at Topeka. There were 75kt winds detected at some low altitudes south of Topeka.
  6. Chinook
    I think the SPC could go with marginal or slight in Minnesota tomorrow, as you discussed. As for Thursday evening, there will be excellent severe weather parameters near the low pressure and warm front near Minneapolis and La Crosse WI. I think the SPC's day-2 discussion will be considering an enhanced risk near there.
  7. Chinook
    Maybe the snow won't freeze the plants too bad. Let's hope.
  8. Chinook
    I saw the lunar eclipse quite nicely as it was just a bit above the trees when it started last night, and clear skies.
  9. Chinook
    An early day MCS, with possible severe winds and hail is likely to affect the area of some of the Missouri/Arkansas people on this board. There may be later-day development of severe storms in eastern Oklahoma update: SPC retains enhanced risk for southwest Missouri DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS...
  10. Chinook
    In South Dakota today, this incoming squall looks like a wall of dirt (I think it's mostly clouds and rain, maybe dirt) and then the video looks black after this. I'm sure it wasn't as black as night in reality.
  11. Chinook
    really a huge blowup of convection today last 24 hrs (radar data only)
  12. Chinook
    this group of storms has gone from central Nebraska and now is seen on Duluth's radar, continuing with wind reports at some 68 kt winds shown in the clouds on base velocity, where the radar sees the wind the best.
  13. Chinook
    We've got a derecho, most likely, considering the strict official definition of the word derecho. There are a huge amount of storm reports in the same area. Some of these are from the morning in Minnesota.
  14. Chinook
    There have been measured wind gusts of 90mph + at Madison South Dakota and Madison Minnesota!
  15. Chinook
    Now, KFSD radar showing 80-100 knots base velocity of the rain within the line of storms at the state border. I think a few areas get 80-100mph wind gusts Yes, I know knots are not miles per hour, but hey, this actually kind of makes sense as the measured surface winds are a little below the measured base velocities.
  16. Chinook
    New tornado watch in northeast South Dakota, that shows 70% probabilities of 10 or more wind reports, also the same with hail, and moderately high probabilities of tornadoes, EF2-EF3 tornadoes, as it makes sense with the outlook for today.
  17. Chinook
    A squall line is already getting going at Broken Bow, Nebraska. Dew points up to 70 at Huron, SD and Sioux Falls, SD. this probably needs a severe storm watch right now
  18. Chinook
    NWS blacksburg confirmed a EF1 tornado south of Wentworth
  19. Chinook
    Maybe around 1.0" of much needed rain for me, and about 1.29" since the beginning of the month. Some of these storms have been generous to the Plains. We can say there has been some drought relief for northern Kansas and Nebraska. At least this chart says my area got 100% of average precipitation over two weeks.
  20. Chinook
    Funnel cloud at Norfolk south suburbs, VA
  21. Chinook
    It does look like tornado debris has been on the radar south of Wentworth, NC.
  22. Chinook
    extreme northern North Carolina radar most likely detected a TDS in this vicinity, Walnut Cove to Mayodan/Madison
  23. Chinook
    possible hail up to 1" west of Raleigh NC right now. (0.75" reported) I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado warning west of Raleigh or perhaps east, near Williamston or Greenville NC, given the overall scenario with higher parameters in the area.
  24. Chinook
    Enhanced outlook for the tornado (10%) and wind (30%) for parts of Virginia and North Carolina. The tornado 10% area includes areas near Richmond into northern North Carolina. The wind outlook is a larger 30%.
  25. Chinook
    There was a tornado report with injuries noted at the small town of Brachfield Texas, time was 1924z or possibly a bit later.
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