Chinook

The Texas panhandle is warming up, with southeasterly winds at some spots. The SPC mesoanalysis shows a lot of areas up to 3000-3500 J/kg of CAPE near the Red River now

This is the Hi-Res FV3 model at 21z, along with dew points. It has discrete storms in the Texas Panhandle, a much larger cluster with perhaps cooler surface temps in Oklahoma, and about 4 storms surrounding San Angelo. It is kind of hard to say which storms may develop with the greatest significant tornado parameter. The HREF average significant tornado parameter, best values are all surrounding the Red River.

The rotation went right over Findlay, and still exists as a somewhat broad rotation, easily detected by KCLE. Findlay has this bad little situation that it's in the radar hole, so all radars are at least 90 miles away, I think.

Maybe the convection allowing models are making things worse.

new tornado warning a long way southeast of Oklahoma City. confirmed tornado at 7:54 central time mentioned in the warning. edit: debris field was 1 mile wide at an area a couple of miles west southwest of Seminole.

There are two non-confirmed tornado warnings near Tulsa. I think the southern storm has broad rotation that may be evolving into a higher coverage of wind or possibly a higher coverage of hail in the metro. There is some possibility of a new tornado developing out of it.

new tornado warning with maybe a couple areas of rotation

that was a roughly 1 mile wide CC drop for the debris, so, obviously pretty notable damage and debris in the air.

Enid, max wind of 55 kt from the northwest with rain. wind must have shifted from the southeast. Just think if you had to walk to your car.

I think the rear flank winds kind of busted out there and started up the spin next to Enid.

I haven't had a whole lot of reasons to watch the Oklahoma City TV stations since May 2013, when of course the helicopter crew caught the developing Moore tornado. And I think there was something on the May 30th or 31st in that same year.

the helicopter crew caught another brief tornado on the ground at 4:26, but then it was kind of gone

yeah, watonga, Loyal, real brief tornado, as they said on the air at maybe 4:15 central time

helicopter view of tornado from Oklahoma City - News 9

maybe distinguishable funnel cloud near Watonga

Storms by Alva seem to all being showing the curvature such that they might be supercells. I would suppose they could compete quite a bit. Still kind of awesome to see every single storm looking like a kidney bean. I would think one or more storms will produce a tornado in that group.

It should be a surface-based updraft. Perhaps a brief moment when I believed the CC (correlation) looked low, as if a debris signature. But I don't know if the debris signature ever happened, or I suppose, nobody ever reported a tornado.

already looking a lot like a possible tornado producer near Bucklin, Kansas (radar from 1959z)

My area had 0.11" rain in April and 0.30" rain last night. The grass has been quite dry. I don't think many lawns can run their sprinklers, because they probably activate sprinklers after the chance of frost is gone. We've got 85% humidity today. That's something. edit: western Nebraska really does have accumulating snow today, so, kind of a rude awakening for May, but it should help with the drought, with maybe some 0.5" water equivalent going to help the crops as soon as it melts.

3-d view of tornado warned storm at Andrews a few minutes ago two updrafts

WRF-NSSL really has a large cluster of storms, stretching some 150-200 miles along I-20. I wonder if this is possible.

I'd say there is a strong case for a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma, as long as they can hit the 70's after the morning storms.

Convection-allowing models showing numerous storms from SE Colorado down into New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico. Each model shows the storms heading eastward, rather than stalling. This particular model has has a storm near Wichita Falls. The overall scenario looks very good, with mid-50's dew points, 0-6km shear of about 50 kt, and, as mentioned in the long SPC discussion, increasing storm relative helicity. By the way, the people of the region might freak out if they see a raindrop, let alone heavy rain or a tornado. Last rain over 0.01" at Tucumcari, NM was March 31st.

Near Bloomington, Illinois

confirmed tornado warning at I-294 and Westchester, Elmhurst