CAPE

EPO ridge + neutral/slightly positive PNA and favorable NA showing up on the ens runs and continuing well into Jan on the ext products

This is snow for us verbatim on the mean.

The semi weenie, optimistic one? Uh oh, what have I just done? BP fastball down the middle.

Imperfect patterns can produce snowstorms here. H5 a few days before the Jan 2022(CAPE) storm- The day before as the storm is approaching-

Pretty much everything in nature can be represented by a sine wave, including the mood of snow weenies.

We are into prime snow climo for that period. Hopefully it's real and continues into Feb, where historically it(whatever it is) likes to snow on us.

Gimmie a big EPO ridge with a respectable NA. This pattern has worked quite well for much of the region in recent winters for bringing the cold and facilitating multiple moderate snow events. Been a persistent look on the extended products for mid to late month and now showing up towards the end of the ens runs. Latest "weeklies"

Yeah ready for the wind to die down already. Tomorrow should be nice, before colder and more wind on NYD.

^I wont be staying up/getting up early to see the potential flurries. HH has begun and will continue for the foreseeable future. New Years eve eve.

Mount Holly's take for tonight. Pretty much ditto for tomorrow night for here, with a solid dusting to an inch or 2 possible up into east central/NE PA. Skies will be mainly clear early, however will see a thickening and lowering in cloud cover after midnight as a strong, quick- moving shortwave approaches. This wave will be lacking moisture in the low levels as it treks east but may remain strong enough in the mid levels to overcome the dry air in place over the Mid- Atlantic. So, while there may be a slight chance (~20%) of snow showers near the I-95 corridor, have opted to at least include the mention of flurries areawide during the 4 AM to 10 AM timeframe on Wednesday. Outside of a light dusting in isolated areas, no accumulation is expected. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s with wind chills in the teens for the majority of the area, with mid to upper teens and wind chills in the single digits in the higher terrain.

Same general look, but the position/amplitude of the trough in the Pacific is slightly different with the EPO ridge further east. Impacts the location and character of the downstream trough. The bottom panel is a nice gradient look. Get a wave or 2 with the boundary to our south and we snow.

That's because the initial conditions are different each model cycle so the perturbation of those initial conditions among the ens members often results in somewhat different outcomes from one run to the next. The ensemble forecast is a 'check' on the higher res deterministic for that particular run- each ens run gives an indication of uncertainty(error in initial conditions) for that particular deterministic outcome, and so (especially at longer range) they will also reflect some differences from run to run. 8-10 days out I simply monitor the mean over a series of consecutive runs, and the outcome generally stays pretty consistent, depending on the model, number of members, etc. Anecdotally the Euro/EPS seems more consistent from one cycle to the next. That's my take and I am sure its not completely correct lol.

Block broke down. HP runs away and low tracks west. No coastal redevelopment in that scenario. We got a few more runs to go.

I suppose. Just watched the Falcons beat the Rams. Didn't see that coming. Stafford has been so good but not tonight.

Y'all actually doing pbp on GFS op run 10 days out? lol

Nothing crazy good, just Bulleit. Decent bang for the buck and something I can actually drink straight without spending big bucks.

I need another bourbon.

I have no idea why he posts this crap. Its not going to boost morale when half the forum is about to bail on winter already lol. FOCUS ON THE 500 MB PATTERN AT THIS RANGE. Fucking fuck the goddamn snow maps FFS.

Yeah the signal for a storm on the 18z GEFS isnt great. Its there, but not overly impressive. That said, we are 10 days out, and the h5 look IS consistently conducive across guidance.

Its been more impressive on the EPS-

If a significant snowstorm is in the offing the 9th is probably the one. Signal has been there on the ens means and h5 has that look in the HL with the +height anomalies moving west into Baffin.

LOL TBH his posts have been much better lately. He possibly knows too much, and the rest of us just cant grasp it.

Only if Lamar is the QB. Monken cant help himself if he has a QB who can throw downfield accurately. That's not Huntley- He can run a bit and throw short passes and screens, and HAND THE BALL OFF TO A HALL OF FAME BACK. In a way I hope Lamar cant go.