CAPE

Euro never looked great, but now its even more crappy for much of the region like many of the latest meso runs.

Now watch the Euro go nuts at 18z lol.

Go back and look at 0z and 6z runs for the Euro and the 3km NAM and try to make a case that one was better than the other lol. They basically flip flopped.. but we are talking an inch of snow +- a couple tenths. It's splitting hairs lol.

Good thing is, its a weak little event for our region, so we talking something like a range of a coating to a half inch to maybe 2" someplace. Bigger fish to fry going forward.. hopefully. The one red flag is the Euro was pretty persistently never really into this one. Most of the recent runs it had an inch or so max, and before that not much of anything. GFS is the worst again lol.

Not sure if this was posted- I didn't see it so here is the Euro AI. Better than the last 2 runs

Ended up with mostly sleet here mixed with rain. Actually can see a coating in the mulch, on the deck, and the roof. Temp is 35.

I would go with that for my yard too, although most if not all guidance has at least an inch here. When dealing with such paltry amounts plus marginal temps and disparity among guidance on where the highest qpf will be, hard to be confident in more than an inch anywhere in our region really.

Euro now likes places to our NE lol. Cant use snow total map because of what it thought fell today, so this is pretty accurate for tomorrow.

I think this event is almost entirely dependent on the upper level jet streak- how strong it is and exactly where the right rear entrance region is located.

Surface temps are gonna be marginal. If precip comes down with intensity, temps will fall to 31-32. Otherwise it would be in the mid to upper 30s. The ratios are going to be shit, worse than 10-1.

12z GFS isnt great either- still decent here but really cut back for I-95 and NW

12z CMC really shit the bed lol.

Same here. I think its just rain now. Pretty much expected

You have another fridge right?

12z FV3 looks nice. Big improvement over the 0z run.

Still dry here. I think most of this will pass to the NW. Fine with me because it would probably just be light rain and I'm going out to split some firewood. Need to stock up for the vodka cold that's coming.

lol it was mostly right along the coast that was still getting snow. Maybe a slight chance for low end warning criteria there. Marginal temps will probably keep accums lower though.

Finished product-

Low level temps are going to be marginal but should cool as precip intensity increases, assuming it does.

39 here with a beautiful sunrise as clouds move in.

Latest Natty Blend. For both events ofc

They hinted at that, but still quite a bit of disparity. AI aside, Its the GFS and a few of the CAMS that have more snow and are more expansive with the precip.

1-2" in the forecast here. See how trends go today but probably a good forecast. Maybe 3" or so closer to the coast.

Morning AFD from Mount Holly for tomorrow- KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low slides by offshore on Sunday, bringing some snow, mainly to areas along and south/east of I-95. The highest snow amounts will be concentrated near the coast. An area of low pressure develops off the coast of the Outer Banks on Saturday Night and lifts northeast. The low looks to pass by close enough to bring some snow to the region, mainly along and south/east of the I-95 corridor. The latest trend with the 00z guidance was a slight jog northwest with the track of the low, which would bring more snow to the region. However, will not deviate much from the previous forecast to avoid wind-shield wiping the forecast plus the setup is not overall conducive for a significant snow event. The deterministic forecast is more in line with HREF and NBM. Thinking around 1-2" from I-95 on south and east. Cannot rule out some amounts higher than 2", especially near the immediate coast. However, there could be some mixing issues in the coastal areas as well at onset as temperatures will be above freezing in the low- levels. This may be offset though by higher QPF compared to inland areas and heavier snowfall rates. Both NBM/HREF probability of 2" or more (Advisory criteria) is around 20-30% for the coastal counties with 10-20% near I-95. So, we may need winter weather headlines near the coast, however the theme with this event remains unchanged as it should just be a rather light snowfall with insignificant snowfall totals.

It will completely disappear, come back, morph into something else, etc before we know anything useful about any outcome. The takeaway is we have a better than avg chance of a winter storm or 2 with the advertised upcoming pattern. That's all.