CAPE

Sure, but you are up on a mountain lol. Both of these 'threats' look to have marginal cold to work with, so a lot has to go right, esp for the lowlands.

Its probably wrong, but running up the ass end of that northern vorticity isnt gonna work. Need more spacing.

I don't pay much attention to that stuff. Mostly Voodoo. Its a weak Nina that's getting weaker. To me that makes the patterns/sensible weather more of a wildcard.

High wind watch.. don't see that often here. Fuck.. Friday Night A chance of light snow after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

Hey I love me a +PNA/-EPO pattern with bigtime cold. That's worked out well for southern/eastern parts of our area recently. Not so much for folks NW of I-95. That includes you I think. Why root for cold and dry lol.

What do you want, some perfect pattern? When we get those they often don't produce anything. In mid to late Feb snow historically comes pretty easy in our region. Lately not so much, so we got the WDI in our favor too.

12z GEFS kinda likes that window too Here ya go snow map freaks- not bad 2 weeks out lol

How about this look? The Pac ridge shifts northward and builds into the WPO domain, which causes the deep trough out west to weaken and shift north/expand eastward some. If this verifies there will be more of a mechanism for delivery of colder air into our nearby source region. No hint of a SE ridge and potentially active with energy in the southwest ejecting eastward.

As I posted this morning, the potential for a storm after the storm, around the 20th, is looking pretty interesting.

That was a classic lol

For some reason when I read this I thought of the illegal U-turn.

You know there is now a person here with the screen name Jake Wx? I had to look twice before I realized it was you lol

I just thought it was weird he even brought you into his whiny rant.

Just keep him out of the main threads. Panic room only access lol.

I think I'm gonna. So much bullshit. And Randy might be interested to see it.

He didn't like my post lol. He messaged me...I might post it in banter.

Your 'analysis' is a broad generalization and is whiny and lazy as fuck.

Storm after the storm potential on the EPS with energy ejecting east from the southwest and the look up top on the Atlantic side remaining largely intact.

It has been suggestive of a wave or 2 between the 9th and 12th on recent runs. There is some decent vorticity being puked out from the upper low digging south along the west coast of Canada and riding overtop the de-amplifying ridge as it shifts eastward. Also some energy ejecting eastward from the SW. Wouldn't it be something if there was enough interaction as those pieces head east to make something happen before the window we are focused on lol.

It had the strongest signal among the ens runs at 0z.

The Latest Ensemble runs look good for mid month. I posted the GEFS earlier. Here is the Canadian-

Snippet from WPC Forecast Discussion- With the passage of the Arctic front, snow squalls are possible from MI and western NY to OH, PA, and WV starting late Thursday night and continuing through the day on Friday. Some of the stronger showers and squalls are looking increasingly likely to spill over the central Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic later in the afternoon, possibly impacting the evening commute on Friday. Upslope snow in the central Appalachians should maximize Friday afternoon/evening as the front moves through.

Then Will says we should be using the ensembles more lol. Uh, yeah been saying and doing it forever lol. Only post I made this morning was 'big picture' ens mean. Good to see Will post that though. Reborn!

Yep. Facilitated by those who race to be the first to post op run snow maps at range, then if the next run or 2 don't have it the posts become its a dud or a disaster. Gets the weenie pendulum swinging.