CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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A few more ticks north and much of the area will be in legit 1-2" range!
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End of next week also looks intriguing at h5 but as it looks now on the ens mean we would need a piece of NS energy to dig further south to get us a little storm.
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We got pieces in place on the ens run. Why sweat the run to run details on the op runs at this range- its literally going to change every run. Just no way to know how the NS vorticity will interact- but we have some digging energy taking the southern route to work with.
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You doing good friend. I used to be the one to bore everyone with all the 500 mb vorticity interactions/analysis. Now you can do it lol. It's largely what dictates our sensible weather at the surface as you are discovering. Good stuff!
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Strong upper jet streak induces stretched/elongated vorticity ribbon underneath. Not going to get a widespread or major event with this, but rather a possible narrow corridor of decent lift that could produce a light to moderate event. Hard to say exactly where that might occur at this juncture but it appears it will be somewhere in our region or maybe even a bit south. Given the h5 look on the Euro it *should* be cold enough for a bit of snow.
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Very impressed with your posts lately.
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I tend to cuss when I drink bourbon. Feels good.
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Jinx bullshit is annoying.. bullshit. This is a fucking science based forum ffs. Get a grip.
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33 as precip approaches. Looks like a soaker here today.
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My one and only obs just for the hell of it. 29/23 at 730 Wont be a single flake or sleet pellet here by the time precip starts. On the plus side, might see an inch of rain! Good luck to the NW folks at elevation. An inch or 2 would be a win with this setup imo. Not bad for the very beginning of Dec, esp lately..
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212 yds rushing so far for the Bills. Calling Todd Monken..Paying attention you dumb fuck?
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Almost feel bad for Rodgers. (almost). So beat up and pathetic looking.
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Glad I have no interest and paying no attention lol.
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In general Ninos with blocking have a less active NS, but not always. We saw a case recently where the blocking was underwhelming in reality, despite what the models persistently advertised.
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Never tried that one. I need to.
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Down to 28 here. Fire going.
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Stop whining about the NS lol. In winter a busy NS is the norm more times than not, unless we are torching, then who cares. A quiet NS in a 'good winter pattern' usually only happens when we have a legit persistent NA blocking pattern like 2009-10, in something like the ideal Modoki Nino with a legit southern jet. Doesnt happen that often.
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Nice to see the advertised Scandi ridge building into the NAO space continues to be persistent. A key feature if its real.
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I'll take it
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h5 looks radical.
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Euro has a less defined/consolidated shortwave than the GFS/Canadian, so its weaker/a bit offshore with the low track as it approaches our latitude. Given the synoptics(HP retreating) that could work for a modest accumulation for central MD. Who knows if it has the right idea.
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These seem to be the 2 potential windows to watch via recent guidance- I still like the 10-11th, but the 6th is starting to look intriguing, with some potential for significant southern energy to eject northeastward from the SW, and a nice NA look. A lot of NS energy associated with the TPV lobe though as advertised, and we know how that goes with timing(phasing vs crushing).
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Yeah that's not happening, esp from the Fall line east. If I am up early enough maybe I will see a few mangled flakes before it turns to rain.
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Same here
