CAPE

Just keep him out of the main threads. Panic room only access lol.

I think I'm gonna. So much bullshit. And Randy might be interested to see it.

He didn't like my post lol. He messaged me...I might post it in banter.

Your 'analysis' is a broad generalization and is whiny and lazy as fuck.

Storm after the storm potential on the EPS with energy ejecting east from the southwest and the look up top on the Atlantic side remaining largely intact.

It has been suggestive of a wave or 2 between the 9th and 12th on recent runs. There is some decent vorticity being puked out from the upper low digging south along the west coast of Canada and riding overtop the de-amplifying ridge as it shifts eastward. Also some energy ejecting eastward from the SW. Wouldn't it be something if there was enough interaction as those pieces head east to make something happen before the window we are focused on lol.

It had the strongest signal among the ens runs at 0z.

The Latest Ensemble runs look good for mid month. I posted the GEFS earlier. Here is the Canadian-

Snippet from WPC Forecast Discussion- With the passage of the Arctic front, snow squalls are possible from MI and western NY to OH, PA, and WV starting late Thursday night and continuing through the day on Friday. Some of the stronger showers and squalls are looking increasingly likely to spill over the central Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic later in the afternoon, possibly impacting the evening commute on Friday. Upslope snow in the central Appalachians should maximize Friday afternoon/evening as the front moves through.

Then Will says we should be using the ensembles more lol. Uh, yeah been saying and doing it forever lol. Only post I made this morning was 'big picture' ens mean. Good to see Will post that though. Reborn!

Yep. Facilitated by those who race to be the first to post op run snow maps at range, then if the next run or 2 don't have it the posts become its a dud or a disaster. Gets the weenie pendulum swinging.

Mount Holly mentioned all of this in their AFD, plus snow squall potential. This could actually be fun. We shall see.

Its unexplainable unless you were there, or could see the posts. Unfortunately they seem to be lost in the abyss. Funny AF tho.

Yeah It was kinda sad, because he was such a good poster when he stuck to weather. Oh well.

That precipitated the all time epic Jebman rant, and made him a MA subforum legend lol. Ah, good times.

Currently 33 after a high of 37 Bring me my dusting. Refresh my bourbon. Oh shit, I'll have to do that.

Cloud shrouded sunset. Still a deep winter look despite temps in the mid 30s with some meltage today. Hopefully a refresher is on the way.

He was funny as fuck. I loved how he trolled a certain poster.

He chose not to participate here anymore, during COVID. Nothing else to add to that, and not the place.

Mid Feb of 2015 comes to mind. That kicked off our actual winter, which was crap to that point, and epic for 3 weeks after.

That seems a little high even for UHI DC.

Looking more cloudy out there all of a sudden. Current temp and high for the day is 37.

Mount Holly Snippet- KEY MESSAGE 3...An arctic cold front will bring a shot of snow (and potential snow squalls) on Friday Night, with strong winds expected in the wake of the front on Saturday. A clipper system will slide by to the north on Friday Night, dragging a cold front through our area. This front looks to pack a bit of a punch as it moves through. Medium range guidance continues to show a shot of snow as it moves through. Global deterministic guidance is not the best at depicting snow squalls, however from a pattern recognition standpoint, it would be not be a surprise for some snow squalls to develop as the arctic front moves through. Better confidence for the snow-squall potential will come once we get in range of the CAMs, but a quick inch or two of snowfall is certainly possible on Friday evening/Friday Night along with the usual impacts from snow squalls (gusty winds, reduced visibility, brief heavy snow).