CAPE

Huntley isnt a great thrower, but he can at least run the offense more like Lamar. Do the RPO.

He is fucking terrible. But Harbaugh will stick with him.

Nothing but drizzle here so far. That area of showers to my southeast isnt making much progress northwestward. Any showers will probably come with the wrap around on the backside of the low as it moves north.

Dryness aside in some parts, hard to beat how nice and coolish its been from the latter half of August forward. Relatively few above avg temp and high dewpoint days in that stretch.

Terps have the Raven's disease. Blowing leads late and losing. 2 weeks in a row.

There is no digital snow potential with this one lol. Why are you here trolling? I have to admit I did like your reply to Howard's post.

We like to see it, but rooting for it won't make it happen. The general flow in a Nina with overall lack of an extended southern jet make it a pretty difficult outcome.

lol that would be like 2"+ here.

From latest Mount Holly AFD- Latest deterministic model guidance has trended weaker and east with a more elongated low pressure system compared to previous forecasts. What this means is that the QPF forecast has been lowered. Even with this current trend, coastal impacts are still expected to be significant. Also, with these run to run variations of the deterministic guidance, it is important to look at the ensembles guidance which does still have both outcomes of a stronger and more west placement of the low along with the weaker eastward low. Due to this spread and uncertainty, not too many changes were made overall aside from the QPF forecast. Guidance will likely continue to struggle and vary from run to run with this system until it actually forms a well defined low pressure center sometime today or tonight. This is pretty notable on the 0z EPS, resulting in decent precip extending further inland on the mean.

HH GFS looks like a slight tick east so far.

It's always complicated. We just can't know...yet

Mount Holly still sticking with the general idea of a high impact event. This little snippet is semi-interesting from their AFD- Guidance will likely continue to struggle and vary from run to run with this system until it actually forms a well defined low pressure center sometime Saturday or Saturday night. All previously issued watches remain in effect at this time due to the continued uncertainty in timing, severity, and inland extent of impacts.

There are differences in timing/location of the northern stream vorticity digging southeastward from the GLs. GFS involves it more and sooner than the Euro. Seems to capture the southern piece of energy, encouraging a more consolidated surface low with a track more westward.

lol I only 'care' so I don't have to water the new grass. Mostly just something to track. For some it has been quite dry for the last couple months so I get wanting a soaking rain.

This area is actually in decent shape. Had slightly above avg rain last month and around 0.4" from the event yesterday. It's places further west that really need the rain.

Yeah they generally aren't good. Best case outside of a fluke is an avg snowfall winter.

Pretty bullish considering he is predicting an ENSO neutral winter. Plenty of uncertainty wrt snowfall for the greater DC area in La Nada winters, but pretty sure historically it tends be average to below average without digging into it further.

Sure it can change............................... But its only a "joke" because it doesn't depict what you want to see in your yard. That's why you made this whiny post.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Forecast for Sunday-Monday

WPC QPF through day 5-

Latest Mount Holly AFD- A potentially significant coastal storm looks to be on the horizon Sunday through Monday. However, the forecast remains uncertain and significant changes could come as we get closer. Main impacts will be tidal flooding, strong marine winds (and potentially on land if the system tracks closer), and heavy rain. Things start to go downhill on Saturday Night as a coastal low approaches from the south. Rain is expected to overspread the region, with the heaviest near the coastline, while areas in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos/northern NJ likely stay dry through the night. Winds begin to increase, especially over the water and along the immediate coastline with gusts getting near 40 MPH by daybreak. Sunday through Monday will be when our area likely experiences the brunt of the impacts from the coastal storm. If the current track holds and the coastal storm does end up just offshore, strong winds are expected, upwards of 45-55 MPH+ on the coast Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night, with the potential for these strong winds to continue well into Monday. Gusts upward of 30-40 MPH will extend several miles inland to about the I-95 corridor. In addition to the wind, heavy rain is expected, and a SLIGHT (2/4) Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in place for the I-95 corridor and points south and east. We are not fully in the QPF period yet, but some of the WPC longer-range rainfall products suggest 2-4+ inches of rain within the SLGT risk, with locally higher amounts certainly possible. NBM Probability of 2+ inches of rain for New Jersey and Delmarva was about 30-40%, which is actually quite high being 5-6 days out.

That sucks man. This shit is so ridiculous and shouldn't be happening. Hopefully you are back to work soon! I liked the post because you had a fun time and that is super cool.

0.36" A bit underwhelming but better than nothing. Wont have to water the new grass/clover for a couple days

Hamilton and Gilman were teammates at ND in 2019.