CAPE

Snippet form Mount Holly mid afternoon AFD- KEY MESSAGE 3...Latest model guidance suggests the region will be on the northwestern edge of a potential storm forecast to be just offshore on Sunday and Monday. Model guidance continues to show low pressure moving off the Southeast or Mid-atlantic coast Saturday night, and then deepening a few hundred miles off the Mid-atlantic coast Sunday into early Monday before moving eastward on Monday and out to sea. There is a large amount of uncertainty as to how impactful this system will be to the local region with some guidance suggesting light to moderate snowfall in the New Jersey- Philadelphia metro-Delaware regions, and other guidance showing no snow at all over the entire local area. That being said, as it stands currently, areas south and east of Philadelphia still have the greatest potential for impacts from any snow and wind Sunday afternoon into early Monday. In the wake of this storm, a much colder air mass looks to settle into our region early next week. High temperatures probably do not get out of the 30s both Monday and Tuesday

If I managed to get a half a foot I would be delighted, and satisfied with winter. That would put me right about climo avg. I wouldn't kick more out of bed tho lol.

It wont have this run assimilated yet. And it seems to like the GFS.

Dynamic cooling! Rates!!

Pretty, but when is the last time SBY got 30" from one event? I think we both know the answer to that lol.

If this works out I'm taking credit for insisting on a thread just in time for HH. If it fucks up its @Maestrobjwa's fault

Eastern VA gonna get destroyed

Slight differences but better- SLP should be a bit further north.

Yeah fix that @Maestrobjwa

That wasn't mockery. Don't be so sensitive lol.

Who knows? We rely on model simulations that are volatile 4-5 days out. Make a thread. You are a musician right? Be creative.

You might be in trouble lad. No excuses. Start a thread. I hate the damn jinx thing, but nothing to lose at this point for those who do believe in such crap.

Anyone notice the APG boom event happening? I assume that's what it is. Very noticeable here. Clouds and a temp inversion causing sound waves to reflect back and forth between the inversion and the ground and propagating.

Whose storm is this anyway?

It's time to start a thread. Reverse jinx and shit.

You should line this up with the member MSLP panels. Looks like around 20 indicate little to no impact from the coastal low. Combo of weak/too far offshore.

Still discombobulated but it kinda works out this run. I doubt this is the final outcome(hopefully not) Looks like interior areas get snow associated with the lead shortwave as it sharpens- Eastern areas get snow resulting from the phase and the developing offshore coastal low. Precarious.

That usually ends up working out for places further north.

The vort max interactions are just a bit too discombobulated, and phase a little too late thus offshore low development. GFS is the still the closest to a good outcome among the deterministic guidance, and nothing is etched in stone at this juncture.

For some reason I'm not too worried about a complete whiff to the South or east. Temps are the main problem so we need a strong low with dynamics. A weak pos wont do it. Something about this looks different to me compared to recent fails.. maybe I am imagining things. Anyone want to take a stab at it? Other than the +PNA.

Broken fucking record. @stormtracker This turd needs to be limited to the Panic Room