CAPE

Mind if I borrow your profile pic?

I can see the gap heading my way lol. Ofc the way these storms fire and die then fire again eleswhere, hard to predict based on radar.

Its gonna be just south of me most likely. There is a front that is slowly sinking southward. The stuff that fired up earlier today(and went severe) was to my NE and also SE may have been enhanced by (DE) bay breezes/ ocean breezes. That's the problem with this setup and why many won't see anything significant- there is no large scale forcing mechanism and wind shear is pretty meager. The storms are more pulsed and difficult to sustain.

There is no flash flood watch.. it's a flood watch. There is the potential for flash flooding to occur, and if it does, then a flash flood warning would be put into effect.

Send some over this way(of both). Nothing but a patch of drizzle here so far.

I believe a flood watch is it. If flash flooding materializes(or imminent), then a 'flash flood warning' is put into effect.

Maybe read the discussion. The risk for heavy rain is in an urban area. Storm motions are slow. Doesn't have anything to do with lack of rainfall over last day or longer. IMPACTS...Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

You have never been a severe disappointment, because there never were any expectations. But we do have to put up with your drivel. That kid is the future on this forum. He is learning, enthusiastic, and his posts have improved significantly. Conversely, one wants to hear your tired ass shit.

He weenies all posts he doesn't agree with(mostly out of ignorance). A reflection on him not being capable of logically debating a point.. apply weenie and run away lol. But not worth it dude. Bring it up, and he will just claim you are triggered by it.

I can't anymore lol. Like trying to reason with a petulant child. Good luck. I truly hope you are willing to try and improve enough as to not be a continuous annoyance here.

By himself.

Dude you got nothing. You keep coming back to that which is nonsensical, and you still don't get the point of me mentioning that. Fuck man, take a break.

That's not what they said. You aren't very bright. "a tenth of an inch or less except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms" is standard wording when storms are expected to be isolated to scattered, but not widespread- as in a consolidated QLCS line. Models were indeed depicting the former. Try again? Maybe take the L and move on. Then try harder to become a decent poster.

LOL You claimed that pro Mets working at a NWS forecast office must be smoking crack based on correctly updating their previous forecast, because YOU didn't agree. You. who have zero credentials(nor ability as a hobbyist) to properly interpret model guidance. Keep digging dude.

I have a 'rating', but I'll keep it to myself.

lol that was a dig at you. There's something lacking when a poster is known only for applying excessive weenie emotes. I did suggest maybe try harder to become more productive. Again, carry on.

I wonder what the cause of that could be

That's not how it went down. Nothing here about a weenie. You got annoyed(bent out of shape) because you said something ridiculous and I called you out. IDGAF about an emote. You do the weenie thing constantly though, because- you butthurt boy. Carry on being a shit poster.

Dude you weenie everyone who doesn't agree with your takes (usually wrong) in every thread. It's YOU getting butthurt. Carry on being an annoying crappy poster who contributes nothing of substance.

You are in here acting like a child because you don't like the observations of others. It's pretty clear based on guidance and actual forecasts that this will not be a widespread rainfall for the region that will have a meaningful impact on the drought. Some locales have/will get lucky with some rain. Disagree?

Best chance of heavier showers developing is probably this afternoon into the evening with these weak upper level disturbances moving through and coinciding with peak heating.

Mr. weenie all posts is gonna die on this ant hill

0.00 here Mount Holly realized their forecast yesterday morning was waaay too bullish given the weakly forced environment for this 'event'. Decent PWAT and some afternoon heating along with the weak front moving through is pretty much all this has going for it. There will probably be some localized heavy showers and maybe a rumble of thunder in a few spots but many locations will see little to nothing.

You are a generally horrible poster. Try and work on that. I wish you luck.

Mount Holly has really struggled forecasting reasonable rain totals lately. They were too aggressive on Tuesday, and this morning the forecast here was for 1-1.5" total through tomorrow. Given we are in an extreme drought you would think they would be more conservative. Updated forecast is a tenth or less for today, tonight, and tomorrow, 'except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms'. That's what it should have been in the first place, given the modeled scattered nature of the rain, and that drought begets drought (positive feedback loop).