CAPE

lol that would be like 2"+ here.

From latest Mount Holly AFD- Latest deterministic model guidance has trended weaker and east with a more elongated low pressure system compared to previous forecasts. What this means is that the QPF forecast has been lowered. Even with this current trend, coastal impacts are still expected to be significant. Also, with these run to run variations of the deterministic guidance, it is important to look at the ensembles guidance which does still have both outcomes of a stronger and more west placement of the low along with the weaker eastward low. Due to this spread and uncertainty, not too many changes were made overall aside from the QPF forecast. Guidance will likely continue to struggle and vary from run to run with this system until it actually forms a well defined low pressure center sometime today or tonight. This is pretty notable on the 0z EPS, resulting in decent precip extending further inland on the mean.

HH GFS looks like a slight tick east so far.

It's always complicated. We just can't know...yet

Mount Holly still sticking with the general idea of a high impact event. This little snippet is semi-interesting from their AFD- Guidance will likely continue to struggle and vary from run to run with this system until it actually forms a well defined low pressure center sometime Saturday or Saturday night. All previously issued watches remain in effect at this time due to the continued uncertainty in timing, severity, and inland extent of impacts.

There are differences in timing/location of the northern stream vorticity digging southeastward from the GLs. GFS involves it more and sooner than the Euro. Seems to capture the southern piece of energy, encouraging a more consolidated surface low with a track more westward.

lol I only 'care' so I don't have to water the new grass. Mostly just something to track. For some it has been quite dry for the last couple months so I get wanting a soaking rain.

This area is actually in decent shape. Had slightly above avg rain last month and around 0.4" from the event yesterday. It's places further west that really need the rain.

Yeah they generally aren't good. Best case outside of a fluke is an avg snowfall winter.

Pretty bullish considering he is predicting an ENSO neutral winter. Plenty of uncertainty wrt snowfall for the greater DC area in La Nada winters, but pretty sure historically it tends be average to below average without digging into it further.

Sure it can change............................... But its only a "joke" because it doesn't depict what you want to see in your yard. That's why you made this whiny post.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Forecast for Sunday-Monday

WPC QPF through day 5-

Latest Mount Holly AFD- A potentially significant coastal storm looks to be on the horizon Sunday through Monday. However, the forecast remains uncertain and significant changes could come as we get closer. Main impacts will be tidal flooding, strong marine winds (and potentially on land if the system tracks closer), and heavy rain. Things start to go downhill on Saturday Night as a coastal low approaches from the south. Rain is expected to overspread the region, with the heaviest near the coastline, while areas in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos/northern NJ likely stay dry through the night. Winds begin to increase, especially over the water and along the immediate coastline with gusts getting near 40 MPH by daybreak. Sunday through Monday will be when our area likely experiences the brunt of the impacts from the coastal storm. If the current track holds and the coastal storm does end up just offshore, strong winds are expected, upwards of 45-55 MPH+ on the coast Sunday afternoon and Sunday Night, with the potential for these strong winds to continue well into Monday. Gusts upward of 30-40 MPH will extend several miles inland to about the I-95 corridor. In addition to the wind, heavy rain is expected, and a SLIGHT (2/4) Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in place for the I-95 corridor and points south and east. We are not fully in the QPF period yet, but some of the WPC longer-range rainfall products suggest 2-4+ inches of rain within the SLGT risk, with locally higher amounts certainly possible. NBM Probability of 2+ inches of rain for New Jersey and Delmarva was about 30-40%, which is actually quite high being 5-6 days out.

That sucks man. This shit is so ridiculous and shouldn't be happening. Hopefully you are back to work soon! I liked the post because you had a fun time and that is super cool.

0.36" A bit underwhelming but better than nothing. Wont have to water the new grass/clover for a couple days

Hamilton and Gilman were teammates at ND in 2019.

Probably a good move. Oweh has been playing like ass after having his first decent season, and would be a free agent after this season. 8 million dollar savings against the cap. DeCosta probably not done- trying to make this sorry ass team better now, but more so planning for the future. Mark Andrews is gonna be next. Can't realistically keep both TEs, and he and Likely are both unrestricted FAs after this season.

Literally no one. Which is why Bisciotti needs to put friendship aside and make the best decision for this team now and going forward.

Holy effing shit. This dude really needs to go. Delusional. There is zero want to or effort on this team right now, esp the defense. He has lost the team. Get him the hell out.

At least all the talk of Lamar not being able to get over the hump and win the big game to get to a SB wont be an issue lol. Lets see if Allen can do it. All the pressure on him now. The season will truly be a fail if Harbaugh is still the coach going into next year.

Starks kinda looking like a bust, but with such a bad defensive "scheme", don't want to be too quick to pass judgment. Whatever the reasons, this dude has been absolutely awful to this point.

Just get the key players out at this point. Why get Flowers hurt in a meaningless rout? This is all the proof you need that Harbaugh must go. He sticks with Orr who has no clue, and he cant prepare his team to even be competitive. Embarrassing.

Might as well put Huntley in for the second half. A least he can run a bit. But ofc Harbaugh wont do it. If the offense cant sustain some drives this defense is gonna give up 50 today.