CAPE
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I made a post further up in the thread with h5 images showing how imperfect the pattern was leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm, including a SE ridge which became more of a WAR that linked up with a transient -NAO. It snowed a day later. That was the famous 'shit the blinds' pattern with no end in sight, yet I identified a way out and a specific threat window 10 days or so in advance. I got lucky and it actually worked out.
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Snow chances probably aren't very high(although this is literally the only period the model gives us snow). Nor have the chances of snow been high with the better look up top, legit cold in place and zero SE ridge. Its a crapshoot man. I bet we get some snow in the next 15 days, because that's how random this all is, models aren't very reliable at range, and ofc, the WDI!
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The boom for this was like a half inch lol
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This was never a super serious thread lol. Ji needs a Xanax.
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This is a pretty flat ass ridge- Look at the trough in the SW.. follow the height lines and ignore the colors.. Verbatim we get snow (as far south as S VA) during this period.
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I got the GFS and the Euro ens giving me snow. This is serious stuff here.
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A potential widespread coating of snow is no joke. Not even a troll job. You are losing it lol. Pull the plug!
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ofc you are- over a single deterministic run 318 hours out. See ya next winter!
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We ARE back BABY!
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I'll hug the GFS to bring my third dusting in 4 days lol
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We back? Dead?
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Cloudy cold day. Temp 29 at 1pm
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True but it does have a more impressive -NAO and suppresses the SER more than the GEFS.
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We can definitely snow with this look. EPO ridge amps even more beyond this. GEFS is not bad in this window either but the SER is not quite as suppressed.
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The GEPS is actually colder than the GEFS-almost all of the country has below avg temps after the 12th verbatim, but coldest out west and more like slightly below in the east. It is advertising a stronger -NAO, which seems to be the primary difference between it and the GEFS and why its colder, but also ends up with a more amped EPO ridge so probably a bit more cross Polar flow.
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Euro went from this- to this-
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Yeah I cant think of a single snowstorm that occurred after mid Feb.
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Like nearly everything that occurs in the atmosphere, what causes a block is complex and there isnt a singe cause. Google this- "what causes an atmospheric block" I think it will help you get a better understanding.
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Maybe google atmospheric block- there are several types. A NAO block is a Rex- poleward ridge/ equatorward trough. It forces the flow to buckle southward and that places the baroclinic boundary further south- meaning storms develop/ take a more southward track.
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A 'block' = Atmospheric block= features(ridge/trough combo) remain in place for a significant period instead of just moving along in the flow.
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I answered it above. A block means a ridge/trough combo(eg rex block) that remains stationary/quasi stationary. A transient dipole does nothing to help our cause unless literally everything is timed perfectly.
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To me its just wonky and not a useful block. Not really a block at all. That's a snapshot but everything is in motion. That trough over the Canadian Maritimes becomes a ridge a day later. That's probably what's meant by 'open Atlantic'. Shit be moving- no block in the flow.
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Heading up to NW PA?
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Still some time...maybe we can squeeze an inch or so out of this before we are forced into hibernation for 2 weeks.
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It isnt much lol. Snow is snow tho.
