CAPE

Yeah baby

The interplay between the shortwaves is off and what we end up with is more of a broad lobe with no real sharpness to it. What I do like is the surface set up- HP to the NW and LP to the NE. Fuck the GL Low bullshit. That's a fail almost always for our region.

Like I said yesterday, I think there is a pretty good chance for a winter storm mid month period. I didn't pore over successive ens runs like I did yesterday, but just looking at h5 on the latest runs it still looks reasonable.

What's going to show up over the next 3 days is a significant warming trend. Looking forward to it. Need a break from the cold with not much to show for it.

Another cold cloudy day with a high temp around freezing. We are wasting a lot of cold with no significant snow lol.

Ofc. But Ralph hailed me about it lol.

I don't know what this even means lol. Btw a SWFE involves overrunning with cold HP anchored to the north. This ain't that.

This setup would end up mostly rain for the majority of our region.

Well, not exactly. What I want is a shortwave riding the thermal boundary with cold HP to the NW pressing southward, not a goddamn 998 LP over the Great lakes lol. This-

All 3 models have moved away from a SER at d15/16. That's why I don't get why anyone worries about the pattern depiction that far out, esp given how this has gone for months now. Any suggestion of protracted warmth is muted/ doesnt materialize.

Close to the same timeframe- on the GEFS ens mean it looks like a trailing wave with the previous lakes cutter moving towards the 50-50 region and upper ridging over Baffin- not an actual block, more transient in nature but can still work with timing. Verbatim there is snow for the region on the mean here.

Mid month is the window. See my previous post(or the one before that i cant remember lol). I didn't look at the AI tools, just the conventional Ens guidance. Signal is there on all 3. No guarantees ofc.

Believe it or not.. its not all about how much more snow he gets than the rest of us lol

Yeah well that's a big part of his other interests.

This place is a riot. Goddamn.

LOL He has other interests, as all of us should/do have.

Nothing before that? LOL

We live in the Mid Atlantic. "Workable" patterns are what we have to work with, if we are lucky. Sometimes they yield something, other times not so much. With certainty, we have HH everyday though.

I'm not sure why you worry so much about the very end of the ens runs. You know this is subject to larger errors. I have done some analysis of each of the big 3(GEFS/EPS/GEPS) over multiple consecutive runs(fwiw lol), and I think there is a decent shot at a snow event mid month, +/- a day or so. Building EPO ridge, SW trough undercutting the western ridge with energy ejecting eastward, and a pretty solid look in the NA. All models to varying degrees indicate significant precip in the Tennessee valley with height lines oriented SW to NE. Ofc it might not work out but there is potential in that window on guidance. If it torches beyond that, so be it. As we know, these modeled warmups in the LR have been perpetually pushed back for months lol.

Sun finally out and temp up to 32. Not going to get close to the forecast high of 38 lol

I made a post further up in the thread with h5 images showing how imperfect the pattern was leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm, including a SE ridge which became more of a WAR that linked up with a transient -NAO. It snowed a day later. That was the famous 'shit the blinds' pattern with no end in sight, yet I identified a way out and a specific threat window 10 days or so in advance. I got lucky and it actually worked out.

Snow chances probably aren't very high(although this is literally the only period the model gives us snow). Nor have the chances of snow been high with the better look up top, legit cold in place and zero SE ridge. Its a crapshoot man. I bet we get some snow in the next 15 days, because that's how random this all is, models aren't very reliable at range, and ofc, the WDI!

The boom for this was like a half inch lol

This was never a super serious thread lol. Ji needs a Xanax.

This is a pretty flat ass ridge- Look at the trough in the SW.. follow the height lines and ignore the colors.. Verbatim we get snow (as far south as S VA) during this period.