CAPE
-
Posts
35,086 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by CAPE
-
The period around NYE could end up cold and dry, but at least it looks cold, and there has been pretty persistent indications on guidance that there could be a storm during this timeframe. H5 looks favorable. Lets just wait and see.
-
Who is canceling winter? Name names. C'mon this is banter.
-
Prime climo is a few weeks away.
-
The march towards summer begins after today. Sun angle season before ya know it.
-
Yeah that continues to be the period to keep an eye on. Various op runs have had a snow/mix event for the MA/NE the last few days. Weakish signal on the Ens runs.
-
All the latest extended products suggest that may be the case. Does it mean much? Probably not. The previous runs all suggested a -EPO developing by mid Jan.
-
LOL Stupid to call them the weeklies anymore. They should be called the dailies. Or the Euro extended, which they really are when you look at an actual map(ECMWF Ext. Ens). They haven't been a weekly product for quite awhile.
-
Upper 50s-low 60s on the GFS. Euro low to mid 60s. CMC keeps us in the low 40s lol.
-
lol Christmas shopping. I do that sitting on my arse in front of the computer with a bourbon.
-
Nothing to talk about until the 12z model suite comes out.
-
6z GEFS has the same general idea- energy ejecting eastward with confluence under the block.
-
6z GFS does deliver some frozen/freezing precip for end of the month period but who cares about the details this far out- keep advertising NA looks like this with a bowling ball rolling across the south and we stay interested.
-
Still cant rule out the potential for something towards the end of the month/early Jan with looks like this continuing to pop up on guidance. The wave doesnt dig quite enough this run, but even with a hostile Pacific, a legit NAO block can change the game and give us a shot. Just cant know yet lol.
-
Latest Euro weeklies continue to depict a shift from -WPO/+EPO to a -EPO heading into mid Jan, with a pretty decent NA look. The pattern becomes pretty respectable prior to that. Western US trough not as deep with a flattish PNA ridge developing by the 10th.
-
Snowman19 lol That thread is a train wreck. Gloom and doom. No recovering from this upcoming pattern! Days getting longer in 2 days. Summer is coming!!
-
Looks like low 50s for Xmas. Probably 60 or so the day after. Is what it is. Not hating it tbh.
-
This what we need, and exactly what Elias needed to do. STOP coveting every damn prospect and start dealing to make this team better now. The window is going to close fast with some of the core talent approaching FA, and Boros being the agent for Henderson and Westburg. Holiday too but that's further down the road.
-
Judah so smart. Although I'm not sure why I should care so much what's going on at 10 mb when the AO is trending slightly negative at this point on the same model.
-
It's called drivel.
-
Ended up with 1.34" Might add to it with the passing showers over the next few hours. Thunder would be cool.
-
Overperformer here. 1.2" Looks like it should be ending soon.
-
Heavy rain here this morning. 0.92" and still going.
-
All the extended products have been indicating a transition to a -EPO going forward into mid Jan, with a southward displaced TPV. We have seen this look pretty often in recent winters and it brings the cold, then all we need is some luck with a wave riding the thermal boundary. This pattern has produced several moderate snowstorms in our region. I'll take it.
-
My WAG is ENSO neutral winters in general don't feature a predictable influence on the Pac side so the pattern is less predictable than in a Nina or Nino, and other factors tend to dictate the general pattern. I'm guessing if there isnt a favorable AO/NAO, winters tend to be milder overall and more variable wrt snowfall, and there is increased chances of little to no snow. I think I recall PSU saying Enso Neutral brings an increased chance of a persistent SER.
-
As advertised the Pacific is hostile on the means for the foreseeable future. We shall see if that verifies. It might not. If it does, what can 'save us' from a shit the blinds period to some degree is a favorable NA. In general the guidance indicates we may get that, but we just cant know yet. Just roll with it man. Keep monitoring. Have fun with it. This isn't life and death shit lol.
