I wouldn't give up yet. As we all know sometimes models struggle with these 'oddly' evolving events, only to bring them back later. As I posted, the 18z GEFS looks pretty much the same as 12z. Not much different at all.
Pretty persistent signal across guidance over the last few runs for this type of setup. Big storm potential with significant moisture overrunning cold HP.
My storm sucks on this run. There is a bit of a kicker problem- wait scratch that- that was the Ravens.. its a wave spacing issue.
Timing/interplay between the shortwaves is not good. A phase in the Gulf of Maine wont work lol.
Much of how this turns out appears to lie with the inverted trough feature and its location. 12z Euro has it further north than 6z. Would be nice if this was a simple UL low pass with a widespread few inches like you mentioned a couple days ago.
Well that was the point of my post(the one you weenied lol). As is, the surface low develops a bit too late and gets going off the coast at our latitude. Great for those folks to our northeast.