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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Snow melts efficiently here regardless, because most of the time we are above freezing a day or 2 after. If we get a 6" snowstorm in early March and temps are in the mid 20s with sun the next day, a good amount of it will still be otg.
  2. CAPE
    For the LR snowfall freaks
  3. CAPE
    You will get your 6"+
  4. CAPE
    Workin on it, but just remember, if the storm is a coastal scraper I'm good with it. Also.. Why does this weekend 'hurt'? Gonna be the best storm you have seen in years. Get over the fact that it won't be all snow.
  5. CAPE
    Wrong thread
  6. CAPE
    The snow part depends on how hot and heavy it is at the beginning. We need it to come in and go moderate to heavy pretty quickly, and for the snow to last several hours. That's our chance to pick up 5 or 6" before the sleet takes over. As for freezing rain, it looks like there is a decent chance for you and I to pick up a quarter inch of ice, then maybe ending as plain rain with a temp of 33-34. Closer to the coast there will be a a longer duration of rain, and little to no zr.
  7. CAPE
    And that is largely a function of h5 shortwave interactions. As I have said- say it with me- all our hopes and dreams are determined by random wave interactions and timing.
  8. CAPE
    More phasing/amplification allows the primary low to track further north with a later transfer to the coast- and the developing coastal low is tucked. Earlier runs were less amped/ w flatter flow, a weaker primary with earlier transfer further south and the coastal low tracking ENE off the coast- this setup spares the area from too much warm air moving in aloft and at the surface in the vicinity of the coastal low. The warming is temporary as the colder air comes back in afterwards.
  9. CAPE
    Its been showing up on the GEFS and EPS the last few runs too. Looks like a 1-2, maybe 3" potential on the op runs. A difference in location between the GFS and the Euro(further sw/south).
  10. CAPE
    10 is the current temp and the low.
  11. CAPE
    Low is offshore on the EPS but still some precip(snow) for the region on the mean. Overall the ridge position/orientation needs to change some from what is currently depicted so the trough/shortwave energy can dig and become neutral a little further west.
  12. CAPE
    Lovely to wake up and read this from Mt Holly The narrow corridor of highest ice accumulations has shifted southeast, now focused over South Jersey, central Delaware, and the Eastern Shore of Maryland.
  13. CAPE
    This is as warm as it gets, and not much different from other guidance. Yes probably some plain rain for a few hours for extreme southeastern parts of the region.
  14. CAPE
    HRRR look good. Primative grunt.
  15. CAPE
    33 heading to 10 Just started a fire to keep the heat pump from running.
  16. CAPE
    No. There is no "folding". That's simpleton talk.
  17. CAPE
    Your area did pretty well didn't it?
  18. CAPE
    Most of the precip ends up just offshore, but this h5 look is a beauty on the 12z EPS.
  19. CAPE
    What, this?
  20. CAPE
    I made a post about the favorable h5 look earlier in the week, and it hasn't really changed imo. I still think there is big dog potential. ( i actually hate that phrase) The ens runs have shown a signal for a storm, but not consistently yet.
  21. CAPE
    6-12 is the forecast for here. I will expect closer to 6, but if precip comes in hot and heavy as some runs have shown, upside might be better.
  22. CAPE
    Looks pretty much the same to me, but since the highest temp here is 28 vs 29 on the previous run, its souther!
  23. CAPE
    HH GFS is the same outside of a bit of noise between runs. Actually slightly colder here as the coastal low makes its closest pass.
  24. CAPE
    Its gonna snow. Its going to be the most we have seen this winter. Yes it will sleet and be icy too, and for some rain a bit, but everyone will see several inches. Quit moaning if you expected a foot and it isnt realistic anymore. Enjoy what you get- it isnt going anywhere for a week- and we have the potential big dog coastal storm to track for next weekend. The tracking never ends when we have a favorable pattern. Rather have a shit the blinds pattern with nothing?
  25. CAPE
    We have zero control of the outcome of any of this. Fun shit eh?
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