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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. Agree. Want some interaction but not a full phase- keep the flow flattish and cold.
  2. Perfect track so all in the region stays frozen- with just a bit of sleet around SBY. Ofc it probably wont work out this way.
  3. GEFS in good agreement with the op if you use 10:1 like the ens. To be expected at this range.
  4. Sadly, the GFS is my model of choice for this event
  5. Gotta ride with the GFS and the AIs for now. I wouldn't expect the track to adjust back southward in future runs. North trends at close range seem to occur more often.
  6. Blue? So 0.5-0.7 is a whiff? Damn
  7. I only see 2, and several more that have light precip on the northern edge- and those mostly have a tight gradient, ie close to good.
  8. That's a good track on the mean. Doesn't erode the cold from flow off the ocean.
  9. I'm good with 12z GEFS precip and snowfall picture.
  10. I find the h5 picture to be fascinating. Love me some vorticity.
  11. I get all that lol. It was just a rhetorical question. You know I look at h5 first and probably analyze it more than anyone.
  12. What happened to the juiced up wave cold powder overrunning event with a wall of HP to the north? This is evolving into something else on latest runs and I'm not sure I like it as much lol. GFS is still fine other than it places a precip minimum over my yard.
  13. I told you there was big potential for that window. Latest EPS and GEFS runs have a signal there.
  14. We shall see. Read @WxUSAF's post above.
  15. Again it will look somewhat different in the next couple cycles. That run almost certainly doesn't include the 6z GFS and Euro.
  16. That will probably look a little different at 12z-a bit less snow/more ice for southern parts.
  17. We have been pretty lucky with moderate to heavy(6-10") all snow events over the last several years on the coastal plain, including 2 last winter. Probably due for a snow to sleet deal. Hopefully not freezing rain.
  18. They bold! Nah, just stupid. TWC has been irrelevant and just silly for a long time now. Sad.
  19. I'll give it some credit- for looking a lot like some of the better models at that point lol.
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