CAPE

Forecast accuracy beyond D10 is generally 50%, or the flip of a coin esp. on details like precip amounts. Likely worse for snow. Don't get too excited based on any sensible outcome it depicts outside of a week would be my advice. Personally I only use it at long leads for general longwave pattern looks, over at least a few runs.

It continues with the same idea. All that matters on an op run at this range.

Early Dec climo is a big hurdle for the lowlands. Not impossible because it does happen from time to time. Nice to have something to track however it goes.

A well timed trailing wave with cold coming in behind the initial low is a pretty common and uncomplicated way to get some snow here. The advertised pattern is conducive.

The OL is NOT good. Especially the guards. He drafted Emery Jones- a raw talent, but knowing he wouldn't be available anytime soon coming off surgery. What other moves did he make to improve the line? He was also gaslighting about how improved Faalele was, will get better, etc. Why did he not replace Warhop given his track record? His franchise QB is paying the price for the piss-poor line play. Also did nothing to address the OL issues leading up to the trade deadline. To be clear, I don't think he should be fired but these are the reasons some think he should go.

These kinds of in-game clips are endless. Maybe Harbaugh has finally seen enough.. Ready to admit that sticking with this guy has been a failure and stop gaslighting?

Like I said, a bit too early. That said, both the Euro and GFS are hinting at a little something.

This is a pretty decent H5 look for ejecting a modest wave from the SW towards the MA with cold air pressing southward. Biggest negative is its a bit early in the season.

WTH is going on in this here thread? Maybe delete it and start over.

This is a terrible post. Take a break lol.

It would also help if Monken wasn't such a greedy dolt. Your OL fucking sucks. Your QB has bad wheels right now. Stop with the slow developing pass plays. Get Mitchell more involved.

OL is not good, and hopefully Emery Jones gets a shot at one of the guard positions. Defense is good enough if Hamilton isnt seriously injured. Biggest wildcard is Lamar's health going forward. He can cover up the weak OL if he is able to run around and buy time in the pocket, or take off downfield. He can't do that right now.

2 ugly wins in a row against bad teams. That wont get it done going forward against better teams.

The offensive line is horrendous, and Monkon doesnt know how to call plays to help offset their deficiencies. We know the 2 guards are bad, but no one on that line has been playing to their capabilities this season. Hard to mask it on a consistent basis. Lamar was the guy doing it by running around and extending plays, but with the leg issues he simply can't do it.

We shall see if he gets some playing time. That's exactly what he needs. Clearly has more talent than the 2 turds currently playing OG.

Yeah probably some good chasing opportunities.

Euro AI ENS. Looks about the same as the EPS. Pretty cold look towards the end of the first week of of Dec. Snow? Not very likely outside of the western highlands, but a positive start to met winter if it verifies..

Need the cold to get the snow.

Probably should just use the winter thread for now. I think medium-long range discussion threads are usually started right at the beginning of the month.

Anything pertaining to December really should be in the winter thread, as that is the official beginning of Met winter, and this thread is specifically for November. Maybe time to start a thread for December?

^12z GEFS looks a bit colder for around the 7th. Realistically expectations should be low for snow at that juncture, outside of first flakes in the air kind of thing. Turning colder, yes.

There would definitely be a lot of chaotic NS activity with that look, but should a wave take the southern route we could be in a good spot. Verbatim temps are marginal for us. Maybe a few days later would be better. Overall that same look a month later would be more favorable for the MA.

0.3" here

HH GFS. Scandi ridge building into GL, +PNA, and an avocado trough digging south. Just a random op run ofc, but continuing to see the same idea across guidance as we head into the first week of Met winter.

Lol not what I would call a SE ridge.. Follow the height lines. One could argue that would produce a more favorable storm track for our area than the previous run, which might tend towards being too far south. The biggest difference is the ridging poking into Greenland, and it isn't really that much different. I pay less attention to the colors on these super LR tools. Look at the height lines and imagine the flow.