CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Agree. Want some interaction but not a full phase- keep the flow flattish and cold.
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Perfect track so all in the region stays frozen- with just a bit of sleet around SBY. Ofc it probably wont work out this way.
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GEFS in good agreement with the op if you use 10:1 like the ens. To be expected at this range.
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- 12
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About done here
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Right where I want it..
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Sadly, the GFS is my model of choice for this event
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Gotta ride with the GFS and the AIs for now. I wouldn't expect the track to adjust back southward in future runs. North trends at close range seem to occur more often.
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Blue? So 0.5-0.7 is a whiff? Damn
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I only see 2, and several more that have light precip on the northern edge- and those mostly have a tight gradient, ie close to good.
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That's a good track on the mean. Doesn't erode the cold from flow off the ocean.
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I'm good with 12z GEFS precip and snowfall picture.
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I find the h5 picture to be fascinating. Love me some vorticity.
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I get all that lol. It was just a rhetorical question. You know I look at h5 first and probably analyze it more than anyone.
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What happened to the juiced up wave cold powder overrunning event with a wall of HP to the north? This is evolving into something else on latest runs and I'm not sure I like it as much lol. GFS is still fine other than it places a precip minimum over my yard.
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I told you there was big potential for that window. Latest EPS and GEFS runs have a signal there.
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We shall see. Read @WxUSAF's post above.
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Again it will look somewhat different in the next couple cycles. That run almost certainly doesn't include the 6z GFS and Euro.
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That will probably look a little different at 12z-a bit less snow/more ice for southern parts.
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Latest blend- snow and ice
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We have been pretty lucky with moderate to heavy(6-10") all snow events over the last several years on the coastal plain, including 2 last winter. Probably due for a snow to sleet deal. Hopefully not freezing rain.
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14.5/7 at 10pm
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They bold! Nah, just stupid. TWC has been irrelevant and just silly for a long time now. Sad.
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I'll give it some credit- for looking a lot like some of the better models at that point lol.
