CAPE

A juiced up inland runner with just enough cold in place could produce a big snowstorm there. Otherwise its mostly LES. Still a pretty good place to be in the eastern US even if snowfall is below normal there. All relative.

Same here. Hard to avoid the cesspool.

Well after digging a bit more using AI, that winter seems to have been more suckass than I thought for the Tug hill region lol. Because of the exceptionally powerful 2015–16 El Niño event, the lake-effect snow season started late and lacked its typical persistence. [1] Estimated Snowfall Totals While Montague can average between 200 and 300+ inches annually, estimates and nearby cooperative tracking stations put the broader town area's total roughly between 110 and 140 inches for the entire 2015–16 season: [1] Hooker (Hamlet within Montague): While Hooker holds legendary status for massive winters (and logged a whopping 339.3 inches much later during the 2024–25 season), it barely crossed the low triple-digits during the tracking span of this El Niño winter. [1, 2] Constableville 1.2 NW Station: Located just outside the Montague town line on the plateau, this official GHCN daily climate station wrapped up its main core monitoring period (Dec 1, 2015 – Feb 29, 2016) with just 96.97 inches of recorded snow. [1]

Yeah same with Syracuse. I think that area is generally drier during a Nino wrt synoptic storms.

I think the Tug Hill area received somewhat less to right about average snowfall for 2015-16 depending on the exact area, and that winter seems to be a good comp for this upcoming Nino. I would guess there will be more mild/snowless periods than typical for that area in between big snow events. PSU can dig into the other analogs. eta- Nov into Dec was quite warm relative to avg even up there, so the lack of snow during that period would have had some impact on seasonal totals.

I like Alt rock. One of my fave female rock vocalists has her share of haters, much of it conspiracy driven crap.

X is toxic. Full of bots and trolls. 90% garbage. Unfortunately many of the sports insiders and weather geeks primarily post there.

True. Live shots of her at Chiefs games, as brief as they were, really triggered certain people.

Overexposure, super rich, generic pop music, politics. Take your pick. Always gonna be haters. I am not a fan, but mostly because I don't like anything about her music.

I get it but those features will tend to shift/weaken/strengthen at times. Nothing in the atmosphere remains static. We have had recent Ninas where the NE PAC High was a pig and in an awful spot, but then later shifted northward and morphed into a -EPO. And like I said, we are sort of in uncharted territory such that these historical analogs suggesting 'binary' options may not be as reliable and somewhat different outcomes are possible.

Nah it should be on the list. He is NJ focused, and central and esp southern Jersey had a legit snowstorm(see the link I posted with snowfall reports). There were 8-10" amounts reported in SNJ. He simply missed one, which is forgivable- his site is awesome overall.

Maybe something in the middle is possible? With a bit of luck and timing, why not a couple light to moderate events and a big coastal storm? I don't think it has to be binary. We are in uncharted waters to an extent, so who really knows? (no one)

That was in the list for 2009-10. The one I am referring to is missing. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

Jan 30th 2010. 5-8" storm with some locally higher amounts- more east/south including SNJ(Ray's area). Important because we hadn't had any snow since the pre Xmas Dec blizzard, Ji was was about to have a grand mal meltdown; it was a cold powder smoke job with temps in the teens; it looked like a miss south a couple days prior, and it set the stage for what was to become probably the most epic 10 day period of snow we have seen in our lifetimes. https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/StormReports/January302010.pdf

Good site, but an important snowstorm from 2009-10 is missing.

I'm not on the beach. I have missed all those blizzards too- but I usually manage to get a moderate(6-10")event at least.

Not saying its gonna go down like this (wrt HL blocking), but the last time it developed early in winter and became a sustained feature was 2009-10. Started as a Scandi h5 ridge then evolved into a legit west-based -NAO. We know what happened from there.

Well the chiggers are somewhat avoidable by staying out of high brush and the woods, although no guarantee. I don't do anything with soil this time of year, like digging/ planting anything. They become inactive once the temp gets below 60F. I wait until Fall.

They always survive cold. Think about it- some of the worst areas for mosquitoes are well north in Canada after snow melt. Right now our area is dealing with the invasive Asian tiger mosquitoes, which need very little water to continue the cycle. They are tiny and only bite during the day. Once its dark, sit outside and have a cocktail. For me they itch like crazy when they bite, but its very brief, and no welt.

Initially looked and sounded like it could be serious.

He was pretty damn good the latter half of last season. Getting off this wretched team was the best thing for him. New life. He will generally give quality starts.

If incompetent gaslighter Elias unloaded him, he will win a Cy Young. Congrats.

Nice setting there. I know its code but now that you are past all that crap, you should remove that railing on the left side of the steps. Its an eyesore. Much cleaner look without it. Removed mine on both deck stairs years ago when I replaced the steps.

Disintegrated lol

Good reason. Embrace the desert! And chase for your sanity. You are in a pretty good spot for the upcoming Nino winter where strong coastal lows are favored that will produce upslope in your area. Just hope it is cold enough lol.