CAPE

You are gonna break 3" there.

Getting heavier rain with T&L again. Gonna easily exceed 2".

Dude its so easy to find literally anything with AI. Just do a simple search with specifically what you want to know about- What is CAPE and how does it relate to severe weather? CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It measures the amount of energy available in the atmosphere to drive the upward motion of air (updrafts), serving essentially as the fuel for severe thunderstorms. CAPE is measured in Joules per kilogram (J/kg). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] How CAPE Works When a parcel of air becomes warmer and less dense than the surrounding environment, it rises. CAPE calculates the total buoyancy force acting on that rising parcel throughout the depth of the atmosphere. The greater the temperature difference between the rising air and the environment, the higher the CAPE value and the faster the air ascends. [1, 2, 3] CAPE Values and Severe Weather Meteorologists use CAPE to gauge the intensity and potential severity of convective storms. In general, higher CAPE values indicate greater atmospheric instability. [1, 2, 3] 0 – 1,000 J/kg: Stable to weakly unstable. Generally low risk of severe weather. 1,000 – 2,500 J/kg: Moderate instability. Capable of producing strong, sustained thunderstorms. 2,500 – 4,000 J/kg: Strong instability. High potential for severe weather, including large hail and damaging winds. Greater than 4,000 J/kg: Extreme instability. Strongly supports explosive updrafts and highly severe phenomena. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7] The Bigger Picture While CAPE represents the potential energy, it is not a standalone predictor. For severe weather to develop, high CAPE must combine with a trigger (such as a cold front or daytime heating) to force the air upward, and sufficient wind shear (changes in wind speed and direction with height) to organize the storm. What are the different types of CAPE? In meteorology, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) measures atmospheric instability and storm fuel. The four main types used to evaluate severe weather potential vary by the specific air parcel measured: [1, 2, 3, 4] MLCAPE (Mean-Layer CAPE): Averages the characteristics of air parcels in the lowest 100 millibars of the atmosphere. It represents the mixed boundary layer and is highly reliable for predicting organized, surface-based storm systems. [1, 2, 3] MUCAPE (Most-Unstable CAPE): Identifies the most buoyant parcel within the lowest portion of the atmosphere. It is the best tool for spotting elevated, nocturnal thunderstorms that develop above a surface inversion. [1] 0-3 km CAPE: Measures instability only in the lowest three kilometers of the atmosphere. Lower values in this shallow layer are specifically monitored for their ability to promote the rapid stretching of air required for tornado formation SBCAPE (Surface-Based CAPE): Measures the buoyancy of an air parcel directly at the Earth's surface. It is highly useful for predicting afternoon thunderstorm and tornado potential, though it can overstate instability on days with shallow surface moisture. [1]

Torrential rain has shifted southeast, but still getting some decent moderate rain. Up to 1.73" I'm going to have to start doing actual yardwork again. Haven't touched the mower in a month lol.

1.6" now. The worm has finally turned here I think.

Nothing severe, so I was posting in the Obs thread, but this is a drought buster. Over 4" for the month- haven't seen that since..February? Up to 1.6" now, mostly in the last hour.

It's me. You could have Googled it. Now go to bed.

After missing everything earlier, getting crushed with heavy rain now. Some decent T&L too. 0.92" and countung

I'll take that lol. Watching places just to the north get 1-2" while I have less than a tenth kinda sucks.

Second round a bit further north. Strike 2 .

Maybe. Impressive T&L. Looks like some hail per radar as it moves towards the DE line. I just took a couple shots of it from my vantage point to the NE. Talk about a "near hit" here. But, just another miss lol.

A few hundredths here. Likely as much as an inch a few miles to my north.

Literally right on the southern edge. Raining pretty hard though.

That storm to my NW seems to be expanding south/turning right. Could be interesting.

But this is the severe storm thread where people root for damaging winds, hail, a spin up tornado or 2.. as long as its not in their yards. I like general gusty storms with heavy rain and T&L and the chance to get a photo of a shelf cloud. Probably have at least 10 in my 'collection'.

There is a storm to my NW and another to my SE in DE. Hearing the thunder, from both? Not going to produce anything here.

Good band but I'm not sure Merriweather is the best place to see them tonight lol

CanSIPS is probably the best possible outcome. Basin wide Nino and h5 looks favorable for cold air delivery via a -EPO/good TPV position, and hints of -NAO at times.

Some key injuries aren't helping an already precarious situation. Both catchers are having health issues and ofc Blaze is out for an extended period. The pitching has been solid lately so lets see if that continues. Fun to watch Mayo bash long homeruns whenever a pitcher makes a mistake, but otherwise he is an easy out lol. He will probably hit 20 HRs with a batting avg of .195 because there are so many shitty pitchers.

I would feel a little bit better if the Red Sox hadn't suddenly awoken and won 12 in a row. That said the AL is so pathetic the Os can stay in the hunt as long as they keep pushing towards and then past 500. I honestly don't think they can though. Too many holes. Ofc Elias will try to fill them in an attempt to save his skin, and will likely set this team back even further. He is a gaslighting turd.

I would say that is pretty pathetic and lazy if we were in normal times, but knowing what we know, I suppose it is understandable.

And now it's three quarters to one inch. No idea why they constantly do this knowing the scattered nature of how we get rain in the summer. Tomorrow morning it will be a quarter to a half, or 'tenth of an inch or less except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms', which should always be the default unless a stratiform/widespread general rain is expected.

Mount Holly bullish for heavy rainfall here on Tuesday. 1-2" in the forecast for Tuesday night.

I think he meant precip in general. Should do well with rain events to knock down any remaining deficits.

If he is healthy he is going to be the starter. Better than any of the other options currently on the roster.