CAPE

Love that GFS run for my yard. Latest ens means have low pressure too far offshore, for now. Probably need the trough more neutral/negative sooner or its going to be a scraper/offshore.

6z GFS has a Thursday clipper. 2-3" for N VA/DC/Central MD with an inch or so surrounding that.

Mount Holly going pretty aggressive here with the snow. Quite a range though so they cover their ass lol. 3-7 tomorrow night and 4-8 Sunday. I would have 2-5" here Sunday and insert sleet into the forecast.

Mt Holly only mentions snow and freezing rain in the forecast for here- no mention of sleet. Maybe they are taking the Euro verbatim with its freezing rain output. GFS has more significant sleet and less amounts of zr.

Yeah I just posted a map in the main thread. Not really in range but it does look good.

Only goes out 60 hours but this gives an idea-

I would go 6-10" max unless the models trend souther/colder.

GFS and UKie have been close but cant imagine they are riding with that combo lol.

Goddamn Mt Holly going big. I guess they think the Sat night thump is gonna be legit for the coastal plain... like 1-3" per hour lol

I don't see 10" in Easton otherwise.

Ok, but the discussion was about the Euro not the AI. It has been slightly better for multiple runs.

Yeah the Euro is clearly fucked up wrt zr vs. sleet.

Not really seeing it myself. What you see as a slight step I see as slight run to run noise. The snowfall maps are worse other than places NW of I-95, whether you choose to use the 10:1 or Kuchera. Not a massive difference but this run is not a move towards the GFS in a sensible weather context, and that's all that matters at this point.

At this range, the ensembles should very closely resemble the op, or something is probably wrong with the model lol. I think we are probably past the point where the GEFS offers any real insight.

One thing to consider- that's some hella impressible Arctic air that's gonna be in place, so the primary shouldn't push too far north before redevelopment off the coast, then its a question of is it more likely to have a tucked coastal low further north, or a tad more south/off the coast in a situation like this? A legit case could be made for the GFS- and we arent talking worlds apart here.

Not sure anyone would be complaining if HH GFS worked out.

It has the best overall outcome for the majority of the region. Ukmet kinda supports it. Not the best combo lol

Yeah, they aren't sure what the fuck to go with for now, so a little bit of everything with ambiguous wording. Understandable given the disparity at this juncture. Overrunning precipitation develops on a developing warm front out ahead of the surface low Saturday night. With temperatures mainly in the teens, any precipitation that develops will be snow and snow accumulations will occur quickly. With snow ratios from 15-20:1, can expect a quick 1 to 3 inches over northern zones, 3 to 6 inches from around Philadelphia, through southern New Jersey, and into northern Delmarva, and 5 to 7 inches across southern Delmarva. What will need to be watched is if snow ratios lower late at night across southern Delmarva as warmer air lifts to the north. From there, snow continues to ramp up throughout the day Sunday. 12Z models have continued to trend to the north, and as a result, more in the way of warmer air will spread into the region aloft. The 12Z/22 ECMWF looks to be centered over the Delmarva Peninsula by Sunday evening, while the 12Z/22 GFS has the center of the low some 50-100 miles southeast of the ECMWF. The 12Z NAM now goes out until 00Z Monday and splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS. The 12Z/22 CMC is even a bit more to the northeast than the ECMWF. Ultimately, this results in a warmer solution, and can expect a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain well into southeast Pennsylvania, mainly along the I-95 corridor, and northern New Jersey, while rain and snow will develop along the New Jersey coast and southern Delaware. For the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, precipitation remains all snow. Cannot rule out a period of plain rain for portions of the southeast New Jersey coast and southern Delaware coast. This wintry mix continues through Sunday evening before changing back to all snow late Sunday night. Snow then continues into Monday morning before ending. Overall, snow accumulations look to be on the order of 12 to 15 inches for the majority of the area, with slightly less in southern Delmarva.

Gimme flat. Need flatter flow.

Mount Holly slightly bullish for here for now- 4-8" Sat night, then snow/sleet Fr rain on Sunday, snow could be heavy at times. Kinda hedging their bets.. seems like they don't really see enough of a consensus among the guidance. Haven't read their AFD yet. First things first- Getting a couple bourbons in me lol.

lol that's awful. The model is generally crappy though, just like its global parent.

We will find out soon enough lol

I question the amount of freezing rain the Euro is depicting for the DC area up towards Baltimore. Something seems off with that. Probably some of that is sleet.

The developing coastal low is tucked on the Euro and CMC. GFS has a damn near perfect track to keep almost everyone frozen. Be great if it has the right idea, but its kind of alone, and it is the GFS.

Typical 'dry' run for Euro. I think it tends to do this then ultimately juice back up.