CAPE

What makes you think we should get an HECS next year? Just because a Nino looks likely? And no one knows what the character of it will be at this juncture.

That must have been a hell of a band to produce that much difference in an hour lol

A chance for something here-

Yeah some of these reports are sus. I cant imagine Greensboro got 14". I went with 10. Goldsboro Mesonet had 10.2 max snow depth.

GEFS looks like this could be a snow to mix to probably rain SE of the Fall line. Close on the mean. Need a bit more of a cold push southward. Verbatim the snow is north into PA.

I have legit paid zero attention to this with work going on and the storm yesterday. This is a pretty good look with some decent cold in place and the usual mess of vorticity moving eastward. I might get pulled back in

12/5: 1.3" 12/14: 1.8" 12/31: 0.2" 1/1: 0.1" 1/18: 0.4" 1/25: 7" snow/sleet (plus 0.3" zr) 2/23: 10" T: 20.8" (above climo by a couple inches)

I have paid no attention to this honestly, but even it if fails there is a another 2 weeks or so where a legit winter storm could occur. I might take a look at the ensembles later to see if I can identify anything interesting going forward.

If they were measuring actual snowfall properly, that 14 might have been correct. I'm too lazy to do that, so i just measure snow depth at the end. I am just going with 10 since I wasn't here until 4pm today, and on my security cam shots that looks about right.

Good luck to the interior/N and W crew. Y'all need a storm. I'm burned out. Done with it. Legit ready for Spring.

lol fuck off. You need help. Find a new drug.

I haven't had a double digit snow since 2016- but came close the last 5 winters- several 6-9" storms. I'll just go with 10" even if it was more. I'm not one to inflate numbers.

Check out the snowfall reports from Mt Holly- https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=phi&issuedby=PHI&product=PNS I have a hard time believing 14 fell here but that's not some random person making that report. Delaware got hammered.

Not sure about the 14" here, but a friend a mile west said it was a foot. I have nothing to go by except my security cam- obviously a lot of melting today. But damn central/southern Delaware got crushed

Finally home. The snow is littered with branches mostly small thankfully. A few bigger ones. Just looking at the snowfall reports from Mount Holly and WOW. Where I was in Easton(west side) might have gotten 6. ..Delaware... ...Kent County... Woodside 20.5 in 1115 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter Leipsic 18.0 in 1029 AM 02/23 Public 1 E Felton 17.5 in 1230 PM 02/23 Trained Spotter Dover 16.5 in 0945 AM 02/23 Public Harrington 16.1 in 1100 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter Smyrna 3.5 SSW 13.2 in 0700 AM 02/23 COCORAHS 3 SW Magnolia 13.0 in 0812 AM 02/23 Public Clayton 10.0 in 0645 AM 02/23 Public ...New Castle County... Hockessin 10.0 in 0555 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter Talleyville 10.0 in 1115 AM 02/23 Public Wilmington 9.5 in 0640 AM 02/23 Public Bellefonte 8.5 in 0900 AM 02/23 Public Holiday Hills 8.3 in 0210 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter New Castle County Airport 8.3 in 0100 PM 02/23 ASOS Wilmington 5.6 N 8.0 in 0700 AM 02/23 COCORAHS Newport 2.4 WNW 7.2 in 0700 AM 02/23 COCORAHS Bear 7.0 in 0630 AM 02/23 Public 1 NW Marshallton 6.3 in 0930 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter Newark 1.5 S 5.5 in 0730 AM 02/23 COCORAHS Newark 5.0 in 0830 AM 02/23 Public ...Sussex County... Bethel 19.3 in 0741 AM 02/23 Broadcast Media 3 N Long Neck 19.3 in 0800 AM 02/23 NWS Employee 4 N Delaware Coastal Airport 19.0 in 0600 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter 2 WSW Long Neck 18.7 in 1030 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter 1 SW Lewes 18.0 in 0430 AM 02/23 Public 2 SE Milton 18.0 in 0945 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter Milton 17.2 in 1121 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter 1 E Millsboro 17.0 in 1100 AM 02/23 Public Bridgeville 2.6 W 16.5 in 0700 AM 02/23 COCORAHS 3 ESE Bridgeville 16.0 in 0800 AM 02/23 COCORAHS Gumboro 15.5 in 0941 AM 02/23 Public Delmar 0.1 WSW 13.0 in 0831 AM 02/23 COCORAHS ...Maryland... ...Caroline County... Greensboro 14.0 in 1037 AM 02/23 Emergency Mngr Denton 12.0 in 1038 AM 02/23 Emergency Mngr 4 SSE Ingleside 12.0 in 1100 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter 3 N Oakland 11.0 in 1035 AM 02/23 Emergency Mngr ...Kent County... Millington 6.0 in 0530 AM 02/23 Public Chestertown 3.9 in 0755 AM 02/23 Trained Spotter ...Queen Annes County... 3 SSE Hope 10.0 in 1036 AM 02/23 Emergency Mngr Sudlersville 10.0 in 1035 AM 02/23 Emergency Mngr Church Hill 8.5 in 1036 AM 02/23 Emergency Mngr 3 SSE Church Hill 8.0 in 1037 AM 02/23 Emergency Mngr Crumpton 8.0 in 1038 AM 02/23 Emergency Mngr Centreville 7.0 in 0715 AM 02/23 Emergency Mngr Grasonville 5.0 in 0459 AM 02/23 NWS Employee Queenstown 4.5 in 1032 AM 02/23 Emergency Mngr 2 SW Stevensville 4.4 in 0700 AM 02/23 CO-OP Obse

It's compacting. At 6am when I checked Ridgely had 8.1"

Reposting here. I put it in the other thread. Here is a shot from my security cam. Lots of sagging tree limbs and I am sure there is damage. The power was out there for 2 hours last night. Looks like Narnia lol.

Shot from my security cam. Haven't seen branches bent and sagging like that for a long time. Narnia look lol

Looking at the local Mesonet stations, Ridgely snow depth is 8.1 and Goldsboro 9.6. My house is in between those 2. Still snowing moderately per radar.

eta- Goldsboro, 3 mi to my NE is reporting a depth of 6.8"

Ridgely Mesonet station, 3 miles to my SW, is reporting a snow depth of 5.43 inches. Reasonable to think my yard is pushing 6"

That's a long term deal. So are mine. We know why. But the 'losing the margins' argument doesn't apply to every discrete event. Macro vs micro.

The last storm we had was very cold- historically so for the period that followed. Several storms such as the beach blizzards in 2017 and 18 were cold powder. I don't disagree with the general concept, but it simply does NOT apply in all cases and you beat that dead horse constantly. We get it. I remember forecasts failing for not being cold enough as a kid up in your world back in the 80s. Always counterpoints to these arguments.

Yeah the yellows are filling in. I'm not there though.

My uncle lives there. Those bands are pivoting west, hopefully to my yard.