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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    This is as warm as it gets, and not much different from other guidance. Yes probably some plain rain for a few hours for extreme southeastern parts of the region.
  2. CAPE
    HRRR look good. Primative grunt.
  3. CAPE
    33 heading to 10 Just started a fire to keep the heat pump from running.
  4. CAPE
    No. There is no "folding". That's simpleton talk.
  5. CAPE
    Your area did pretty well didn't it?
  6. CAPE
    Most of the precip ends up just offshore, but this h5 look is a beauty on the 12z EPS.
  7. CAPE
    What, this?
  8. CAPE
    I made a post about the favorable h5 look earlier in the week, and it hasn't really changed imo. I still think there is big dog potential. ( i actually hate that phrase) The ens runs have shown a signal for a storm, but not consistently yet.
  9. CAPE
    6-12 is the forecast for here. I will expect closer to 6, but if precip comes in hot and heavy as some runs have shown, upside might be better.
  10. CAPE
    Looks pretty much the same to me, but since the highest temp here is 28 vs 29 on the previous run, its souther!
  11. CAPE
    HH GFS is the same outside of a bit of noise between runs. Actually slightly colder here as the coastal low makes its closest pass.
  12. CAPE
    Its gonna snow. Its going to be the most we have seen this winter. Yes it will sleet and be icy too, and for some rain a bit, but everyone will see several inches. Quit moaning if you expected a foot and it isnt realistic anymore. Enjoy what you get- it isnt going anywhere for a week- and we have the potential big dog coastal storm to track for next weekend. The tracking never ends when we have a favorable pattern. Rather have a shit the blinds pattern with nothing?
  13. CAPE
    We have zero control of the outcome of any of this. Fun shit eh?
  14. CAPE
    If you want to claim a window for a storm, you cant just post a random op run and say ooh look a storm! lol ( not that Ralph did that, idk) You do this-
  15. CAPE
    I liked it first. Its another Cape storm. The last one was a bit underwhelming, but a prelude to the one that's on our doorstep.
  16. CAPE
    He was the HC of Arizona..that's a tough gig. He did a nice job as OC with the Commanders in JDs rookie season, and they went to the NFC Championship game. This season was a disaster for many reasons, none of it really his fault. Apparently Minter also likes him, so if he doesn't get a HC job, he probably will be the guy.
  17. CAPE
    Ok then they both incrementally moved towards general agreement. I tend to watch the location and track of the developing coastal low because that has more influence over here. GFS has shifted NW with the track and is warmer than it was(more like the Euro) as the flow off the ocean erodes the low level cold for a time.
  18. CAPE
    It has incrementally moved towards the Euro- gets plain rain on the lower eastern shore for a time with the low closer to the coast.
  19. CAPE
    12z GFS gets heavier precip in quicker- nice thump
  20. CAPE
    Ravens should hire Kingsbury as OC. Word is Lamar supports it.
  21. CAPE
    Love that GFS run for my yard. Latest ens means have low pressure too far offshore, for now. Probably need the trough more neutral/negative sooner or its going to be a scraper/offshore.
  22. CAPE
    6z GFS has a Thursday clipper. 2-3" for N VA/DC/Central MD with an inch or so surrounding that.
  23. CAPE
    Mount Holly going pretty aggressive here with the snow. Quite a range though so they cover their ass lol. 3-7 tomorrow night and 4-8 Sunday. I would have 2-5" here Sunday and insert sleet into the forecast.
  24. CAPE
    Mt Holly only mentions snow and freezing rain in the forecast for here- no mention of sleet. Maybe they are taking the Euro verbatim with its freezing rain output. GFS has more significant sleet and less amounts of zr.
  25. CAPE
    Yeah I just posted a map in the main thread. Not really in range but it does look good.
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