CAPE

33 and drizzle lol

HH GEFS If you want better odds drive north, or head to the mid south, or better yet charter a boat and head east.

Good luck with obtaining Lamar when your team owes Tua like 54 million next year, and no other team wants him. Lamar is having an injury riddled year, and his contract situation going forward is a major issue. IMO not many teams would be takers because their cap situation simply wont allow it. Maybe a team like the Raiders? Personally, I am neutral on Lamar at this point. Great talent when healthy but the Ravens need at least a partial rebuild, and not sure how they accomplish that with his contract situation going forward. The OL is atrocious and if they cant make significant improvements there then Lamar will end up like Burrow.. its already happening. eta- If the Dolphins cut Tua, that leaves them with $99M of dead money. Again, good luck. Your team is pretty much stuck.

Arctic front around New Years ends up dry this run for us. Potential is there for a quick shot of snow with NS energy moving along the front as we saw on the 12z run. Pretty impressive h5 look.. nice cold shot at least.

Nothing here at all- not that I expected much more than a few sleet pellets/drizzle today. Hoping for nothing tonight- would love a dry day tomorrow to get some outside work done before the next rainy period.

Having it persist inside of 10 days for one lol.

Decent signal for a coastal low on the 12z EPS with a favorable h5 look up top.

That and probably more importantly a north Atlantic block that forces the thermal boundary southward along the coast as an OV low tries to move northeastward, causing a new low to form. Gotta have more blocking, baby!

One of the best storms/legit blizzards of my lifetime was Feb 9-10 2010.. a Miller B. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/10-Feb-10-SurfaceMaps.html

Eh, be careful. Many of our good events are technically Miller B/hybrid. Relatively few are Miller A.

A legit block in place as it approaches would help- as is the HP is in a good spot initially but then shifts further NE. One run though- a few tweaks in the pattern could result in a better outcome.

And here we go. Its a possibility with NS energy moving along the boundary with a reinforcing cold shot as advertised. Something to keep an eye on.

lol Tenman

Pretty chilly day here. 43 currently.

There are some subtle hints on the ens means for the first week or so of Jan. The first is possibly here-

GFS is definitely the most favorable model for frozen/freezing precip our region, so you aren't wrong despite the disagreement on your post. We shall see how it all transpires in future runs.

Yeah mid 20s and pure freezing rain. I had to drive in that shit from college to home- ended up doing a 360 just a few miles from home and hit a parked car. Rare storm for here as we normally go to plain rain pretty quickly with a flow off the ocean in those setups. Surface HP to the N/NE was a beast.

They were "great" as ice storms go here as well. One(in Jan) was pure ZR- roads were an ice rink- and the other(early Feb I think) was a combo but mostly a sleet-fest. Lots of tree devastation.

Latest Euro extended(weeklies) gets to a much more favorable h5 look sooner than the previous run- trough out west completely gone for mid Jan period, replaced by a negative EPO/followed by a neutral-transitioning to positive PNA and a more impressive -NAO. Previous run-

GFS is all alone among the globals as far as sleet/snow goes in the majority of our region. Freezing rain? No interest.

Seems like I just did.

Latest GFS Ext runs have a -EPO with a west based -NAO

Nailed it.

Not much different on the mean compared to 12z. Noise. Y'all get too goddamn granular on the differences between runs. 18z is a hold.

It is literally the same as 12z for our area.