CAPE
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Seeing a storm on some op runs.
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Still seeing a signal for a coastal storm for early Feb on ens guidance. I'm still thinking there is big potential for that window.
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Just read the Richmond AFD--Obvious concern but they think the Euro is overdoing the ice, which I said in my post earlier(it has almost three quarters of an inch here). The forecasters there are thinking a good chunk of that will be sleet, but expecting significant ice as well- potentially catastrophic in some places.
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I'll take the sleet, but not a half inch+ of freezing rain. eff that. Euro had like 0.7" here. That s way overdone I think. It will either be sleet or ultimately go to plain rain if that track holds.
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GFS has some decent backend snow too.
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Legendary... more like urban myth?
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Yes. It may waiver back and forth a bit from run to run, but I would be surprised if the outcome ends up much different. Maybe I'm wrong putting more "faith" in the Euro than other guidance, but AI I don't fully trust yet, CMC is almost always crap, and the GFS...well, lol. See what the Mesos look like as we get into their range.
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I'm not gloomy. I don't expect the Euro to vary its outcome by much from this point forward. Not generally what it does. The ingesting new/better sampled data thing- do you know how many desperate weenies have used that one in this forum over the years? Its in the rule book lol
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What does that have to do with my observation of the last few runs?
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Euro going the wrong way. Each run has less snow and more sleet/fr rain for I-95 and points SE. Can hope its wrong, but most likely its not lol.
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Plenty of our storms are Miller B, including some rather epic ones(see Feb 2010). More of these type, or a hybrid of such, occur than a pure Miller A. Not sure why some think they are "bad".
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Agree. Want some interaction but not a full phase- keep the flow flattish and cold.
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Perfect track so all in the region stays frozen- with just a bit of sleet around SBY. Ofc it probably wont work out this way.
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GEFS in good agreement with the op if you use 10:1 like the ens. To be expected at this range.
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About done here
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Right where I want it..
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Sadly, the GFS is my model of choice for this event
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Gotta ride with the GFS and the AIs for now. I wouldn't expect the track to adjust back southward in future runs. North trends at close range seem to occur more often.
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Blue? So 0.5-0.7 is a whiff? Damn
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I only see 2, and several more that have light precip on the northern edge- and those mostly have a tight gradient, ie close to good.
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That's a good track on the mean. Doesn't erode the cold from flow off the ocean.
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I'm good with 12z GEFS precip and snowfall picture.
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I find the h5 picture to be fascinating. Love me some vorticity.
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I get all that lol. It was just a rhetorical question. You know I look at h5 first and probably analyze it more than anyone.
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What happened to the juiced up wave cold powder overrunning event with a wall of HP to the north? This is evolving into something else on latest runs and I'm not sure I like it as much lol. GFS is still fine other than it places a precip minimum over my yard.
