Morning AFD from Mount Holly for tomorrow-
KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low slides by offshore on Sunday, bringing
some snow, mainly to areas along and south/east of I-95. The highest
snow amounts will be concentrated near the coast.
An area of low pressure develops off the coast of the Outer Banks on
Saturday Night and lifts northeast. The low looks to pass by close
enough to bring some snow to the region, mainly along and south/east
of the I-95 corridor. The latest trend with the 00z guidance was a
slight jog northwest with the track of the low, which would bring
more snow to the region. However, will not deviate much from the
previous forecast to avoid wind-shield wiping the forecast plus the
setup is not overall conducive for a significant snow event. The
deterministic forecast is more in line with HREF and NBM. Thinking
around 1-2" from I-95 on south and east. Cannot rule out some
amounts higher than 2", especially near the immediate coast.
However, there could be some mixing issues in the coastal areas as
well at onset as temperatures will be above freezing in the low-
levels. This may be offset though by higher QPF compared to inland
areas and heavier snowfall rates. Both NBM/HREF probability of 2" or
more (Advisory criteria) is around 20-30% for the coastal counties
with 10-20% near I-95. So, we may need winter weather headlines near
the coast, however the theme with this event remains unchanged as it
should just be a rather light snowfall with insignificant snowfall
totals.