CAPE

Close to the same timeframe- on the GEFS ens mean it looks like a trailing wave with the previous lakes cutter moving towards the 50-50 region and upper ridging over Baffin- not an actual block, more transient in nature but can still work with timing. Verbatim there is snow for the region on the mean here.

Mid month is the window. See my previous post(or the one before that i cant remember lol). I didn't look at the AI tools, just the conventional Ens guidance. Signal is there on all 3. No guarantees ofc.

Believe it or not.. its not all about how much more snow he gets than the rest of us lol

Yeah well that's a big part of his other interests.

This place is a riot. Goddamn.

LOL He has other interests, as all of us should/do have.

Nothing before that? LOL

We live in the Mid Atlantic. "Workable" patterns are what we have to work with, if we are lucky. Sometimes they yield something, other times not so much. With certainty, we have HH everyday though.

I'm not sure why you worry so much about the very end of the ens runs. You know this is subject to larger errors. I have done some analysis of each of the big 3(GEFS/EPS/GEPS) over multiple consecutive runs(fwiw lol), and I think there is a decent shot at a snow event mid month, +/- a day or so. Building EPO ridge, SW trough undercutting the western ridge with energy ejecting eastward, and a pretty solid look in the NA. All models to varying degrees indicate significant precip in the Tennessee valley with height lines oriented SW to NE. Ofc it might not work out but there is potential in that window on guidance. If it torches beyond that, so be it. As we know, these modeled warmups in the LR have been perpetually pushed back for months lol.

Sun finally out and temp up to 32. Not going to get close to the forecast high of 38 lol

I made a post further up in the thread with h5 images showing how imperfect the pattern was leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm, including a SE ridge which became more of a WAR that linked up with a transient -NAO. It snowed a day later. That was the famous 'shit the blinds' pattern with no end in sight, yet I identified a way out and a specific threat window 10 days or so in advance. I got lucky and it actually worked out.

Snow chances probably aren't very high(although this is literally the only period the model gives us snow). Nor have the chances of snow been high with the better look up top, legit cold in place and zero SE ridge. Its a crapshoot man. I bet we get some snow in the next 15 days, because that's how random this all is, models aren't very reliable at range, and ofc, the WDI!

The boom for this was like a half inch lol

This was never a super serious thread lol. Ji needs a Xanax.

This is a pretty flat ass ridge- Look at the trough in the SW.. follow the height lines and ignore the colors.. Verbatim we get snow (as far south as S VA) during this period.

I got the GFS and the Euro ens giving me snow. This is serious stuff here.

A potential widespread coating of snow is no joke. Not even a troll job. You are losing it lol. Pull the plug!

ofc you are- over a single deterministic run 318 hours out. See ya next winter!

We ARE back BABY!

I'll hug the GFS to bring my third dusting in 4 days lol

We back? Dead?

Cloudy cold day. Temp 29 at 1pm

True but it does have a more impressive -NAO and suppresses the SER more than the GEFS.

We can definitely snow with this look. EPO ridge amps even more beyond this. GEFS is not bad in this window either but the SER is not quite as suppressed.

The GEPS is actually colder than the GEFS-almost all of the country has below avg temps after the 12th verbatim, but coldest out west and more like slightly below in the east. It is advertising a stronger -NAO, which seems to be the primary difference between it and the GEFS and why its colder, but also ends up with a more amped EPO ridge so probably a bit more cross Polar flow.