CAPE

Yet the reality is its been dry as a bone other than one storm. Arctic desert cold.

I tend to agree wrt the potential centered on the 20th, but it has trended somewhat colder overall on the ens means and still 7 days out, so worth monitoring for more favorable changes.

Friday HH drinkies Stopped in to one of my go to liquor stores 2 miles from where I work with the intent of picking up a big ass stout, and then I saw a bunch of 120 min IPA Limited release singles on the shelf- 9 bucks a piece! Fuck yeah I picked up a few. IMO the best 120 version ever, primarily due to the dry hopping which was never done before with this beer. That zing at the end after the malty/sweet dark fruit middle is incredible. eta- One thing about the dry hopping- it doesnt age well. So while complex beers like this one overall get better/smoother with age, the dry hop component will pretty much disappear.

Around the 20th on the AI ENS- Miller B-ish like the GEFS. Its all about the NA. The signal for the 24th is weaker, but there. Expected given how far out that window is. We got some chances before March, and probably beyond- The key features are a WPO ridge and a favorable NA.

There is a bit of a signal on the AIFS ENS. Mostly north but still way out there obviously.

I thought it was 19. Either way its a hell of a streak. The open fields around me are thinning with some bare spots, but here in the woods still 90% or so with the sunny side out that back showing a few bare spots.

I wouldn't sleep on the 20th. The H5 look has improved some on recent runs, specifically in the NAO space. A deep upper low near the Maritimes is helping to compress the flow underneath and the potential storm looks less like a cutter and more like a Miller B on the GEFS.

Weak and south wont do it. This has always been about a strong low, which requires a damn near perfect phase at h5, and a perfect LP track, with heavy precip and dynamic cooling. A lot to ask for just to get it to snow moderately. The antecedent airmass is pretty bad.

Sounds fun. Enjoy it. It isn't gonna snow in the lowlands here lol.

A -PNA can work if the other key indices are favorable: -AO/NAO and a ridge in the WPO and /or the EPO space.

Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side.

Other than me, he is keeping this thread alive lol.

Potential is still there. I guess most aren't paying attention to potential down the road and are clinging to a Presidents day storm that may yield few sloppy inches mostly for NW areas, which is fine given the alternative- rain or nothing at all lol.

The LP is a weakling. Not gonna work in this setup with marginal cold. A couple inches in the favored areas looks to be the upside.

They needed to sign another starter. Was worried Elias was going to pull the same old shit.

Might make a run at 60 mid next week. Mid 50s look likely at this point.

Yeah I didn't read his post correctly. That sort of thing doesn't really interest me, but it probably wont if the forecast pattern comes to fruition.

I wouldn't care if we had gotten some snow on top of the glacier, but most of that cold was wasted, other than keeping snow/ice cover otg for an extended period. At least our dry streak continues lol.

The WPO is forecast to be significantly negative for the last week of the month. The advertised orientation of the ridge can help offset the -PNA some, and the EPO is forecast to be only slightly positive before rising some the last few days of the month. AO and NAO look to be negative, but not severely. If all this verifies then the only 'unfavorable' index is the PNA, which is forecast to trend less negative from the 20th through the end of the month.

lol I don't think he likes the last week of Feb for cold. -PNA eta: +EPO!

I've been posting about that period in the other thread. The 'good' pattern has been getting delayed a bit but beyond the 20th has been looking more favorable on the ens means, with hints of storms.

This is all silliness and has no relevance to what actually occurs. Weather does what it does when it does. Doesn't give a fuck about weekend rules or whatever else.

A few

This period doesn't look quite as good as it did a few days ago, but guidance is hinting at a few chances for wintery weather. Still have a developing -WPO and a decent NA look with a modestly -NAO and tendency for lower heights in the 50-50 region. Yes the trough out west is not ideal, but also not a death knell given the other h5 features. Still looks like a somewhat colder regime is in the works based on the HL upper level flow.

What we have is time- time for the models to converge on the perfect phase...time for the upper levels to align so that we somehow have a cold feed from the north into a pacific airmass.. and then the perfect track/ strong low pressure with heavy precip and dynamic cooling. All meteorologically possible!