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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    The CFS has been remarkably consistent in suggesting Feb and March will hold the best chance for cold and a big winter storm. Dec h5 pattern looks very mild with PAC puke look, and Jan might trend colder towards the end. Not surprising that the latter part of winter has the best potential to deliver when the Nino may relax a bit/ max SST anomalies shift more westward. All fwiw ofc. Pretty nice looks here. Should be just cold enough a time or two as the key features shift/ align in a favorable configuration.
  2. CAPE
    Update- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 804 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Storm Surveys Continue in portions of Delaware, northeast Maryland, and southeast Pennsylvania... The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ is currently conducting a review of storm surveys for the areas near Dover and Hartly in Kent County, DE, Barclay and Marydel in Queen Anne's County, MD, and Downingtown in Chester County, PA. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area on Thursday, August 20th, 2026. *Update #1: Two additional tornadoes have been confirmed, one in Queen Anne's County in northeast Maryland and one in Chester County in southeast Pennsylvania. The total number of confirmed tornadoes from Thursday, August 20th within our County Warning Area is now three. An EF-1 tornado has been confirmed near Barclay in Queen Anne's County, Maryland. An EF-0 tornado has been confirmed near Downingtown in Chester County, PA. We have previously confirmed that at least EF-1 tornado damage, with estimated peak winds up to 105 mph, occurred with the tornado that impacted the Dover, DE area. Surveys and analyses are still ongoing. Stay tuned for additional updates as more information become available within the next few days.
  3. CAPE
    Getting another line of showers after some peaks of sun. This should be it until the front moves through later.
  4. CAPE
    2.45" for the week. Not bad.
  5. CAPE
    That's training too. Probably a couple inches in some places if it holds together.
  6. CAPE
    Everyone here maybe. Pro forecasters know the models are an imperfect tool- thus they are used as forecast guidance. If less data is available in certain regions at initialization, it will have some impact on modeled outcomes.
  7. CAPE
    Bigly
  8. CAPE
    Picked up 0.55" here overnight. Woke up and it was raining hard. Wasn't supposed to get much of anything until today. I guess it came early.
  9. CAPE
    Sad how Alonso has been everything the Os had hoped he would be, and it has made zero difference. That speaks volumes about where this team is(or isnt).
  10. CAPE
    Weird how the Os seem to be able to find ways to beat the Rays, probably the second best team in baseball.
  11. CAPE
    Good luck with that fantasy lol.
  12. CAPE
    Never said he wasn't dude. He is a great hitter. But this team is NOT competitive, and he might be wasting his best years here, so maybe it might be best for both parties to trade him so he can get with a winning team, make them better, give him a chance to win something, while the Os can get more young talent and continue their perpetual rebuilding mode. The sad reality. Deal with it.
  13. CAPE
    Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 520 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...Storm Surveys Ongoing in portions of Delaware, northeast Maryland, and southeast Pennsylvania... The National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ is currently conducting storm surveys for the areas near Dover in Kent County, DE, Barclay and Marydel in Queen Anne's County, MD, and Downingtown in Chester County, PA. The survey is in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through the area on Thursday, August 20th, 2026. We have confirmed that at least EF-1 tornado damage, with estimated peak winds up to 105 mph, occurred with the tornado that impacted the Dover, DE area.
  14. CAPE
    Well it is true that droughts can tend to be self sustaining(positive feedback loop) due to multiple factors. As for the models, I would think the physics are capable of resolving that to some degree. In places where general/long term dryness is a feature due to topography(downsloping for example) the models certainly can 'see' that- often depicting a precip min in those locales. Just ask @EastCoast NPZ
  15. CAPE
    Was that his way of saying 'drought begets drought'?
  16. CAPE
    As in that this team could actually contend this year? Fuck no. But the reality is at least one awful team is going to make the playoffs, which is complete crap, and one issue MLB faces right now. Stop being the NBA(making the long regular season largely meaningless), and figure out how to come up with a cap/floor to achieve some semblance of competitive balance.
  17. CAPE
    Why are you here? Shocking. This isn't your thing. No digital blue showing up in the long range yet?
  18. CAPE
    After last night, they are pretty much done. Sniffed 500, now lost 4 straight. 9.4% chance of making the playoffs(which is pointless anyway). They are who we thought they were.
  19. CAPE
  20. CAPE
    lol any discussion of a SSW event in August for the upcoming Fall probably means we are totally fucked.
  21. CAPE
    Closing in on an inch, but about done. Just about 2" in the last few days.
  22. CAPE
    0.93" and still raining moderately, but on the back edge. Just about 2" since Monday.
  23. CAPE
    A few photos of the line approaching. This was right about the time Dover was potentially getting rocked by a tornado. Also nudged this guy off the road.
  24. CAPE
  25. CAPE
    Very impressive thunder, but sort of in between the main line and another developing cell congealing just to my SE for now. 0.40" so far Glad I got that unexpected storm on Monday that produced just under an inch.
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