CAPE

Cold rain. Temp down to 36 and 0.27"

I lived up there for almost 10 years as a kid( in the 80s), so I get the historical advantages in marginal setups. About 10 miles south of Westminster at an elevation just under 800 feet. I think Westminster averages about 35 inches, probably a bit less where I lived but not by much.

Other than the ratter a few years ago I have been right around or just under the long term avg in recent winters. Ninas can tend to have colder periods and over here we can do well with late developing/offshore coastals. Lots of Ninas lately and not bad at all here wrt snowfall. Btw that 18.5" is for Denton, 10 miles south of me. Years ago when the CPC allowed the ability to look up historical data for many stations(free), I did Denton, Centerville, and Chestertown. IIRC Centerville was 19" and Chestertown about the same or a bit more. What happened to that? Is there any other resource where detailed historical weather data can be obtained?

It probably affects us all proportionally. Long term avg here is 18.5. No idea what it is now, but its less than that.

Light rain, 38 degrees 0.15" so far

Because there isnt a NA blocking set up, the success of the upcoming potential events largely lies with timing of the vortices moving into the 50-50 space- they will be on the move and we need the confluence/convergence on the west side to flatten the flow some and keep surface HP in place.

2 potential windows in a less than ideal pattern-hard to ask for more. The 20th is the longer shot for now. The window centered on the 23rd looks better, but unfortunately as we get closer the looks have become less favorable lately. We just cant know yet.

The Miller B signal has been there on the mean for a few days now, but it has trended south on the EPS on recent runs. Discussed this in the other thread. Still a bit of a longshot, but still some time for adjustments. The window around the 23rd is also intriguing(maybe more so) with a Miller B look, but further south. The look up top is nice with HP to the N/NW and the 50-50 low.

We have had some timely blocking episodes in recent winters, but not anything I would consider sustained. A transient -NAO doesnt mean there is an atmospheric block. Maybe 2009-10 was a unicorn and we never see that again, but I hope that's not the case.

I dunno. This just doesnt look like a a winner baby, not for our latitude. Now a stronger low along the coast, you would have something up your way at least. It doesnt really deepen until its well offshore though. And the High to the NE with lower pressure to the NW, kinda inverted from what we want, esp in a marginal Pacific airmass. Not like we have an antecedent cold air mass in place, but retreating. Its freaking mild air leading in. I think we agree in general, but I just don't think it applies in all marginal situations. A slightly stronger High to the north, even with the same weakish low and track might have been enough to tip the scales up your way. Its the fine details in a marginal setup that can make the difference.

How about a Modoki, with hella NA blocking? We can't have nice things anymore

Yup. We had an arctic desert for 20 days.

Two things can be true at the same time. Not debating the 2 degree warming, but each synoptic setup, although similar, will have some details that are different but important. I'm just not sure this 2 degree difference can be applied across the board. Seems like an oversimplification that doesnt account for the nuances. The current setup may or may not have had a different(more favorable) outcome in the 1970s. Devil in the details- that hasn't changed. The current airmass is almost entirely Pacific in origin with a significantly negative PNA, while the AO is positive and the NAO is neutral. The only decent cold is to our NE, and no real mechanism to involve it in the storm as it stands. Need better than that to somewhat negate the unfavorable Pacific imo. We needed a stronger low with a better track as we saw in several model cycles a few days ago, and dynamic cooling got the lower levels just cold enough for a paste bomb.

Yep. It isnt perfect, but we often see the so called 'perfect pattern' and nothing comes of it. We get snow from flawed patterns sometimes.

Winter is probably not over yet, even though it may seem like it looking for specific winter storm threats on recent guidance. The overall advertised longwave pattern going forward is not bad. We don't always need perfection mid to late winter to get snow.

No idea lol. At some point I will be looking to upgrade. Getting close to 120k miles.

I have been a Jeep person for decades lol. I have had a 96 Jeep Cherokee- 5 speed manual with power nothing, a 2000 Limited, a 2005 Hemi Grand Cherokee Limited, 2 SRT Grand Cherokees(2008, 2012) and more recently 2 GC Overlands, currently a 2017 with 117K miles on it.

I am heading out to wash the Jeep now. Damn near 3 weeks of being salt encrusted and there wont be a better time than now. Sunny and upper 40s.

If I were a mod I would restrict him to the Panic room. Not even banter. He can shit that up too.

Check the last 2 runs. It would get credit for nailing fuck all. You are literally the worst poster here. Please stop.

The steadiest global model wrt snow over the last several runs has been the ICON. The 18z NAM looks about the same.

Down to about 75% coverage, Lower part of the driveway is a swamp. It may have been dry af the last 19 days, but there is over an inch of water in this stuff so as it melts it's putting a dent in the dryness/drought. 48 here

Forecast here actually has snow in it- less than a half Sunday night and the same for Monday. Translation- there might be a period of snow TV.

The Blend

lol It must bomb the low. 'generates its own cold air'