CAPE

18z HRRR looks fun for this evening.

The new watch west of the bay is in effect until 10pm. The watch over here expires at 5pm. I'm guessing it would be extended.

Yeah after reading the meso discussion it seemed pretty likely.

Go chase it. Looks like the cell just to the NE of that one is pretty close to your neck of the woods.

Looks more impressive now.

I guess they found a motor from another supplier lol. The initial 3 week eta was insane.

Most of the 12z Mesos look interesting for later, esp near and east of the bay. 12z 3Km NAM is a bit more scattered/isolated compared to its 6z run though.

Yeah it looks like NE MD and southward into DE have the best shot with this initial round.

Pretty clear elongated outflow boundary associated with the primary area of convection moving S/SE, as the convection itself is expanding southward.

Hell of a disco from SPC for the moderate risk area. "Pristine" airmass.

Still headed the wrong way. Into the abyss. Zero signs of turning it around. FFS do something. Fire Hyde. The result might be just as bad, or worse, but I doubt it. Change is needed.

Fun disco from Mount Holly. Some snippets- For Friday, a decaying MCS from upstream across the Midwest this evening is anticipated to impact the region. The threat of severe hazards will be conditional based on the timing of the MCS. If it comes through very fast and early in the morning, the severe threat will likely be low. However, a slower propagation will yield increasing instability ahead of it, which would support strengthening. These systems do tend to trend faster and further south of what guidance suggests. If a slower evolution comes to fruition, all severe hazards would be possible, mainly focused on locally damaging wind gusts, but some hail or a brief tornado could be possible if all the stars align properly. Brief heavy downpours possible as well. This MCS and the environment ahead of it will need to be monitored closely overnight. In summary, Friday`s weather and forecast will be highly mesoscale driven and have low predictability beyond about 6 hours or so. High temperatures should be mostly in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and muggy with depends in the mid to upper 60s. It will be mostly cloudy with light south to southwest winds. Remain alert for additional forecast updates regarding the potential convective threats. Forcing strengthens with an incoming potent shortwave digging from the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure slides by to the north Saturday into Saturday Night, with a cold front advancing towards and eventually through the region. Another decaying MCS may impact the area again Friday night or early Saturday. Any convection Friday night and Saturday could be impacted by this system. Temperatures will climb into the 80s and it will feel quite muggy ahead of the front. Instability looks to be on the order of around 1000 J/kg with relatively favorable shear. Thinking any showers and thunderstorms will come in the afternoon and evening as the front arrives. Main concern would be damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours, but still a good amount of uncertainty being a couple days out, especially given the potential for another early MCS.

It might not make a difference, but at this point just make a change for changes sake. Maybe someone who thinks a bit out of the box, has a little energy. Hyde is a bore and completely predictable.

Quick hitter but picked up 0.35" Total for the 'event' now 0.85"

Here now. Booming thunder and pouring rain. Needed a little excitement from this lame event lol.

Drought busted out that way.

Managed to get some rain overnight, although didn't get a flush hit from any of the cells. Most missed just to the west or east. Up to a half inch total.

Ravens S Ar'Darius Washington tore an Achilles during conditioning https://sports.yahoo.com/article/ravens-ardarius-washington-tore-achilles-230342415.html Ravens bad luck with injuries in the secondary continues, even in the off season. Starks will likely be a starter as a rookie.

We should trade profile photos.

Just looked at all the Mesonet stations east of the bay- Only Stevensville has a somewhat respectable rain total- 0.41". Everywhere else is a quarter inch or less. A tenth here. Not confident in the overnight, but the forecast is still for a half to three quarters. I would have downgraded it to a tenth or less except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Doesn't look like much chance of a more widespread steady rain for this area.

I'm getting epic bust vibes that could rival last week's over here. 12z 3km NAM depiction looks good for later, but current radar down south doesn't seem to jibe.

Haven't hit a tenth yet lol. Delayed...probably denied. Potential thunderstorms tonight will need to deliver.

Dover radar will be out for 3 weeks waiting on a new motor. That seems like a ridiculously long time.

Less than a tenth here so far. Probably a half inch max without a few hits from thunderstorms. Cams look pretty meh over here.

Pretty decent start by Eflin in his return. Maybe the Os can get a little something good going for a change. They are due.