It will completely disappear, come back, morph into something else, etc before we know anything useful about any outcome. The takeaway is we have a better than avg chance of a winter storm or 2 with the advertised upcoming pattern. That's all.
Its an op run 10 days out ffs.
So many here never learn anything after years of hanging out in these threads. All emotion and zero logical thinking. Man I am so glad I'm not wired that way.
Op runs flip flop around- its just the nature of deterministic guidance 4+ days out. Check out the 18z ens mean. Low 40s with SW flow ahead of a major cold front is exactly what is expected in mid winter. The "good" period(we hope) begins just beyond this.
Looks alike a healthy cold front approaching at the end with some snow associated with a wave along it. Sure its a bit warmish out in front as it always is in these cases, but nothing 'good' was expected until just beyond this time.