SPC
...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity...
Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should
rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual
destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens,
low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day.
Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold
front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of
instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective
SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest
a long tracked tornado will be possible.
Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front
pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a
moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to
produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes
across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This
will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may
eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during
the evening.