CAPE

Latest Natty Blend looks solid. And posting snow maps is now somewhat useful as we are within a week and the preponderance of guidance indicates a legit threat.

Yeah they got crushed with that deform band while I got dry slotted. Got half a storm here lol.

Damn I thought you moved to the desert too. Prevailing winds off of the higher terrain to the west into the valley...downsloping sucks. Otoh coastal storms or tropical storms with an easterly component do well there.

You left Leesburg?

Temps kinda suck at the end of the run on the mean, but plenty of time to correct that error.

End of the run-

Yeah he has told us that for decades lol

If we gonna do snow maps, do it right. Zoom out a bit. And THIS is the total.

I guess my technical thread is dead. I'm here now. Oh well. People love the snow maps and emotional pendulums. I'll deal with it.

There are at least 5 key pieces of energy in the western half of the US on this panel, and all of them will play a role in the ultimate outcome.

Not just spacing young lad. Timing and interactions. There are multiple pieces of energy-vorticity ribbons and balls of vorticity, on the playing field. No way to know exactly how the interplay will work out at this range.

You really are gonna move there? Good for you. I bet its bang for the buck.

Maybe just OD on Viagra? Seems like a better idea than injecting your junk.

Anybody see this? Maybe I haven't been paying attention but apparently if you pump up your willy for a bigger bulge you go further! Reports alleging that some ski jumpers are injecting their penises to make them larger stem from a strategy to gain an aerodynamic edge to achieve longer, more successful jumps. This phenomenon, often referred to in media as "penisgate," is believed to be an attempt to circumvent regulations regarding the sizing of ski jumping suits. Manipulating the Crotch Point: By artificially increasing the size of their genital area (using substances like hyaluronic acid), athletes can create a lower-hanging crotch. This allows them to wear a slightly larger suit with more fabric, which generates more lift. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/feb/06/penisgate-winter-olympics-ski-jumpers-acid-penis-health-risks-explainer

This is very acceptable for a mean at this range. GEFS and CMC ens are decent too. Pretty strong signal.

If its meteorologically possible, we track it. Fuck an MJO. It isnt the master of the atmosphere.

The NAM did a remarkable(well not for the NAM) 180 from one run to the next near gametime. The ICON was better lol.

It seems to be the best opportunity for something, for now. Have to monitor the h5 look to see if it degrades in future runs. That's what has tended to happen recently.

6z GEFS has it.

0.56" total Glad it wasn't more. Already mucky with the snow melt.

Cold rain. Temp down to 36 and 0.27"

I lived up there for almost 10 years as a kid( in the 80s), so I get the historical advantages in marginal setups. About 10 miles south of Westminster at an elevation just under 800 feet. I think Westminster averages about 35 inches, probably a bit less where I lived but not by much.

Other than the ratter a few years ago I have been right around or just under the long term avg in recent winters. Ninas can tend to have colder periods and over here we can do well with late developing/offshore coastals. Lots of Ninas lately and not bad at all here wrt snowfall. Btw that 18.5" is for Denton, 10 miles south of me. Years ago when the CPC allowed the ability to look up historical data for many stations(free), I did Denton, Centerville, and Chestertown. IIRC Centerville was 19" and Chestertown about the same or a bit more. What happened to that? Is there any other resource where detailed historical weather data can be obtained?

It probably affects us all proportionally. Long term avg here is 18.5. No idea what it is now, but its less than that.

Light rain, 38 degrees 0.15" so far