CAPE

Another nothing burger. Barely enough to wet the ground yesterday, and another disintegrating line moving this way. Still at 0.63" for the month, which fell 2 weeks ago tomorrow. Do I care? Not really. Plants are ok, grass is mostly dead as usual, and I'm going to plant clover in a couple weeks.

Still lookin good for some nice 'coolish' weather just beyond mid month with h5 ridge out west.

Wow the Polar vortex is going to descend from the stratosphere and take up residence over the northern Plains.

Mostly mid to upper 80s here for the next week. One 90 in the forecast. Uptick in humidity will be most noticeable.

Better. Yes it looks like a generally dry period for our area, but there is some uncertainty. Any rain we do see will most likely come in the form of convection and it will be scattered. Haves and have nots.

There is always variability. Especially in current times. Last winter was a weak Nina- historically terrible for DC/greater MA snowfall. But last winter was above avg for much of the MA lowlands. And cold kept it around for weeks. Not saying this winter will be that, but the climate models do have the same general longwave look. Devil in the details as always.

You are posting a rainfall map for a single op run over a 7 day period from a global model when the chance for rain is in the form of scattered convection. You think it has it nailed? Btw some in the region do get rain per that particular run, not that it means much. Do better.

Normal/below normal temps from the 20th to the end of the run. That puts us a few days from Sept. I'm sure we will get our typical second summer heat, but if August plays out like this given the nice period we just experienced, hard to complain.

The upcoming warm/hot and humid period may be relatively short lived as the h5 longwave pattern reshuffles and the mean ridge placement is out west just beyond mid month on the latest ens means.

Another nice day. Humidity a touch higher. 82/62 Getting bit outside working on the deck. Asian Tiger season now. Bastards are small but itch like crazy. Not many but just enough to find you, and as dry as it is they don't need much water to breed. Empty plant saucers etc.

low of 55

Fans are already disillusioned, and NFL football is less than a month away now. Most Orioles fans are Ravens fans. Interest in an underachieving baseball team going nowhere at that point will be next to nothing.

Yeah I have learned to accept the darkening as long as the wood is still protected. My entire house(logs) is yellow pine. White pine on the interior walls. Luckily the inside was a one and done finish. It just ambers over time, which is a nice look- just have to make sure when you hang a picture that you don't want to move it years later lol.

Not bad points you make, but given the disappointment in this unexpected disastrous season, why not give the fans something NOW, instead of a few weeks from now(not sure I completely believe they will bring em up then either). What's the risk? Virtually nonexistent.

It will be getting hot by the end of this week. Actually starting midweek. Doesn't look like we bake though- upper 80s-low 90s outside of the UHI.

Thanks. Yeah its the usual aging treated lumber. I replaced some a few years ago, now a few more. They were originally nailed and ofc the ends of the boards split, the nails rust away and the top of the joists start to rot. Repairing that, doing some sistering in some cases, and offsetting the new boards as much as possible so the ends are attached to different joists. And using deck screws ofc. Any experience in cleaning log cabins? Can't power wash-maybe at very low pressure- but no one I have hired ever does it right. Ends up uneven and with streaks and I have to go over it anyway. What I have always done myself is scrub the logs from bottom up with oxyclean and warm water by hand and rinse, then using a ladder as I go higher and continuing the process(scaffolding would be easier and safer lol). Works great but very laborious and it has gotten really old. I use a tinted Woodguard finish(oil based penetrating) and brush it on, which is also getting old. The result is fantastic but fuck am I getting tired of doing it every few years. The finish last longer than that but with all the farming around here, plus tree debris/pollen it gets dark and skanky looking pretty quick.

Tonight might be the coolest night of this this beautiful stretch of weather, with HP nearly overhead, calm winds, and mostly clear skies.

I'm outside replacing some deck boards. Fucking amazing, except for one damn mosquito that keeps trailing me. 78/58

58

Also hinting at a ridge over GL, but it would need to be a bit further south. With a -EPO and TPV in that position, there would be plenty of NS energy dropping southward. How far south and how it interacts with any potential southern stream waves might be interesting. Overall that depiction looks quite Nina-ish, but with the NE Pac ridge in a more favorable position/orientation for cold in the central and perhaps eastern US, especially NE.

With the HP positioned just to the NE, the flow is out of the east. A bit unusual this time of year.

Random shower rolled in on the easterly flow. On the northern edge here just a few drops but looks like Ridgely is getting a downpour.

So nice this morning. Next few days are going to be as good as it gets for early August.

Jimmy Smith was picked late in the first round.. so if he was drafted a few picks later he would have sucked? Pretty sure Ray Rice was a second rounder. There are others. Even IF what you say was true in past drafts, what does that have to do with this one or future drafts? Luck? Superstitiousness? Silly and Irrelevant.

This dude is likely the biggest steal of the draft. Go Ravens!