CAPE

Once in a blue moon, and mostly because of a KU and a few nickel and dimers. But I am afraid that Ninos have largely become impotent. Still have to test the Modoki with blocking, if that is even possible anymore. If we get that, and it fails, well, you know.

Great flick.

I will roll with a Nina- although they certainly can be a complete ratter like last winter, recent Ninos haven't been much better, and tend to struggle to bring even modest cold anymore. Ninas are more likely to feature h5 configurations that can bring legit cold periods to the east at times that at least give us a shot- and cold is the biggest issue now. Get a bit of timely NA help to slow the flow and there is a chance for a bigger storm that can also impact inland areas, like March 2018. All these periods in recent Ninas featured actual cold air and one or more snow events for parts of the MA east of the highlands-

The CFS at super long leads never has much blue esp on TT. It is a generally shitty model even at shorter leads. Follow the height lines and you get the general idea of what it's attempting to depict.

Not year round but its emerging here the last couple days. Also have some little clumps of onion grass that's been up for a couple weeks. All happening sooner than years past.

Maybe..

GEFS keeps giving the digital snow, esp for eastern areas. How long will it last?

Yeah I don't buy it. Just something to have fun with until it falls in line with the more skilled guidance.

About half the 12z GEFS members have rain changing to snow for the Thursday event. Weak signal on the GEPS, but more for Friday- maybe a trailing wave. Not much of an indication for anything frozen on the EPS outside of the western highlands. Someone should start a thread

We know how this will likely go, but it is inside of 7 days and there is nothing else except more LR pattern chasing. Hopium. Copium.

Pretty decent signal on the 6z GEFS. EPS and GEPS remain unenthused.

One provides a chance for ongoing precip with cold coming in, and the other is the usual cold chasing rain. Big differences. GFS scoops up almost all the southern energy and brings it east with a sharp shortwave. Euro leaves much of it behind.

There are 5 members that have some snow in the region verbatim. Not great, but better than 1 in 30. If you are gonna post this crap at least be somewhat accurate.

Anafrontal simply means a front that involves precip- eg ascending air, vs one that simply sweeps eastward with drier/colder air advecting in. Absent a mechanism to produce the the lift, yes the mountains play a role- downsloping and drying of the air as it comes eastward- in other words the usual cold chasing rain.

It has a persistent mechanism for snow Dec through early March. Like lake effect on steriods.

Worth keeping an eye on. There is literally nothing else. GFS/GEFS has been pretty persistent indicating some trailing energy sliding eastward with colder air moving in. Euro leaves it back in the SW.

One thing is for sure, the anomalously warm water in the Sea of Japan with Siberian air flowing across it is perpetually dumping snow in NW Japan. Not unusual ofc. These city folks probably can't wait for Spring, but I do love how they just keep going, business as usual. NBD. No effing road salt.

Eh, there are still multiple ways it can snow in late March. If you are talking about a big storm, then probably yes.

lol where did I say anything about sustained cold? Not happening the last half of March. But the pattern has to be such that cold enough air is available for frozen precip.

The week before looks ok at h5, but temps transition from somewhat above to normal verbatim. Could be a chance in there, esp for inland areas at elevation. At this point given how awful these super LR tools have been, more likely the good looks will be delayed, or be complete fantasy and never materialize.

For those still holding out hope, the latest edition of the weeklies suggests the h5 pattern becomes favorable (with below normal temps) the last week of March. Potentially a period to watch for a trip to the western highlands for a winter storm. For the rest of the region, a non-zero chance, but good luck.

All the recent "good" Ninas have been better to my east. Beach chase!

20" is above average in my yard. Did that 2 winters ago.

Not giving up. Its quite possible we will again see snowier than avg winters in the coming years. There will be short term irregular variations within the longer term trend.

I get it. Yesterday it was a discussion about an outcome depicted on a LR model run, so from that perspective it was in the correct thread. Knowing how things go here though, I should have responded to your 'another perfect track rainstorm' post in the other thread. We could have had our discussion/debate there. In the future my advice is to just track what's in front of us in the medium/LR threads with the understanding that the current climate regime is not the same. Not here to try and change any minds. That is futile.