CAPE

I have accepted that "good" now isn't the same as in the past. The bar is lower. Already factored into my expectations. What good does it do (in the context of this thread) to constantly go on about how our current snow climo sucks compared to a couple decades ago.

The climate is changing. It goes without saying. This thread is intended for discussion about potential upcoming events, in the here and now, with the understanding that 'things are different'. We don't need to constantly be told how the outcome would have/might have been different 30 years ago. There are other threads for that sort of discussion.

I never read a single forecast discussion from a met at Mount Holly making reference to some potential epic pattern showing up on super LR guidance. There is always some degree of uncertainty beyond a few days and it grows from there. This is a given.

This is a science/fact based forum. Ones 'beliefs' aren't necessarily relevant if there is no scientific basis.

I know you said you were joking in a subsequent post, but dropping posts like "another perfect track rainstorm" isn't at all helpful without any context. The depiction on that run was practically the antithesis of a favorable synoptic setup for frozen. Not a case for your study imo.

Stop being dramatic. This is not what's happening here.

I just think certain setups can be losers for snow whether it's now or 30 years ago. As advertised, with zero blocking, that massive high off the Canadian Maritimes and a low tracking up right along the coast, the low/mid level flow is going to be screaming out of the east/southeast. You seem to want to make every event with a low to our east that doesn't produce snow some sort of a case study to validate the climate is changing, but sometimes it is just basic physics. Outcomes today can still be the same as a few decades ago. Trying too hard here.

You keep doing this. Now isn't then. Who exactly are you trying to convince?

The low track might be good, but look up top. No block/+NAO produces an inverted UL/surface from ideal. Damn near a 1050 mb high exiting stage right off of Atlantic Canada. Not a winning look for snow in our area.

Ofc the GFS/GEFS keep hinting at something around March 1, but the EPS and GEPS don't seem too interested.

I see it. Skeptical. Regardless I have passed the point of having much interest in pattern chasing. Parts of the region may very well have a shot at something mid month, but I will do the Bob Chill thing and if I see something that looks interesting inside of 7 days, I'll start paying attention.

The obvious classic example of a developing sustained NA block. Holy shit this progression was epic. We all know how it ended up. Will we ever see it again?

Could end up better, but a typical sustained NA blocking pattern that develops via a retrograding Scandi ridge I don't think would feature a south central Canada ridge immediately leading in(there should be lower h5 heights there). We have seen this same look previously this winter and the models were dead wrong on the depicted outcome, as it instead ended up a transient/weak -NAO and not a true block.

Try not to be dumb.

That certainly could happen. We don't need a sustained block in March to get some snow. Timing as usual, and some wild shit can happen with flawed patterns and shorter wavelengths.

Not sure about this. Looking at the depiction at the end of the ens runs, and continuing forward with the extended products, it looks like the same progression we had previously that led to nothing more than a rather weak, transient -NAO. There were hints of a retrograding Scandi ridge then too, but it was a unicorn. Just going with persistence, I don't think a legit(stable) NA block is in the cards this winter, not that it would make much difference in mid to late March anyway.

I used to be bitter, or so I was told lol. I forget how that started. Speaking of bitter(s), just made an old fashioned, with quite a bite. Delicious. In other news, HH GFS has a completely new look for March 1st. Not surprising. Now we torch lol.

Apparently there isn't much to discuss wrt prospects for cold/snow for what's left of this winter. Might as well prepare ourselves for next winter's inevitable disaster.

Picked this up today. Drinking one for HH. Love KBS, but never tried this one before. This is damn good. Might have another.

Nice. Take a trip NW to the highlands and its pretty likely you will see snow.

This type of pattern(-EPO) is not uncommon at times in a Nina, and can bring legit cold. Flow tends to be progressive and the disturbances are mostly/all NS, but with amplification can dig southward enough to track underneath. Jan 22 is a good example. -EPO/+PNA was the mechanism for cold plus waves digging further south than typical. A transient -NAO/50-50 low may have led to a better outcome for areas inland.

Found it. PSU2 storm? It's happening ! this time.

Yeah activity is largely suppressed. Guidance is forecasting it to emerge in phase 4 in the LR and extrapolating, enhanced convection. There are other mechanisms that have significant influence on the NPAC jet. What's the current/forecasted state of EAMT?

MJO influences the Pac jet. Pretty sure forcing in phases 2-3-4 is associated with retraction. Ofc there are other mechanisms at play. Most of this is above my pay grade.

Suppressed MJO predicted to emerge again near the MC, Pacific jet retraction. Ofc the PDO. Much more Nina like.