CAPE

Early March h5 look has improved some on the last few runs of the GEFS, with a temporary PNA ridge going up and a wave tracking east under a Hudson/Baffin ridge. Might be a chance here.

12z GFS snows on us(mostly just south).

0z EPS indicating some changes in the Pacific with hints of a PNA ridge developing at the end of the run. GEPS is similar. Lets see how persistent this is, and if the GEFS trends that way. Not sure how sustainable it would be with the MJO forecast to emerge near the MC.

They have been depicting the classic Nino look with an Aleutian low, lower heights across the southern/eastern US, and NA blocking since late November for mid Jan-Feb-March. Maybe they finally get it right now?

Oh it can happen here. I had around 8 inches on March 20th 2018. The St Patty's day storm in 2014(I think) was another one- temps fell into the low 20s by mid afternoon with 6" of snow on top of ZR/sleet.

Unless there are some significant changes with the location and timing of the currently depicted key features, this is a mild storm with cold coming in behind. 50-50 High leading in? Locate the thermal boundary..

Imo, regardless of where we specifically live(piedmont, coastal plain) at our latitude, other than maybe the western highlands, long term snowfall climo-mean/median- simply cannot be the expectation or 'bar' for a good winter anymore. I will enjoy a snowless winter because it provides a wonderful break from the relentless heat and humidity(and bugs) of our long, long summers.

Arguably this here Nino is very much Nina like. We can start with the NS dominant pattern, and the tropical forcing that can't progress east of the MC for more than a minute.

That early Jan 22 event was THE(one and only) CAPE storm. Saw that potential when we were in the no way out, shit the effin' blinds pattern lol. That was the beginning of a pretty cold period that featured 3 snowstorms in Jan, 2 of which were focused east. Interior/northern crew got a moderate storm in Feb around the SB I believe. Pretty there was at least one other event that month that wasn't an 'eastern special'. But yeah, I don't fear a Nina, even though my yard often ends up on the western edge of a big coastal storm.

I get it. We have had this discussion before. Just making the point to him that it isn't that unusual for big snowstorms to occur in our region during a Nina. The early Jan 22 storm was a double digit snow for some, and not a coastal scraper. It was a juiced wave tracking along the boundary and impacted all but the very northern parts of our subforum.

Not really a southern jet like in a Nino, but during a +PNA/-EPO episode there can be a bit of a split flow and/or a wave embedded in the flow overtop the ridge and drops southward, then propagates eastward. The Jan 22 storms evolved from that type of pattern.

Jan 17, 18, and 22 all had big snowstorms that impacted eastern areas of the MA. 2018 also had the March storm that was a biggie for at least northern/eastern parts of our region. We are perfectly capable of getting a complete ratter regardless of ENSO state.

1/15 3.1" (ended as ZR) 1/19 5.0" 2/13 0.1" 2/17 1.4" Total: 9.6"

Hell of a Nino this has been lol. Ready to roll the dice with another Nina.

The subsidence on either side of that band probably produced a hell of a gradient over a short distance. Painful to be just on the outside lol.

Still cloudy here and holding at 32. The snow should disappear pretty quickly with a few hours of mid Feb sunshine.

Imo the ICON overall. It had the PA death band and lighter precip through our region. The Canadian didn't have a lot of precip anywhere really other than the western higher terrain. Euro trended towards reality its last few runs. GFS was pretty bad, depicting too much precip through the middle of our region, although it did have the PA death band. Side note- before I left work yesterday just for the hell of it I looked at the 12z GEFS members, and there were 6 or 7 that were notably dry through our region- they looked nothing like the op. I thought that was odd being so close to the event. As a forecaster, I would think something like that would have been a bit of a red flag and factored into the forecast.

Pretty sure the ICON nailed that death band across PA. Euro had it to some extent the last couple runs, and it had the low qpf for my area correct. GFS was pretty awful.

Started snowing here between 1-130. Just woke up and looking at radar, looks like it will be done in the next hour lol. Moderate snow falling now, looks like maybe 1.5" out there. A 3 hour event, with no banding. Eh, back to bed.

36/23 Not worried about the airmass. Just bring the fucking juice. Christ I sound like @WinterWxLuvr

The HRRR is the spice of life.

One thing I won't be doing is radar watching. No hallucinations or panicking about the back edge in sight as the first flakes fall. I'll start looking out the window a little after midnight. I might look out a few more times before going to bed and then again when I have to get up to take a piss.

Love the GFS. Can't say the same for the Euro. In the context of maximizing the potential for this storm, they are pretty far apart.

Everyone would have taken this a few days ago, when it looked like an inch or 2 was the likely outcome. BUT NOW IT FUCKING SUCKS! Euro can do some wonky shit approaching game time. I would trust the 3km NAM/GFS combo over this.