CAPE
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LOL I don't think I would use the last storm(fail) as an example. Objectively, they all had it wrong in unison bigtime, then backed off. I'm not going to give much credit to the one that was first to figure it out, if there was one. That was a model debacle across the board.
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Looks a little closer to the Euro than the GFS to me given the flow. And honestly, which model would you trust more? EURO or UKMET?
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IDK, maybe. Never see it mentioned in the AFDs. Probably an indication that it isn't given much consideration, yet.
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The AI is experimental. How about the Euro and CMC? And the UKmet?
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Look at the upper levels. Broader ridge, NW flow. More confluence. Gets crushed, shunted off the coast well south.
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Wow clearly a lot of weight given to the GFS. Didn't realize that. I will keep that in mind for future events with that product.
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Look I am rooting for the northern tier. I honestly don't care if I get more snow. Kinda done with it honestly. Above avg is way more than I expected going in, and 20+ days with snow otg in Jan. Unheard of these days. A- winter here. That said, the GFS is literally all alone, JMA aside lol. It can't event get the UKmet on its side.
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18z only goes out to 144. Based on the look of the flow in the upper levels, I would guess no.
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American global model awful lonely with this one. Wonder why?
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How far out can the NAM be extrapolated? GFS needs some help man.
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low of 18
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23 approaching 9pm. Cranked up the wood stove. Probably the last time this winter/early Spring.
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I just took a walk to the back of my land into the seasonal woodland wetland area, which usually has a foot of standing water by mid March when I apply the first round of larvicide. It is bone dry. No soft or swampy areas at all. I am guessing the water table is still a couple feet below the surface down there. It would take a couple heavy rains over the next 2 weeks to get it close to breaking the surface.
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Looks like the high will be 35 here. 34.5 now.
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12z GEFS pretty much agrees.
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I think the Euro probably has the right idea- no snow anywhere close.
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21 this morning
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Quiet in here. I am guessing HH GFS didn't snow on us.
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51 Heading outside to do some Spring things before the cold and wind arrives.
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Its here! March 1st. There will be a few brief colder spells over the next week to 10 days, but it looks solidly above normal on the means from mid month onward. Need some rain though.
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The 0z EPS and GEFS are underwhelming for that window, then the pattern is trough out west, ridge over the east through the end of the run. Nice look for those who want Spring.
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^I honestly don't remember that storm lol
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Probably. There is a bit of a signal on the 0z EPS. GEFS is similar. See what the ens means look like over the next several model cycles.
