CAPE

We got a very cold airmass with a TPV lobe in the middle of it stuck underneath a block, and it's not playing nicely with the southern stream energy as currently modeled.

Nice disco here from LWX- By the middle of the week, attention will turn to a potential winter storm approaching from the south and west. Recent trends have been for more separation between a southern stream disturbance (currently located off the Pacific Northwest Coast), and a northern stream disturbance (primarily composed of a shortwave currently moving from east to west along the northern periphery of an upper low currently centered over Manitoba and Saskatchewan). Greater spacing between these features would likely result in less interaction, and later phasing between these two disturbances, leading to a more southern storm track. This trend toward a more suppressed, southern track system started yesterday, continued with the 00z runs last night, and is even more prevalent within incoming 12z guidance. This trend toward a more southern track is leading to a trend down in snowfall totals across much of the area. While it still appears likely that most of the area will see at least some snowfall, a scenario where the northern half of the forecast area sees very little snowfall (nearly all in association with the northern stream system) is a distinct possibility now. That isn`t to say that the threat for a larger storm has gone away, it`s just that probabilities for that occurring have decreased greatly. At the moment, it appears as though southern Maryland currently stands the greatest chance for higher snowfall totals, as they`d be located closer to the southern storm track and eventual deepening coastal low. While the trend has been downward with snowfall totals, that doesn`t mean that there can`t be further shifts in either direction as we move closer to the event. The pattern across North America, as well as the North Pacific and North Atlantic is very complex at the moment, with numerous interactions between different disturbances yet to occur. This lends itself to some lingering uncertainty. Systems with lots of convection in the southern stream (as this one will) also commonly trend northward at short lead times. The upper level pattern to our northeast at the time of the system will likely be very blocked, so that potential for a northward shift back is somewhat limited, but still exists. So while the clear trend at the moment is very much toward a more southern track and lower snow totals, there is still time for things to change.

Fun storm. Snowed all day with temps in the mid teens.

Latest blend still looks good for many.

I think there could still be some adjustments. Maybe enough interaction-albeit late- such that the low slows down some, allowing better moisture transport further NW.

Guidance has consistently depicted southern stream energy inducing low pressure in the Northern Gulf and tracking NE off the NC coast. The differences have been wrt degree of interaction with NS energy and the potential to bring SLP closer to the coast with higher precip totals further NW. I also find it funny how universal the 'GFS caved' mantra was yesterday afternoon, and now somehow its the other way around lol.

6z EPS

Not here. This is the MA sub dude.

Latest Natty blend. Note there is zero indication of a miss to the SE. Not sure exactly why/how that has become a point of discussion.

A 'SE miss' isn't the same as places relatively further SE forecast to get somewhat higher amounts of snow, which is what the preponderance of current guidance is depicting. Ofc current guidance may not be completely correct about that and some adjustment NW can still occur.

We aren't screwed. High probability for accumulating snow for much of the region at this point. But the idea that in this setup the more likely 'fail mode' should be a track too far NW is just a little fucking silly.

There is a literal wall of Arctic HP to our N and NW leading into this event. The baroclinic boundary is suppressed to the south. Seems like some here are overlooking basic meteorology. The low will develop and track along the thermal boundary, and so it isnt surprising that places further SE are favored for the heaviest snow. The ens mean across guidance are literally screaming that this is the case.

Yeah it kind of pulls it together but a bit late.

CMC about to shit the bed

ICON is cold smoke

So I might get 30. Who else wants to shit on my porch?

This isn't a Miller B as depicted. Low pressure forms along the Gulf coast and moves up along the SE coast. The exact position and strength and where it tracks from there depends largely on the degree of interaction/phasing with the energy associated with the TPV, and exactly when that occurs. A little too late on the 6z GFS.

Could screw all of us and snow in SE VA and the Carolinas as the HH GEFS suggests. We just can't know yet.

As modeled there is strong and plentiful Arctic HP to our N and NW next week. Cold air will be in place. The thermal boundary will be displaced along/off the SE coast. Pretty solid signal for a coastal storm- exact details on the evolution and proximity to the coast yet to be worked out.

You should have posted the 2 day snow map. That's a hell of a signal.

1/6/25: 9.3" 1/11/25: 1.2" 1/19/25: 0.6" 2/11/25: 8.5" Total: 19.6" Over climo now and slightly more than Jan 22(19.4") which was the total for that winter.

A bit of a visual overestimate. I went out and measured before starting to shovel off the deck. 8.5". That is some pretty heavy snow. It was 30 when snowing, temp up to 31 now.