CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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I have the knack. I am an engineer. I am pragmatic and cold. Utter social ineptitude.
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Even that period is tricky. Guidance is still all over the place. Timing of shortwave energy up north/associated confluence and exact location and strength of HP at the surface are yet to be determined, and pretty much mean everything wrt p-type for our region.
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I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well.
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HH clown map through mid month
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He is kind of in the same boat as RevWarReenactor. Misses out/gets fringed on a lot of scrapers/sliders, and struggles with the marginal events where it snows just to the NW.
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The block is just beginning to get established at that point. We need some good wave timing up top, and not too much amplification of the shortwave to our SW.
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Keep an eye on the area of confluence to the north and the strength of surface HP. We want that 1037 high over southern Canada like the 12z run yesterday, not a 1030 sliding off the NE coast.
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That might be the textbook definition of a -NAO, but for practical purposes the NAO is solidly negative on the means by early next week. So is the AO. I somewhat agree that the advertised pattern for next week generally supports mixy events, but a mostly/all snow event is possible with favorable timing/less amplification.
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This is the upper level pattern for early next week. Suppression is not the failure mode I would be worried about with this look. Imo it wont be easy to get an all snow event. Best shot very northern parts of the region.
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It has sneaky potential. Should be included in the other thread probably, so this one can focus on next week.
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I've been super busy with work and haven't posted since Sunday. I skimmed the LR thread thinking I might make a post and couldn't really find a reason to. Things have certainly escalated over the last 2 days.
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A -PDO definitely tends to mitigate the impacts of an el Nino. Probably more so in our current regime.
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Here ya go. SER wasn't an issue.
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No. Last year guidance kept teasing with a classic Nino look- lots of action in the STJ with negative h5 heights across the south/southeast, and strong NA block developing- then the rug pull. Advertised pattern totally went to crap. eta- that was Feb. We did have a nice Nino-ish period in late Dec into Jan, with modest snowfall. SER wasn't an issue though.
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Given the lack of support from other guidance, that's pretty worrying.
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The 12th looks great- for PA northward
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GFS is just so unsteady compared to the Euro. Entertainment value anyway.
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We all waiting on the 12th..
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The GFS will ultimately cave, or its going to bust. Northern MD has a shot at some front end frozen and maybe some minor ZR before flipping to rain.
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I'm 100% confident an inch+ of snow isn't going to fall here. GFS is off its rocker lol. Most interesting aspect with this event is the potential for another half inch of rain after a few mangled flakes and 10 mins of sleet. Denting the drought.
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The overall signal for a winter storm in that timeframe has been notable to strong on the means for a few days. Impressive.
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Now that's some HL blocking right there
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h5 avocado with Barney at the surface
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Euro with an insane h5 look at the end of the run
