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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    For most it won't. I promise.
  2. CAPE
    Still a fair amount of spread in location and timing. I'm afraid we just can't know at this time.
  3. CAPE
    Yeah jettison this 'threat' from this thread. Detracting from all the fapping over epic h5 looks.
  4. CAPE
    What's the status of that 120?
  5. CAPE
    WB is fucked up.
  6. CAPE
    No debbing about this (looking at you WW) This was a good run on top of the 12z Euro. Similar idea.
  7. CAPE
    Oh and the missing panels..
  8. CAPE
    WB lag lol. I can never do PbP.
  9. CAPE
    We close!
  10. CAPE
    Okay, so lets do this! @stormtracker
  11. CAPE
    It is a literal thread the needle with wave timing. We need one piece of NS energy scooting out in front phasing into the 50-50 low to flatten the flow up top, then the southern shortwave to move east just behind, and then to keep it from sliding harmlessly eastward off the coast to our south we need the next piece of NS energy to capture it just as it approaches the coast to induce a strong low just to our southeast with plenty of lift/ dynamical cooling, but not a full phase and not too soon..
  12. CAPE
    There is an indication of 2 waves on the mean in the 12-14th window, but probably just timing differences among the members. Don't care enough at this juncture to look.
  13. CAPE
    12z GEFS likes the 13th a little more for frozen in our region than previous runs.
  14. CAPE
    There are a few ways it can work, but they all involve pretty intricate wave timing. I like what the 0z GFS did in phasing the 2 pieces of NS energy and then shifting it eastward into the 50-50 region, with the southern shortwave staying separate and lagging behind. Then the next piece of NS energy drops in and interacts with it as it approaches the coast, sharping the shortwave. That deepens the surface low in a good spot just off the coast to our south.
  15. CAPE
    That's a pretty flat ridge. Still have the low heights off Atlantic Canada, and check out the surface- pretty good look with HP in a good spot. That should be cold enough if there is a storm tracking underneath.
  16. CAPE
    The h5 pattern becomes generally favorable mid month, but it looks pretty dry until the 20th or so. Flow streams coming together overhead in the upper atmosphere inhibit lift/promote sinking via convergence/confluence.
  17. CAPE
    Mid month. As the pattern in the NA transitions towards a blocking regime, there is going to be a lot of vorticity flying around in the NS. As the block develops much of that energy will be consolidated/feed into the 50-50 low as the ridge over Greenland strengthens and builds westward. That sequence of events will promote surface HP over eastern Canada.
  18. CAPE
    ^More in agreement with the signal for frozen to our north on the GEFS. With no semblance of HP up north and a marginal airmass, it all hinges on a significant piece of northern stream energy running out in front at the right time to flatten the flow/create confluence. Didn't happen this run.
  19. CAPE
    Last few runs of the GEFS look less impressive in the NA compared to the EPS and GEPS towards PD. No idea what it means or if it even matters at this juncture. The overall idea across guidance is still on track.
  20. CAPE
    Op run at range. Although ens runs have been hinting at this outcome.
  21. CAPE
    Op run at range.
  22. CAPE
    Op run at range.
  23. CAPE
    Yeah that's not gonna help for PD. Suppression depression.
  24. CAPE
    That's a lot of cold HP lol
  25. CAPE
    Good start to HH
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