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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    12z GEFS for the 23rd
  2. CAPE
    Looks like it. A bit too north. Much different than the 0z run.
  3. CAPE
    The Pacific low encroaches on the west coast for a time and that means downstream we get airmasses that are modified. It looks temporary and with the favorable NA, it would come down to the exact track. With marginal cold around, we would need a low to track underneath and a bit off the coast to keep a flow from the north. Big dogs that wind up along the coast are always problematic to some degree for I95 and east even with arctic air initially in place.
  4. CAPE
    The majority of members on the GEFS favor a low track a tad further south. If that is the case then it really comes down to how much intensification of the coastal low occurs while it's still close to the coast, such that colder air comes in with the heavier precip still ongoing. There is no doubt this will be rain to start given the mild air ahead of it and track of the initial low. A bit of a longshot especially for the lowlands, but not out of the question. In our region places up near the PA line clearly have the higher chances for frozen.
  5. CAPE
    Still 2 weeks out but this might be the one. Impressive signal at this range.
  6. CAPE
    Latest blend
  7. CAPE
    GEFS and EPS look pretty much the same now, other than the GEFS being a bit drier. Signal is for appreciable snow north of the M-D line.
  8. CAPE
    Why does it have to be a top 25 storm? For someone who claims to be so desperate for snow, you have some pretty damn high standards. How about being happy with something more reasonable, like a 6-10" event. Again, these advertised 'epic patterns' don't always produce a big storm. They have failure modes too.
  9. CAPE
  10. CAPE
    Getting closer to something for around PD.
  11. CAPE
    Yep. A monster 50-50 low is especially noteworthy and often portends a major EC winter storm.
  12. CAPE
    These radical h5 looks need to produce something big.
  13. CAPE
    That really is one hell of a blocky look across the HL region. The hellacious 50-50 low says hold my beer to the impressive Aleutian low.
  14. CAPE
    It has been the outlier, and just made a move towards consensus. If the Euro makes a notable shift next run, I might stay interested. Places near the PA line probably have the best shot with this one.
  15. CAPE
    18z ICON still sucked btw.
  16. CAPE
    Interesting, kinda funny snippet from Mount Holly AFD on this event- A deep upper trough over the West Coast ejects into the southern Plains, and the base of the trough pinches off into a closed upper low over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states Sunday night. Surface low pressure develops out ahead of it and moves towards the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This is where the models go awry. The 12Z/08 ECMWF has the low passing through southern New Jersey and Delmarva Monday night, and then the low intensifies off the New Jersey coast as the H5 trough follows behind it Tuesday morning. This system then departs Tuesday afternoon. In terms of sensible weather, the predominant ptype will be rain on Monday, changing to snow over the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey Monday night and Tuesday as colder air filters into the region behind the departing low. A plowable snow is possible for those areas, and possibly even down to the Fall Line. The surface low is faster in the 12Z/08 CMC, with rain moving into the region earlier on Monday, and has the low over eastern Long Island by Tuesday morning. The storm is then gone Tuesday afternoon before the cold air filters into the region. This results in minimal snow accumulation. The outlier, though it has been a consistent outlier, is the 12Z/08 GFS. The storm is much slower, with the low still over North Carolina and Virginia Tuesday morning, and then passes through Delmarva during the day Tuesday before departing Tuesday night. With high pressure building in from the north, cold air advection will be underway, and temperatures drop to below freezing across much of the region. This results in at least a plowable snow across much of southern New Jersey and into Delmarva.
  17. CAPE
    We need that NS interaction. Really energizes it. More lift, quickly intensifying low pressure = heavy precip and column cooling.
  18. CAPE
    The timing of that NS shortwave digging south and beginning to phase is key. Even better this run.
  19. CAPE
    6z GEFS for the 20th. Not bad. On the northern fringe but its frozen lol
  20. CAPE
    A bit difficult to capture it in one 6 hour window, but you can see the spread in timing and low track among the members. The more southern track is the bigger camp.
  21. CAPE
    6z GEFS-
  22. CAPE
    GEFS has had that indication for several runs, but looking at the individual members it has mostly been timing differences. WB is shittier than normal this morning so I can't look at the latest run.
  23. CAPE
    PD looks suppressed for now. Pretty nice signal here. Plenty of spread at this range though. Best shot could be a couple days later.
  24. CAPE
    I was being facetious. The likely failure mode for PD is suppression, not a cutter. The window beyond looks more promising.
  25. CAPE
    Nope. Probably should root for a few more op run cutters to shift the hive northward.
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