CAPE

The GFS is kind of by itself with the more diffuse shortwave energy and flatter/colder solution.

Snow climo for Feb is pretty darn good for the lowlands too.

Rainfall event total- 0.93"

The takeaway from that product(specifically for that location) is that snow becomes at least possible around the 9th and the strongest signal is the 12-14th window, but that's 10+ days out. Even there a significant number of members have little or no snow. Overall still pretty scattershot. Imo the snow mean tools become more useful when there is consensus on a discrete threat inside 7 days. I will say given the advertised pattern progression, that window around the 12th does look interesting. Prior to that it's probably going to be more of a struggle to get snow for most of our region.

The 18z GEFS has that look. First time we are seeing an indication of an actual 50-50 low on the mean.

This is the period where things can really get interesting and set us up for the latter half of Feb into March. The NE PAC ridge amplifies and undergoes an anticyclonic wave break, forcing a significant piece of energy associated with the TPV rotating southward to push eastward towards Atlantic Canada, which in turn begins to build h5 heights into Greenland.. From there the progression continues, with additional energy dropping southward overtop the EPO ridge, flattening the SE ridge and initiating further amplification in the NA, with a potential atmospheric block developing around mid month.

There might be a shot next week for something minor, then again in the 10-12th window, but its low probability for our region imo. Indices/teleconnections favor mild here. We are now pattern chasing for the latter half of the month at this point, and there are some good signs, but no slam dunks. All been discussed ad nauseum already. Just a waiting game and monitor how the pattern evolves over the next 15 days to see what actually materializes.

It's D15 on an op run. Chill with the over analysis.

6Z GFS is all about it. Certainly are indications on the ensemble runs lately, with the Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain.

Improvement in the NA on the 18z GEFS- a little closer to a useful NAO block, thermal boundary pressed further south with below avg temps pushing into the MA for mid month. Still waiting on the Pacific to shift a bit.

Other than something transient, -NAO wasn't a thing that winter.

-NAO not always required for snow.

Nice gradient pattern. A well timed wave could bring a moderate snow event. Op and ens guidance have been hinting for this timeframe.

Hell of a front. Then back into the 60s by the 15th. Just an op run at range but looks like some volatility in the longwave pattern the first couple weeks of Feb. Buckle up. Probably a chance or 2 of frozen in there.

The AFC is tough with probably the 4 best QBs in the game. Only Burrow has managed to beat Mahomes to get to a SB to this point. Ravens need to find a way- which means not beating themselves.

Looks like its time to move on. How about Pagano? Hell of a hire imo. And less than 24 hours later, they part ways with Chris Hewett, long time defensive pass game coordinator and assistant head coach. That's no coincidence. If something happens with Harbaugh, Pagano will be the man

Either way, probably need to use one of those compensatory picks on a kicker. Tucker is on the downside. Maybe his mind was elsewhere when nailing all those kicks left.

That area also gets screwed because in addition to just missing on a lot of marginal events where it snows not too far NW, it often gets fringed on the sliders/coastal scrapers that usually come with really cold air in place and high quality snow. My yard isn't usually the bullseye for those but I get in on the northwest side enough to get some nice moderate events. That has happened a bunch of times since 2016 and partly explains why I have so many more warning level events(with snow on the roads!) than he has had up that way. The other advantage I have is my location is in the interior- I am not close to either bay, and also far enough north to avoid mixing/rain a fair amount of time.

Yeah if we get a similar pattern it's hard to imagine that massive southward displaced vortex would materialize again.

Ready for repeat

There continue to be suggestions on the ensemble guidance that a NA block might be in the offing around mid month and beyond. As advertised on this panel there is a -AO/NAO, in conjunction with a -EPO.

If the latest weeklies have a clue we will have quite a favorable h5 pattern for middle to latter part of the Month.