CAPE

The strongest signal for a MA winter storm has been around the 12th across ens guidance, and that went up a notch on the 0z runs. Surface depiction on the EPS. GEFS looks similar.

I'll check with Chuck.. All the teleconnections of interest are negative there, including the PNA lol. Chuck should be happy.

18z GEFS continues to suggest a storm around the 12th might be our first best shot, as most other ens guidance does.

HH GFS sure was active.. we need a Ji disaster post up in here. JK.

I don't think many are expecting the magnitude of cold we just experienced- or at least I hope not. It isn't likely to happen. Good news is we don't need that. February likes to snow on us, and the pattern being depicted around mid month and going forward could certainly produce a MA winter storm. Whether it actually does or not is another story.

Not necessarily, and split flow patterns tend to be more difficult for models to resolve in general. Most other guidance is more in line with the Euro.

They loving the GFS lol.

There is a pretty complex split flow pattern that probably explains some of the differences between the models for mid/late week. GFS is notably less amplified than the Euro.

Days are noticeably longer. Sunrise/sunset positions are notably different. I can sense Spring on the way, and its a bit depressing.

I don't think this is very good trend if you are a Polar Vortex.

We just experienced a longwave pattern that produced the coldest Jan in many years. Atmospheric memory.

Yeah I see some difference at the surface on WB. I generally only look at h5 on the extended product, and I don't trust it for more than 10 days beyond the end of the ens run it initializes from. Too prone to going to boilerplate ENSO climo. Don't we know it after last winter.

Euro? Looks pretty similar to the last run to me. Last couple runs have really picked up on the improved look in the NA, which makes sense given recent ens runs.

Sun and temps in the 40s and 50s mostly did in the last of the actual snow cover. The rain took care of the leftover patches and shrunk the piles, but more importantly it washed the roads of caustic salt.

Chuck told me thats a +NAO

Easy. Hug the one with a -PNA.

The GFS is kind of by itself with the more diffuse shortwave energy and flatter/colder solution.

Snow climo for Feb is pretty darn good for the lowlands too.

Rainfall event total- 0.93"

The takeaway from that product(specifically for that location) is that snow becomes at least possible around the 9th and the strongest signal is the 12-14th window, but that's 10+ days out. Even there a significant number of members have little or no snow. Overall still pretty scattershot. Imo the snow mean tools become more useful when there is consensus on a discrete threat inside 7 days. I will say given the advertised pattern progression, that window around the 12th does look interesting. Prior to that it's probably going to be more of a struggle to get snow for most of our region.

The 18z GEFS has that look. First time we are seeing an indication of an actual 50-50 low on the mean.