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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Similar to the CMC, but a tad further south and weaker.
  2. CAPE
    See what the 12z Euro does. The end of the 6z run was a significant improvement over 0z for that same time, and the EPS concurred. Gimmie a 1035 H in that same spot.
  3. CAPE
    12z GFS is not too far off. This run is similar to 6z. Need more southward dig of that NS vorticity ribbon. It's a bit flatter/further east than the 0z run, which was very close to something good. The area of convergence associated with feature that determines the location of surface HP. This run the high is more to the NE(and sliding out) instead of N/NW of the approaching low like 0z.
  4. CAPE
    It has a more distinct/sharper shortwave digging south into Ontario, and pops a pretty strong surface low directly north of our potential storm. That's not helpful at all.
  5. CAPE
    This is a discussion thread. No one cancels anything. People overreact sometimes. It's a weenie panic thing, and there is actually a special place for that.
  6. CAPE
    Check out the EPS- 6z vs 0z for the same time. The 0z mean still phased in some of the energy from the trough out west in the panels beyond this, with low pressure lifting further north towards the GLs as the high pressure overtop slides eastward. There is more separation from the western energy on the 6z run, and the HP to the north is in a better position. Looks like the low would track more east than north if the run continued beyond 144.
  7. CAPE
    Some good trends. Seeing much less interaction out west with the trough not digging as much. Less amped overall. It's going to take perfect placement/timing between the key features to get the result we want. A lot of moving parts in a progressive flow regime. No help in the NA. Need that NS energy up in Canada to dig enough and be in the right location to get the surface HP overtop the low as it tracks east. If that energy is out in front, associated HP slides east allowing the low to track northward on the backside.
  8. CAPE
    Pretty big change from 0z run.
  9. CAPE
    6z Euro at the end of its run. This is a good look. Surface low a tad too far north verbatim.
  10. CAPE
    The 6z run has a a little different wave timing wrt the NS vorticity and it doesnt dig as much- so less upper confluence/convergence in southern Canada, with the low track a bit further NW.
  11. CAPE
    The 0z GFS evolution was close to ideal. Looking at the surface, note the HP over southern Canada that I was referring to in the previous post.
  12. CAPE
    Bigger point is the models wont correctly resolve wave timing and interactions a week out. What I posted was the Euro from 18z yesterday at the end of the run, and the prior day 18z run at the same point. There has been a trend for less interaction with the trough out west, and differences in central/eastern Canada with NS energy resulting in a flatter more compressed flow- encouraging HP at the surface and potentially keeping the low further south/weaker as it moves eastward. That's our path to victory if there is one.
  13. CAPE
    I wonder if the outcome for next weekend might be etched in stone
  14. CAPE
    I'm going to enjoy the mild weather over the next 4 days. Looking forward to washing the cruddy jeep tomorrow. Cold will return by the end of the week, then be variable for a bit. Just have to wait and see beyond that.
  15. CAPE
    Feb is a week away. We haven't lost anything yet.
  16. CAPE
    I know I am just having a little fun with the Chuck -PNA thing. Some folks take this shit too seriously. Chill a little. Weather will happen. Fun to track and try to figure it out, regardless of the outcome.
  17. CAPE
  18. CAPE
    One more
  19. CAPE
    Photos from Terrapin today
  20. CAPE
    As the model guidance turns..
  21. CAPE
    You are being performative as usual. Our coldest avg high is around 40, depending on exact location. Using that metric, it always takes anomalous cold for it to snow. We have had plenty of significant snowstorms mid Feb into mid March.
  22. CAPE
    Probably 70% here, but I am in the woods. Out in the open areas its probably about 50. It will all be pretty much gone by Thursday. Hell of a run with snow otg. 20+ days
  23. CAPE
    High of 35. The real warmup begins tomorrow.
  24. CAPE
    Went to Terrapin today for a hike. Not surprising that there is more ice on the bay than I have seen in 10 years. I'll post a few pics later.
  25. CAPE
    So you think that means everyday will be above "normal" from tomorrow through the 21st then?
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